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Economics writer and analyst Macrobusiness | Yahoo Finance | https://nitter.cf/t.co/650ZahY2Lx You can help to support my content by subscribing at https://nitter.cf/t.co/oaLPzJDjsh
Australia
Joined August 2018
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Labor's primary vote has collapsed to be down over 47% in an electorate (and its predecessors) it has held since their inception almost 40 years ago.
This picture was on Reddit and honestly this is increasingly what its like in some locales.
One of my neighbours has 4 cars, one for each adult. Far more still have 3 cars.
This is just the reality of stunted household formation in modern Australia.
Some folks think its impossibly hard to live alongside people with different political views, and honestly I find this silly.
Yet putting aside differences and moving on from past events is at the core of the modern world.
People in places that have experienced unspeakable genocides have managed to move on to the best of their ability to coexist with people who were their blood enemy not long ago.
Yet somehow the West's internal divisions are too great to overcome for some people.
We need to ask ourselves why this is, why tribalism and operating in stark ideologically driven absolutes has become a core element of so many people's approach to life.
And then try like hell to fix it, because dehumanizing your enemies never ends well.
Home grown inflation in Australia (non-tradable) is running at 4.4% and that is set to rise amidst electricity subsidy driven base effects.
This is not a good place to be in and this was already an issue prior to the war.
And that is 100% on policymakers.
Chart: ABS
Unemployment rate for people with post-secondary school education aged 18-24 in Asia, Australia and a rest of the world average.
Chart: IMF
The exodus of people out of Victoria via interstate migration draws to a close after 23 straight quarters (rolling 12 month basis).
Meanwhile, NSW continues to shed over 20k people to net interstate migration each year.
Earlier today I was 2GB to discuss the politics and polling relating to the issue of immigration, along with some of the underlying statistics.
A copy of that discussion can be found on my YouTube here:
youtu.be/Z2mFCbUUQPg
If this keeps up, we have a significant problem...
Dies-hell...
With diesel prices looking to nudge $3 litre transport prices will increasingly be passed through to consumers. This is one of the factors the RBA is referring to when is fears inflation risks "materialising".
The underlying domestically-generated inflation that pervades the Australian economy leaves us susceptible to exogenous shocks.
Here we go again?
BREAKING: Iran has issued "Code 100," its highest alert level, for all armed forces in the past hour, covering the IRGC, the Army and security forces, per initial reports.
Trump cut short his weekend at Camp David to return to the White House tonight citing the potential for significant escalation, Netanyahu cut short his US trip to return to Israel the same day, and every US embassy in the Middle East has issued a security alert in the past hours.
Well said.
Rising workforce participation is celebrated, but it is never really asked by policymakers if people would choose to work, for example during their childs formative years if given the choice.
And that is what should be focus, people having the freedom to choose.
Two main economic and social factors. Policy pushes and society celebrates workforce participation as an unambiguous good as there is an economic outcome while ignoring any costs. And workforce participation is required for households formation as it is simply too unaffordable for most - at the heart of this, of course, is housing affordability.
'Australia’s fertility rate set to fall to alarming new low, new intergenerational report reveals'
Lets be honest, much of what has delivered us here have been government policy choices for over two decades.
And they dont prioritize pursuing a solution.
news24.com.au/politics/austr…
Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 29.2% (31.0% last weekend)
- Melbourne 40.5% (43.4%)
Both cities down significantly amidst higher volumes, but that still remain a shadow of what was listed for auction this time last year.
Sydney in particular is within a few percentage points of the all time lows on my figures.
This result lends credence to the commentary made by Louis Christopher of SQM Research, that low volumes were an absolutely key factor in supporting clearance rates.
Now they have risen only somewhat, the market appears to be faltering somewhat, although what role news of several rate rises on the horizon is playing is open to debate.
This weekend last year saw: 1153 auctions in Sydney and 1246 in Melbourne.
This week: 796 for Sydney and 913 for Melbourne.
While the results remain poor, they would be even weaker if auction volumes were normal.
In terms of SQM's figures from last week, Melbourne saw a relatively robust push higher, while Sydney fell back into the same range it has been in now for months.
For those wondering what is "normal" on my metric for this weekend of the year, the two cities in 2025:
Sydney: 46.2%
Melbourne: 54.7%
Both cities markets remain in a deeply challenging place and at face value on these numbers within the zone of major price falls.
Methodology in graphic below. #AvidAuctions
Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 31.0% (34.6% last weekend)
- Melbourne 43.4% (43.6%)
Sydney with a sizable fall back toward the recent lows. It will be interesting to see if this is repeated in SQM's figures come Tuesday.
Melbourne more or less exactly the same as last week, significantly better than the recent lows, but still in a zone consistent with major price falls.
Despite the relatively weak performances compared with historic clearance rates, in both locales depressed auction volumes are playing a role in supporting the market.
This weekend last year saw: 989 auctions in Sydney and 1184 in Melbourne.
This week: 706 for Sydney and 768 for Melbourne.
The seasonal increase in demand appears to be supporting both locales, but with supply not keeping up, its supporting clearance rates.
In terms of SQM's figures from last week, Sydney moderated slightly, but Louis Christopher correctly notes that the big story is the impact of lower volumes, not the moderate uptrend since the cycle lows.
Meanwhile, Melbourne gave up some of its recent gains and continues to trend somewhat down.
For those wondering what is "normal" on my metric for this weekend of the year, the two cities in 2025:
Sydney: 44.4%
Melbourne: 55.0%
Next weekend last year saw 1153 auctions in Sydney and 1246 in Melbourne, if volumes remain broadly where they are, the Spring selling season takes one big step closer toward being a giant nothing burger.
Interesting times ahead.
Methodology in graphic below. #AvidAuctions
'In a debate about migration, the ABC had to present multiple views. But where to draw the line?'
Come on.
The ABC could have chosen Leith van Onselen to represent the net negative migration side tactfully & based on facts, but they chose not to.
theguardian.com/media/2026/s…
'Bathla administrators find $700m hole in failed developer’s accounts'
More evidence the narrative this was driven by the tax changes in the federal budget dont add up.
afr.com/property/residential…
There is a concerted push today from some pro-Labor folks to claim the issue of migration is sorted.
Well, no.
The federal governments own National Housing Supply and Affordability Council estimates are based on the lower intake being realized already.
And their numbers show the housing deficit remaining massive out to 2030 and that is assuming a surge in construction that will arguably not come to pass.
If we extrapolate past that based on their methodology, its likely to persist well into the 2030s.
So not fixed at all, not even close.
Meanwhile, there is arguably zero or even negative net political benefit on delivering the level of migration you have been forecasting since October 2022.
Polling from overseas just how hard it is to be seen as fixing the issue of migration and that even in some countries with negative net migration, it remains a sore point for voters.
As much as people blame Rudd for the 'Big Australia' migration intake and the various issues that followed.
It was Howard who laid the groundwork and it was under Howard, not Rudd when household formation rates started to decline.
And its all got much worse since.
'Started to go off the rails': John Howard calls for calm in toxic immigration debate shorturl.at/ezCsL