@prerichguy
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average observer of prediction markets
trenches
Joined February 2021
- Tweets6.2K
- Following228
- Followers940
- Likes14.3K
they're currently #4 by volume in the poly eco
and what's interesting is that their volume is spread across all kinds of sports:
from 2nd division women's cricket to the new zealand rugby championship
their biggest advantage here is that they have no fees and bring liquidity from 25+ bookies, exchanges, and prediction markets into one order book
but their deepest liquidity is in soccer - the #1 sport in the world with a massive global fanbase
here's an example:
today's UEFA Nations League - Georgia vs Northern Ireland
$220K volume vs $158K from their green US peers who recently got caught wash trading
and across the board, @magicmarkets has higher volume on these matches
pretty surprising
BS retweeted
cope. seethe. rage
Welcome to the finale
I partnered with the Wall Street Journal to release this article
Probably the single worst hit piece ever written about @Kalshi
Guess people will think twice before insulting me in public again
wsj.com/finance/currencies/5…
BS retweeted
This thread is 100% gonna blow up and I am gonna look like a salty c****again but @icobeast pissed me off so now it's gonna get ugly
Kalshi fakes their crypto volume and I can prove it
NOTHING pisses me off more than watching a company treat its own customers like complete fucking idiots
Grab some popcorn cause I dissected every piece of evidence one by one until there’s basically no way for him to respond without making this look even worse
Oh and FYI, I left every source at the end so y’all can check the receipts yourselves 😘
1/x
BS retweeted
very suspicious and kinda funny situation in Black Phoenix vs Lavked match
imo this was basically a signal for free money and nobody took it seriously
a tier 3 cs2 tournament with pretty average teams
the market on poly did >$219.72K in volume
that's 5-8x higher than the previous matches at this tournament:
$24.59K, $58.06K, $85.18K Vol.
and then there's this
on this exact match, several accounts placed $2K-$5K positions within the same hour
same market
same positions
same entry time
same account creation time
same deposit time
i don't want to make baseless accusations
but was this basically a 322 match? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
🚨 Major fix alert — Black Phoenix again.
Under normal circumstances, I’d make Lavked slight favourites. Instead, they’re clear underdogs.
Pinnacle’s margin on this match is a massive 14.6%, compared with the usual 7.0% or less. Limits are also at the minimum. Looks like Pinnacle has hit the emergency brake on this one.
Meanwhile, I found six (6) Polymarket accounts created TODAY, each holding a Black Phoenix position worth over $5,000. I’ve included three of them in the screenshots.
All six accounts were created today. Their first and only bet is on Black Phoenix to win this exact match — and they’re taking poor odds, too.
Why would anyone create an account just to bet several thousand dollars on a match like this?
Coincidence?
very suspicious and kinda funny situation in Black Phoenix vs Lavked match
imo this was basically a signal for free money and nobody took it seriously
a tier 3 cs2 tournament with pretty average teams
the market on poly did >$219.72K in volume
that's 5-8x higher than the previous matches at this tournament:
$24.59K, $58.06K, $85.18K Vol.
and then there's this
on this exact match, several accounts placed $2K-$5K positions within the same hour
same market
same positions
same entry time
same account creation time
same deposit time
i don't want to make baseless accusations
but was this basically a 322 match? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
🚨 Major fix alert — Black Phoenix again.
Under normal circumstances, I’d make Lavked slight favourites. Instead, they’re clear underdogs.
Pinnacle’s margin on this match is a massive 14.6%, compared with the usual 7.0% or less. Limits are also at the minimum. Looks like Pinnacle has hit the emergency brake on this one.
Meanwhile, I found six (6) Polymarket accounts created TODAY, each holding a Black Phoenix position worth over $5,000. I’ve included three of them in the screenshots.
All six accounts were created today. Their first and only bet is on Black Phoenix to win this exact match — and they’re taking poor odds, too.
Why would anyone create an account just to bet several thousand dollars on a match like this?
Coincidence?
one of the wallets from this cluster:
polymarket.com/profile/0x94d…
BS retweeted
Calling all crypto twitter.
I'm proud to announce that Jacob Horne @js_horne has joined Polymarket. He will be working closely with me on product, in particular making Polymarket DeFi great again.
Jacob is amongst the best product and innovation minds in crypto. Before this, he was CEO of Zora. He built multiple beautiful products (I was one of the first users of the first version in 2020). Now he's got the PMF and distribution of Polymarket. I'm so excited to work with him.
We'll be hosting a Polymarket DeFi town hall soon to hear from our longtime users and lay out the plan to make the Polymarket DeFi product the best it’s ever been. In the meantime, DM your feedback to @js_horne or me and we'll action it.
To the DeFi community, we know the performance of the onchain product has waned as we've scaled, and it hurts us to hear the frustration of the people who love Polymarket and have supported us for so long thinking we’ve pivoted all focus to US, but just know we're working behind the scenes to unify the products and make Polymarket better than ever, across all surface areas.
BS retweeted
Polymarket was the most downloaded app for sports in week 1.
Looking forward to week 2.
NFL Week 1
Sports Betting
& Prediction Market
App Downloads
Total: 3.0M
Top Sites
762K @Polymarket
592K @Kalshi
415K @DKSports
265K @FanDuelSports
139K @SleeperHQ
104K @bet365_US
97K @HardRockBet
⏯️ via Citizens
BS retweeted
there's a pretty funny situation involving a CIS CS tournament & Polymarket
there's a LAN tournament happening in Moscow rn, also covered by HLTV
these matches are listed on polymarket as well as different bookies
but unlike bookmakers, canceled matches on polymarket can resolve 50/50, meaning everyone gets the same payout regardless of the price they bought at
and apparently some yung cs players started abusing this:
they would register for the tournament -> pay the entry fee -> get their match listed on polymarket -> then one of the players wouldn't show up for some made-up reason -> the match gets canceled -> profit
the tournament organizers eventually caught the scheme and disqualified one of the teams
they also added a new rule to prevent similar situations from happening again
pretty interesting case
i wouldn't be surprised if something similar happened somewhere else too, not just in cs
what do u think?
there's a pretty funny situation involving a CIS CS tournament & Polymarket
there's a LAN tournament happening in Moscow rn, also covered by HLTV
these matches are listed on polymarket as well as different bookies
but unlike bookmakers, canceled matches on polymarket can resolve 50/50, meaning everyone gets the same payout regardless of the price they bought at
and apparently some yung cs players started abusing this:
they would register for the tournament -> pay the entry fee -> get their match listed on polymarket -> then one of the players wouldn't show up for some made-up reason -> the match gets canceled -> profit
the tournament organizers eventually caught the scheme and disqualified one of the teams
they also added a new rule to prevent similar situations from happening again
pretty interesting case
i wouldn't be surprised if something similar happened somewhere else too, not just in cs
what do u think?
BS retweeted
Polymarket's US business hit all-time highs in every metric this weekend, and became the #3 app in America.
Polymarket US only launched publicly on May 12. Tech is now ready for scale. And scale we shall.
BS retweeted
Jumper says there will be an important announcement this week
but as many know, this team loves to keep attention on their platform by hyping up crypto farmers and their airdrop expectations
i think we're getting another platform update, just like we've seen many times before when they teased a "big announcement"
no airdrop. no token. no tge
as they keep saying in discord multiple times a day: the ceo said on an ama that there won't be a token
and honestly i understand them. why would they need a token when so many people already use their product? it's actually a really good dex
but if you also don't believe they're launching a token, there's a great option on polymarket:
they recently added a market on whether jumper will launch a token by the end of 2026
right now there's a 66% chance of no token
pretty tasty odds
market: [polymarket.com/event/will-ju…]
Jumper says there will be an important announcement this week
but as many know, this team loves to keep attention on their platform by hyping up crypto farmers and their airdrop expectations
i think we're getting another platform update, just like we've seen many times before when they teased a "big announcement"
no airdrop. no token. no tge
as they keep saying in discord multiple times a day: the ceo said on an ama that there won't be a token
and honestly i understand them. why would they need a token when so many people already use their product? it's actually a really good dex
but if you also don't believe they're launching a token, there's a great option on polymarket:
they recently added a market on whether jumper will launch a token by the end of 2026
right now there's a 66% chance of no token
pretty tasty odds
market: [polymarket.com/event/will-ju…]
SABALENKA. PEGULA. GAUFF. RYBAKINA.
Tonight the US Open women’s final is priced in cents.
Four names. Top 4 seeds. First time since 1975 all of them are in the semis.
Match 1
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
SAB 64.9c / 63.2c
PEG 36.7c / 35.4c
Volume already $43k
Two-time US Open champ vs the home crowd on Ashe.
64.9c is not a vibe. That is the market saying Sabalenka is about a 65% favorite.
Match 2
Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina
GAU 50.0c / 48.1c
RYB 51.8c / 50.4c
Volume $73k
Coin flip. Bigger book than the first semi.
Gauff on her court. Rybakina with the serve that travels at night.
That is not a bookie line.
That is a live price you can trade.
On @magicmarkets every cent is a probability.
65c = the market giving Sabalenka a ~65% chance.
50c / 52c on Gauff-Rybakina = the book cannot pick a winner yet.
Think 65c is too rich? Sell Sabalenka. Buy Pegula.
Think 50c on Gauff at home is cheap? Take her and exit when the break hits.
You do not wait for the last point.
Break of serve hits, the book reprices, you close and lock it in.
That is the difference.
MagicMarkets pulls liquidity from 25+ sportsbooks, exchanges and prediction markets into one book.
So when the night session opens you can still get filled. Pre-match. Live. And on the way out.
Zero commission. No winner limits.
Same book tonight. Two women’s semis. One men’s semi already listed for Friday:
Zverev vs Khachanov
Don’t pick a winner.
Trade where the market is wrong.
This is another US Open match I’m paying close attention to today
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula - I’m taking Sabalenka here
Pegula has been playing some really good tennis this season and I expect another competitive match
But I still think Sabalenka has the edge
She leads the H2H 9-4 and has beaten Pegula in their last two US Open meetings
Sabalenka’s power is a huge factor for me
If she can keep the unforced errors under control, I think she has enough firepower to take control of the match
The live markets on @magicmarkets:
→ Sabalenka to win - 64.9¢
→ Pegula to win - 36.7¢
And the game handicap:
→ Sabalenka -3 - 50.7¢
→ Pegula +3 - 52.3¢
I’m backing Sabalenka here
At around 65¢ on the winner market, I’m comfortable taking her side
She has already shown she can handle Pegula on this stage, and I’m expecting another big performance tonight
Who are you taking?
you might be overpaying for your predictions and not even realize it
take the US Open men's final - Zverev vs Shelton
@magicmarkets once again has better prices than both Kalshi and Polymarket
1. Zverev:
magic markets - 1.70
kalshi - 1.66 (-2.4%)
polymarket - 1.65 (-2.9%)
2. Shelton
magic markets - 2.38
kalshi - 2.26 (-5.0%)
polymarket - 2.30 (-3.4%)
yea the difference doesn't look huge
but if you're making predictions regularly those few percent can become a serious amount over time
and Magic Markets doesn't even charge you a fee on top
better price + no fees
think about it.
let's take the us open final - Sabalenka vs Rybakina
let's compare the prices from the top 2 prediction markets, polymarket and kalshi, and add @magicmarkets to the comparison
as you can see, magic markets offers better prices on both players, with the difference ranging from roughly 2% to 5%
for Sabalenka:
magic markets 1.74 > polymarket 1.68 > kalshi 1.66
even these small differences might not look like much
but over the long run they can add up to a pretty serious amount
BS retweeted
let's take the us open final - Sabalenka vs Rybakina
let's compare the prices from the top 2 prediction markets, polymarket and kalshi, and add @magicmarkets to the comparison
as you can see, magic markets offers better prices on both players, with the difference ranging from roughly 2% to 5%
for Sabalenka:
magic markets 1.74 > polymarket 1.68 > kalshi 1.66
even these small differences might not look like much
but over the long run they can add up to a pretty serious amount
Aryna Sabalenka x Elena Rybakina are playing for $8.3M today
1st place - $5.5M
2nd place - $2.8M
in just a few hours we'll know who wins US Open '26
if you're watching and want to make a prediction, @magicmarkets has some really good prices compared to other books
Rybakina - 2.30
Sabalenka - 1.74
for me, Sabalenka looks stronger in this matchup
she still leads their head-to-head 10-7
and let's not forget that Elena had an injury before the tournament and hasn't really faced the same level of aggression on return in new york that a confident Sabalenka can bring.
let's see if Aryna can take the title
let's take the us open final - Sabalenka vs Rybakina
let's compare the prices from the top 2 prediction markets, polymarket and kalshi, and add @magicmarkets to the comparison
as you can see, magic markets offers better prices on both players, with the difference ranging from roughly 2% to 5%
for Sabalenka:
magic markets 1.74 > polymarket 1.68 > kalshi 1.66
even these small differences might not look like much
but over the long run they can add up to a pretty serious amount
Aryna Sabalenka x Elena Rybakina are playing for $8.3M today
1st place - $5.5M
2nd place - $2.8M
in just a few hours we'll know who wins US Open '26
if you're watching and want to make a prediction, @magicmarkets has some really good prices compared to other books
Rybakina - 2.30
Sabalenka - 1.74
for me, Sabalenka looks stronger in this matchup
she still leads their head-to-head 10-7
and let's not forget that Elena had an injury before the tournament and hasn't really faced the same level of aggression on return in new york that a confident Sabalenka can bring.
let's see if Aryna can take the title
Aryna Sabalenka x Elena Rybakina are playing for $8.3M today
1st place - $5.5M
2nd place - $2.8M
in just a few hours we'll know who wins US Open '26
if you're watching and want to make a prediction, @magicmarkets has some really good prices compared to other books
Rybakina - 2.30
Sabalenka - 1.74
for me, Sabalenka looks stronger in this matchup
she still leads their head-to-head 10-7
and let's not forget that Elena had an injury before the tournament and hasn't really faced the same level of aggression on return in new york that a confident Sabalenka can bring.
let's see if Aryna can take the title
the Champions league is BACK.
and they couldn't have picked a better game to start with:
Real Madrid vs Inter
two giants. decades of history. trophies everywhere.
and while everyone is waiting for the match i'm looking at the prices and honestly wondering how this is possible.
found some really better prices on @magicmarkets.
while other books' odds are already getting worse as people keep pushing the price down
magicmarkets still has some of the best prices you'll find anywhere.
try to find better. i dare you. of course besides poly xd
BS retweeted
Polymarket just compensated ~3,000 wallets affected by the last CLOB outage
and now the CLOB is down again
the Predictions Trading API is currently experiencing another outage
ah shit, here we go again
some users were affected during last week’s CLOB downtime
we want to make this right, and goodwill credits are going out today
around 3,000 wallets got goodwill credits automatically.
if you think you were affected and did not receive a payment, reach out to me at [email protected] with your details by friday september 18 and we will personally review
more details: poly.market/clob-outage-deta…