@probaaron
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actuary | prediction market research & analytics | co-founder @Kalshinomics | xc mtb racer
colorado
Joined February 2025
- Tweets6.1K
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Pinned Tweet
46M contracts traded on 49ers–Rams
I broke down the taker flow and added a new chart tracking prices after large sweeps to see which takers got the better of the trade
both charts and the full breakdown on Resolution Pending
resolutionpending.substack.c…
my timeline has been transitioning from prediction market twitter to gambling twitter
not sure it was an upgrade, but at least it’s better than crypto twitter
the worst part about Codex resets is that buying one resets your 7-day window for the next reset
I gave in and paid the $80, but would love if it didn’t reset that window, or at least gave you the option
nitter.cf/probaaron/status/21003…
I’ll miss the tight spreads and liquidity rewards on this market
I live a few miles from Red Rocks and have seen 15 shows there
nice to have this help fund next year’s concerts
one of my favorites - Vulfpeck in 2019
massive snowstorm and I got last-minute tickets for like $20
I wore full ski gear and the band wore snowsuits
reminder to self: stop flipping positions for tiny margins and liquidity rewards when much better off just holding
sanctuary yes to 80c+ 🤦♂️
new NFL chart: the last 24 hours of trading on Kalshi before kickoff
16.4M contracts traded on Broncos-Chiefs pregame. 94% of it in the final day, 11M at one price: KC 54¢
takers bought 9.6M Denver to 6.8M Kansas City
and the other 2 from the same game: taker flow per minute with cumulative flow and every sweep of 1k+ contracts
if you like these, consider subscribing to my Substack, Resolution Pending, where I post prediction market analytics and my takes on the space
resolutionpending.substack.c…
aaron retweeted
new NFL chart: the last 24 hours of trading on Kalshi before kickoff
16.4M contracts traded on Broncos-Chiefs pregame. 94% of it in the final day, 11M at one price: KC 54¢
takers bought 9.6M Denver to 6.8M Kansas City
curious what markout windows people use for live sports
I used 60s and 300s here, but a lot can happen between plays
which windows are most useful for identifying sharp taker sweeps? shorter intervals, longer ones, or measuring before the next play?
nitter.cf/probaaron/status/20984…
46M contracts traded on 49ers–Rams
I broke down the taker flow and added a new chart tracking prices after large sweeps to see which takers got the better of the trade
both charts and the full breakdown on Resolution Pending
resolutionpending.substack.c…
GPT-6 Astra is great until it randomly decides to be a coward
switch to Sol and it’ll just run with it
many Kalshi liquidity reward markets have disappeared from the incentives page, even though the API still shows them
I first noticed it on the Red Rocks 2027 markets
no comment from the team yet. are rewards still accruing, or should market makers consider pulling quotes?
the $35B estimate is somewhat in line with my $22B game-winner-only projection from last month
I’ll be revisiting my forecast in the coming weeks
article by @nickdevor_ in @barronsonline
nitter.cf/probaaron/status/20868…
I’m forecasting 21.9B Kalshi NFL game-winner contracts from the Hall of Fame Game through the divisional round, more than four times last season’s volume
here’s the data, assumptions, forecast range, and what would change my mind:
resolutionpending.substack.c…
aaron retweeted
I'm working on building out some prediction market dashboards for this NFL season
appreciate @samschwartz71 featuring some of the early work in The PM Pulse today. lots more to come!
nitter.cf/samschwartz71/status/2…
The PM Pulse 042
• @Novig x @sydney_sweeney
• @RobinhoodApp seeks SCOTUS review
• @Kalshi files Ninth Circuit en banc petition
• @DraftKings x @_IC360
• Trader Notes: @probaaron on the NFL Opener
• Inside Prediction Markets × @robpizzola
WTI crude back at $100 on Hyperliquid for the first time since May 21st
excited to keep collaborating with @samschwartz71 on Trader Notes and digging into the analytics in prediction markets
if you’re not already, go follow The PM Pulse, my go-to source for prediction market news and the #1 daily newsletter in the space!
nitter.cf/samschwartz71/status/2…
As you may have seen this morning in The PM Pulse 042, I included a new section, Trader Notes – high-signal analysis from leading traders in the industry.
3 takeaways stood out to me from PM trader and data analyst @probaaron on last night’s NFL opener:
1) About 10 minutes after Sam Darnold left the game, takers bought 1.2M New England contracts in a single minute.
2) After the final whistle, Seattle holders sold 572k contracts at 99¢ rather than wait for the $1 settlement – whoever was resting at 99¢ earned the last cent on every fill.
3) Of 58.8M contracts traded across both markets, 11.0M printed before kickoff and 47.8M during the game.
I’m looking forward to future collaborations with Aaron and his new Substack, Resolution Pending. If you’re a trader doing similar deep market analysis and want to highlight your top takeaways in The PM Pulse, please reach out.
Alongside The PM Spotlight and The PM Scoreboard, Trader Notes aligns with the mission of The PM Pulse: build the layer of market intelligence for prediction markets.
I'm working on building out some prediction market dashboards for this NFL season
appreciate @samschwartz71 featuring some of the early work in The PM Pulse today. lots more to come!
nitter.cf/samschwartz71/status/2…
The PM Pulse 042
• @Novig x @sydney_sweeney
• @RobinhoodApp seeks SCOTUS review
• @Kalshi files Ninth Circuit en banc petition
• @DraftKings x @_IC360
• Trader Notes: @probaaron on the NFL Opener
• Inside Prediction Markets × @robpizzola
awesome episode from an awesome podcast
I played MTG tournaments as a kid with a budget aggro red deck
fun hearing how that world can turn into a career in markets!
nitter.cf/halfkelly/status/20971…
NEW EPISODE:
From Pinnacle Sports to Jane Street
@TheZvi talks about Magic the Gathering, poker, trading sports, Jane Street, DFS, and his p(doom) for AI
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
