Markets...Value...Macro...

Asia
Joined August 2009
I sold $SNPS post spike Now book has 0 AI exposure which i have been trying to get to Past 2yrs portfolio was dominated by AI & feel the trade is mature now & i get better risk/reward else where I'm long $BKNG $MCD $TTWO $BLDR $LEN Heavy value tilt 🧵
3
10
3,232
I got so much shit for this tweet on $MU It's exactly the day $MU peaked
I have no position in memory I read $MU SCAs details & it looks bearish to me $MU is entering 5y deals with current market price as ceiling $MU is locking in current market prices for 50% of its revenue is this really bullish?
6
2
10
3,916
Imo the single most bearish chart for the AI trade here Inference in only ~37% of compute usage Source @SemiAnalysis_
1) Trying again. 
TLDR: Everyone can win. Open-source, frontier labs, infrastructure, applications and most importantly the American people.   I understand all of the jitters about Anthropic losing share, real rates, spreads and second derivatives. Still think the most likely future outcome is a hybrid, multi-model future where almost everyone wins, open-weight tokens are likely the overwhelming majority of tokens, the dominant frontier model companies still do well albeit perhaps not the outcome that seemed possible in May and AI infrastructure/applications benefit immensely from the increased fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer.   Lower margins at the model layer mechanically drive higher compute demand as long as someone is willing to pay for the training. And Jensen is obviously willing to be the “trainer of last resort.” As below-market compute contracts signed in 24/25 roll-off and reprice higher, cloud and neocloud revenue should continue to accelerate which will help address financing fears; I think we may be near peak external financing for this buildout. Noteworthy that using data from 3Fourteen Research, B200 clusters will generate a 37% IRR *if* their rental price declines 40% per year. Prices are still going up, but that IRR math is too ridiculous to print. 37% IRRs available at scale should get funded. Re: this weekends controversy about MOUs, Anthropic’s $413 billion of real contractual commitments sounds scary. Reality is that it works out to roughly $31 billion of annual cloud spend, which is easily internally financed given their reported ARR, and $161 billion of spend at Broadcom which will be financed by Broadcom and private credit. Continue to believe fragmentation at the model layer is the best outcome for ordinary Americans and humans everywhere. As I have said before, do not trust any 5-20 individuals to make the best possible decisions about the direction of this technology. I want as many AIs as possible to maximize the odds that they encompass the diversity of human values across the world and richness of human variation. And I want an AI that shares my own personal values. Safety, freedom and the maximization of human agency through democratization, distribution and diffusion vs. centralization. History has spoken on the dangers of the latter path. Finally, from my perspective anything that slows this buildout down is net positive over the long-term as the biggest risk and worst outcome is an *actual* overbuild. We are structurally short watts, wafers and increasingly capital. That is all good. God forbid we were still in ZIRP, TSM ramped capex to 3x their current plan and we weren’t short turbine blades: there would almost certainly be an overbuild and a bubble. That would be terrible. Slower and smoother for longer is better both for investors and for the world. A terrible cyber event is the most plausible near term bear case IMHO, but AI cyberdefense ramping quickly and I was happy to hear Sholto say that cyber probably becomes defense dominant in the near future.   Longer, threaded version follows:
60
41
14
512
135,193
$TTWO “The engine, the tools and the team we’ve built during this project will allow us to do things more quickly”
4
1,003
$TTWO management hinted earlier PC version in late Sep as AI accelarating porting This is good news as PC version out faster & lower cost Earlier PC version has nothing to do with low console version demand Management showcased it as a positive
Citi met $TTWO management. Key takeaways: -focused on GTA online, no timeline given -AI accelarating console to PC porting -no weakness in mobile or NBA2K Imo GTA online & PC version might come sooner than expected accelarated by AI
1
3
844
QSR Sep visits growth was best since Apr $MCD
3
670
$META muse is going to fail
Nearly every shopping site I try is now blocking Instinct and Muse. Are we cooked?
24
3
1
101
20,001
MacroValue retweeted
$TTWO : BofA reiterates Buy, $368 PT, says current stock price of $209 too cheap with mobile free option BofA splits out PC/Console-only EPS of $10.7 for FY28E, implying just 20x at current price versus peer multiples, with mobile upside unpriced. Estimates hold at 45mn GTA 6 units FY27E and $2.19bn GTAO Bookings FY28E. Biggest debate is the $1bn-$3bn Street spread on GTAO Bookings, tied to a Jan/Feb launch timing and a $200-250mn 2H RCS step-up.
1
7
1,165
$BKNG was supposed to be worst hit due to $META Muse $BKNG app MAUs seems to be outperforming in Sep in US GS "In the US, Booking.com (+19% YoY) & Priceline (+10% YoY) saw the most significant MAU growth in the quarter (Q3)."
4
1
34
3,876
$META Muse DAU estimate flat around 2mio for the past 10 days the hype is abating
21
7
1
125
26,368
Thanks to the latest leaks, GTA6 is going to sell millions more at launch $TTWO
2
2
7
2,854
Check out new GTA 6 gameplay details from our big interview with Rockstar North's Rob Nelson. For more: bit.ly/472Cv1k
3
837
Sep was the best month for QSR foot falls since Apr $MCD
535
Not yet. Very soon.
No short squeeze here: Goldman's most shorted basket took out 2 months lows.
2
4
993
$BNKG website traffic growth looks fine
3
5
1,424
Tons of people reporting Muse fails as websites block agent access This could turn ugly for $META $BKNG is too cheap here
So in the last two days about half of my Muse use cases have vanished because the browser won’t do it any more. Are websites changing their policies? Bot detection???
18
3
1
153
29,407
Single-Family Home Starts Aug grew YOY $LEN $BLDR
2
3
840
$META Muse is increasingly useless with agent blocks. This weekend, best deal Fucker could get me on rental car was more for exact same rental via $BKNG website and significantly more than Booking app price. Muse's price was over 25% higher. All of these were Hertz, same car model, same pickup location and airport drop-off. Just now trying to have it handle an Amazon customer service issue and is blocked. I did hear they blocked Meta Muse but was thinking/hoping doing this via my PC browser would be different. Nope. Muse is feeling a little bit overhyped at this point. Will be interesting to see if usage drops off as people hit a wall on what to do with it.
39
8
4
185
29,243
New home sales has held pretty stable even with volatile mortgage rates
1
6
927
Existing home sales remains depressed which supports new homes sales
2
265