Public opinion, political data. Visiting senior fellow, German Marshall Fund Former director of political research at Pew Research https://xitter.cf/t.co/26XJFRBraQ
Washington, DC
Joined February 2010
- Tweets14.8K
- Following10K
- Followers8.2K
- Likes2.7K
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Gut punch. The kind and funny and brilliant @AnnHornaday has left us. One of my absolute favorite colleagues during my years at the Washington Post. A delightful movie critic, and a class-act human being. RIP, dear Ann.
washingtonpost.com/obituarie…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
News: GOP-aligned SLF didn’t spend on broadcast in GA last week. Neither did Dem-aligned SMP.
SMP will also be dark again this week, the group shared first w/POLITICO.
More on the quiet $$ pullback + game of chicken in GA’s Senate race, w/@lisakashinsky
politico.com/news/2026/10/19…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
"One-quarter of Americans dislike both major political parties, but as often happens, these “double-haters” swing against the party in power, favoring Democrats by 58 percent to 32 percent in support for Congress." washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Just 13% of Americans said they were worse off financially under Trump before the 2018 midterms. 48% say this now, the highest in polls since 1986. From our Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
“What about us?”
This captures Laura Lytle so perfectly. She yelled it on 1/6 to Capitol Police on Senate floor during evacuation, getting us & staff to safety.
I recall it so clearly. Yet it’s how she approached her job with us every day. RIP.
rollcall.com/2026/10/15/jour…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
For my column this week - where I see issues in polling data that could point to trouble, and my unorthodox decision to weight on religious affiliation in my own polling ⤵️
The biggest question is whether the polls have the electorate right or are undercounting Republicans who aren't excited about voting this year but might still turn out.
@nataliemj10 with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
buff.ly/yPHg2zl
The Wild West - or, basically, choose your own adventure. Helpful guide from @sfcpoll to the confusing landscape of election polling.
Welcome to the Wild West of election polling washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Americans oppose live-streaming Nidal Hasan's execution, 80%-18%, per a new WaPo-ABC poll.
But one group supports it: MAGA Republican men, who back it 57%-42%.
Carroll Doherty retweeted
MOTIVATION FOR 2026: Democrats maintained a large motivation lead earlier in the year to vote in the 2026 midterm. Now it has narrowed.
Wow - this from new @FoxNews poll. In 2022, GOP led Democrats by ...
21 points on border security
13 points on inflation
Today the Republicans ...
Lead by 8 points on border security
Trail by 16 on inflation - a 29 pt. swing since 2022
foxnews.com/politics/fox-new…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
In 2024, a diverse coalition of voters backed Donald Trump, united by the belief that he was the right candidate to repair the ailing economy. Two years later, that same coalition has splintered.
Read the latest column from @amyewalter:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
this is right. It's just a question of whether it's truly bad enough for Ds to really flip these red state Senate races
Carroll Doherty retweeted
The @sfstandard is quickly becoming *the* must-read paper for anyone on the west coast.
Thrilled to be joining a startup news outfit with so much ambition @sfstandard! The AI age is reshaping society as we know it; my job is to chronicle the people guiding the way.
You can sign up to read my regular reported news column at sfstandard.com/theo
And send me tips!
Carroll Doherty retweeted
"Perhaps the survey’s single most telling result is the collapse of support for tariffs among blue-collar workers — the policy’s intended beneficiaries." 👀 agglomerations.eig.org/p/ame…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
One of the reasons I’m most excited about joining @sfstandard is the all-star team. Have been so inspired by my conversations with @grifftgaff, @delaney, and @EFRalph and I know that they — and now we — are building something special here.
sfstandard.com/2026/10/14/th…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
We're in the last 3 weeks when polls get graded.
I built a tool that breaks down polling error in the last 2 midterm cycles in the last 3 weeks.
Nationally, the polls were pretty good, but red state polls were too blue and blue state polls too red. x.patrickruffini.com/polling…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Interviewed about the polls and how to read them here. Some rules:
1. Average across surveys
2. Mostly good ones
3. Expect small errors
4. Don’t report on betting market prices as independent source of data. (Better to not report on them at all)
cjr.org/analysis/what-to-do-…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
"Soaring energy prices push inflation higher"
... hard to imagine a worse headline for Trump and GOP 20 days before the midterms
Ordinary folks often get criticized for their lack of economic knowledge, but then you see today's inflation report and think, hey, maybe they're onto something.
pewresearch.org/politics/202…
