Here's a cool new quiz my colleagues developed. Where do you fit? pewresearch.org/journalism/q…
Can AI models replace traditional polling? New report from colleagues at Pew Research Center finds that AI-generated survey results struggled to accurately reproduce the findings from high-quality public opinion polls in a variety of ways. Read more at pewresearch.org/?p=549336
Almost 70% of national polls in 2024 were weighted on party affiliation or past vote. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows it has made polls modestly more accurate. New report: how it works, how we do it and its limits: pewresearch.org/methods/2026…
Three ways to correct a poll’s political balance: weight on self-reported party affiliation, self-reported past vote, or voter file data such as party registration. Each has strengths and weaknesses. No one approach is clearly superior in all contexts.
Bogus or fraudulent respondents constitute one of the most urgent problems in online opt-in polling. This new report by my colleague Andrew Mercer looks at three methods toidentify bogus cases but finds no surefire solution pewresearch.org/methods/2026…
pollcat retweeted
Do you feel like you don’t fit in as a ‘Democrat’ or a ‘Republican?’
Our new political typology shows this complexity, sorting the public into nine distinct groups based on their political and cultural values.
The result is a picture of American politics with far more than just red and blue.
ALT Chart of The 2026 Pew Research Center Political Typology.
The AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling released its final report today aapor.org/wp-content/uploads…
Today's release of the 2025 NPORS survey and data wasn't the only thing we were up to. Here's a piece on why we decided to add past vote to our survey weighting and how it's done pewresearch.org/decoded/2025…
Calling all data nerds! Pew Research Center has just released its 2025 edition of NPORS, with estimates of U.S. party affiliation, religious affiliation and frequency of internet use. See the fact sheet and links to the dataset at pewresearch.org/methods/fact…
And here are party affiliation trends from six years of NPORS data pewresearch.org/politics/fac…
We took a broad look at social trust in America today. With a survey of almost 37,000 people we were able to look at levels of trust across the states and even in metro areas. Check out our new report here pewresearch.org/SocialTrust
My colleague @katschaeffer and I contribute a chapter about covering election polls for this new edition of The IRE Journal. Check it out!
The latest edition of The IRE Journal dives deep into elections: ire.org/product/ire-journal-…
Our writers offer guidance on navigating disinformation danger from artificial intelligence, investigating campaign finances and gerrymandering, finding alternatives to traditional horse-race reporting, and more.
ALT The IRE Journal, cover of Third Quarter 2024 edition. AI-generated art shows a robot-figure typing/looking at computer screens with social media icons. Text: The elections issue How to fight Al-driven disinformation STORY BY PEN AMERICA • PG. 22 Other stories featured on cover: Campaign finance exposed / Essential tips from OpenSecrets, Global election investigations / GIJN highlights at IRE24, Reporting on survey data / Pew Research for journalists
We put together a little grab-bag of things to know about election polling in the US, for example that polling methods are quite different today than in 2016, that the margin of sampling error captures just one of several kinds of error, and much more pewrsr.ch/3iay5d5
pollcat retweeted
In our new survey, only 24% of voters say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Biden; 58% say the same of Trump.
Meanwhile, about twice as many voters describe Trump as mean-spirited (64%) than say that about Biden (31%). pewrsr.ch/4bzF6zH
ALT Chart shows Only about a quarter of voters say Biden is ‘mentally sharp’; nearly two-thirds describe Trump as ‘mean-spirited’
pollcat retweeted
NEW A pair of candidates with some notable personal weaknesses:
Just 24% of voters - including 53% of his supporters- say Biden is "mentally sharp."
Just 36% describe Trump as honest.
64% - including 39% of his supporters - say Trump is "mean-spirited."
pewresearch.org/politics/202…
Now available from Pew Research Center: the annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS), which interviewed 5,626 U.S. adults identified via address-based sampling with a 32% response rate. View key estimates and download the data: pewrsr.ch/3ukleLR