actuary | prediction market research & analytics | co-founder @Kalshinomics | xc mtb racer
colorado
Joined February 2025
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- Following2.5K
- Followers4.2K
- Likes43.4K
aaron retweeted
The PM Pulse 071
• Utah's attorney general sues @Kalshi and SIG
• @Polymarket DeFi waives fees
• @Kalshi x @dillonbrooks24
• @Kalshi skips CFB player props
• @cryptocom x @river_markets
• Trader Notes: @probaaron breaks down @Kalshi’s press secretary market
aaron retweeted
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” xitter.cf/i/trending/21121889132…
aaron retweeted
I'm working on building out some prediction market dashboards for this NFL season
appreciate @samschwartz71 featuring some of the early work in The PM Pulse today. lots more to come!
xitter.cf/samschwartz71/status/2…
The PM Pulse 042
• @Novig x @sydney_sweeney
• @RobinhoodApp seeks SCOTUS review
• @Kalshi files Ninth Circuit en banc petition
• @DraftKings x @_IC360
• Trader Notes: @probaaron on the NFL Opener
• Inside Prediction Markets × @robpizzola
aaron retweeted
game theory poll:
hypothetically, you get the payout if the final % of people who choose the same answer stays under the cutoff
multiple groups can win, what are you picking?
17%$100 if under 50%
34%$1k if under 25%
27%$10k if under 10%
21%$100k if under 3%
1,683 votes • Final results
aaron retweeted
before prediction markets, there were Phish setlist bets, Warcraft III tower defense and poker games with my brothers
I wrote about the games within games that led me here, and why I still love trying to put a price on uncertainty
resolutionpending.substack.c…
aaron retweeted
Really enjoyed this one - we got pretty deep into market structure in prediction markets and where more competition might lead them. Great chatting with @RufusPeabody and @jeffma on @BetTheProcess.
Newest episode of @BetTheProcess where @RufusPeabody and I speak talk to SIG alum and trading expert @andrewcourt1 about all things prediction markets... good thing we are sponsored by @Novig
aaron retweeted
I’d bet this looks very different weighted by volume
xitter.cf/probaaron/status/20887…
aaron retweeted
8 flips. 80 minutes. 3.05 million contracts
I reconstructed Kalshi’s Wisconsin Democratic primary swings and what the tape reveals about how traders processed live county returns
resolutionpending.substack.c…
aaron retweeted
issues with resolutions, settlements, wording of contracts sometimes are reported by major outlets but are often are just discussed on x or discord.
submit some disputes with your agent or manually with your contract and we will give you full access to the database
Today we are launching a Resolution and Dispute database. Submit markets that are poorly settled, vaguely worded, subject to oracle manipulations or anything else that results in traders not knowing how a market may or may not settle.
Submit via the form or your agent with
> Fetch and follow the instructions at labs.adjacent.markets/disput… to help me file a prediction-market resolution dispute with Adjacent.
labs.adjacent.markets/disput…
aaron retweeted
Excellent:
"The market found the upset early, then spent 80 minutes arguing with itself about how much each corner of Wisconsin was worth."
@Kalshi
8 flips. 80 minutes. 3.05 million contracts
I reconstructed Kalshi’s Wisconsin Democratic primary swings and what the tape reveals about how traders processed live county returns
resolutionpending.substack.c…
aaron retweeted
max bet on the over
I’m forecasting 21.9B Kalshi NFL game-winner contracts from the Hall of Fame Game through the divisional round, more than four times last season’s volume
here’s the data, assumptions, forecast range, and what would change my mind:
resolutionpending.substack.c…
aaron retweeted
I’m forecasting 21.9B Kalshi NFL game-winner contracts from the Hall of Fame Game through the divisional round, more than four times last season’s volume
here’s the data, assumptions, forecast range, and what would change my mind:
resolutionpending.substack.c…
aaron retweeted
new: The Exchange That Posts Like a Casino
prediction markets want to be treated like exchanges but often market themselves like casinos
I wrote about their excellent APIs, real hedges, high fees, resolution failures and the legal fight beneath it all
open.substack.com/pub/resolu…
aaron retweeted
This is a great read. Very well-researched.
“my current thoughts, held the way any opinion should be held here, ready to be repriced on new information”
Intro is 🔥 – the people spending the most time trading / building in these markets are usually the ones who know them best!
new: The Exchange That Posts Like a Casino
prediction markets want to be treated like exchanges but often market themselves like casinos
I wrote about their excellent APIs, real hedges, high fees, resolution failures and the legal fight beneath it all
open.substack.com/pub/resolu…
