perryns retweeted
$PBR | EBITDA recurrente de USD 18.394 M en el 3Q26 (-7,8% t/t | +53,9% i.a.) 🛢️
La baja vs el 2Q se explica por el Brent en USD 97/bbl (-7,2% t/t | +40,4% i.a.) y por crudo no contabilizado: quedaron en tránsito 140 mil bbl/d de exportaciones (~4% de la producción). Valorizados al Brent del trimestre, son ~USD 1.250 M de ventas que se registrarían en el 4Q26.
Lo compensó en parte la suba de 6,4% t/t en ventas de derivados, con el diesel +14,4% t/t.
📊 Resultados:
• Ventas: USD 32.962 M (-1,9% t/t | +40,4% i.a.)
• Ganancia neta atribuible: USD 7.740 M (-25,8% t/t | +28,4% i.a.). En reales fueron R$ 39.750 M, por debajo del consenso de R$ 47.020 M.
• Ganancia neta recurrente: USD 9.316 M (-15,9% t/t | +78,0% i.a.) - Ajusta resultado sobre ventas de activos, procedimientos legales e impuestos a las exportaciones.
• EBITDA E&P: USD 12.686 M (-20,1% t/t), presionado por precios; refino saltó a USD 5.880 M (+65,1% t/t)
📊 Caja y deuda:
• Flujo operativo: USD 12.026 M | FCF: USD 6.618 M (+33,2% i.a.)
• Capex: USD 6.424 M (+21,2% t/t)
• Deuda neta: USD 57.847 M (-4,2% t/t), con 1,00x deuda neta/EBITDA (1,53x hace un año)
💰 Dividendo: R$ 15.300 M (~USD 2.700 M), el 45% del FCF según la política vigente, pero por debajo de lo que esperaba el mercado (USD 3.500–3.800 M) por acumulación de capital de trabajo y CAPEX.
🚀 Operativa:
• Producción propia: 3,512 MMboe/d (+5,3% t/t | +11,7% i.a.), tercer récord trimestral seguido.
• Diesel: récord de 769 mil bbl/d, con las refinerías al 99%.
• Lifting cost en Brasil: USD 6,12/boe, el más bajo desde el 3Q24.
🎯 Guidance 2026, revisado al alza:
• Producción: 3,3–3,4 MMboe/d (antes 3,1), y petróleo 2,7–2,8 MMbbl/d (antes 2,5).
• Flujo operativo: USD 45.000–50.000 M (antes 35.000).
• Capex: USD 24.000–25.500 M (antes 19.400). La compañía aclara que no es sobrecosto, sino aceleración: primer petróleo anticipado de la P-79 y la incorporación de P-80 y P-82 en 2026.
• En el call, Chambriard anunció que van a ampliar entre 10% y 20% la capacidad de 6 plataformas más (P-79, P-80, P-82, P-83, P-84 y P-85), con hasta +260 mil bbl/d. Ya lo hicieron en 11 unidades, que sumaron +282 mil bbl/d sin inversión extra.
💰 Valuación (USD 18,02/ADS | market cap ~USD 116.000 M):
• PER 3,9x trailing (recurrente)
• EV/EBITDA 2,9x
• P/VL 1,19x
• Dividend yield 6,5% LTM
🎯 Triggers: el reconocimiento de esos 140 mil bbl/d en el 4Q26, el Plan de Negocios 2027-2031 el 23-nov, y la rampa de Búzios con P-80/P-82 en 2027.
eleconomista.es/vivienda-inm… – at Santa Coloma de Gramenet, España
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perryns retweeted
Vonovia mit 7,7% Dividende - Aktienkurs 📉
Aktuell gerät Branchenprimus Vonovia massiv unter Druck: Wegen neuer Pläne von Rot-Grün-Rot in Berlin zur Vergesellschaftung großer Wohnungsbestände strauchelt der Kurs.
Die Aktie handelt mit gigantischem Abschlag zum Buchwert – doch die Politik macht Anlegern das Leben schwer.
Aktuell gibt es 7,7% Dividende. Wurde seit 3 Jahren kontinuierlich angehoben (ca. 2% p.a.)
Lieber Immobilien-Aktie statt Betongold kaufen?
perryns retweeted
Die schwierigen Bedingungen in der Immobilienbranche kann man an der Aktienkursentwicklung der vergangenen Jahre ablesen. Aber irgendwann ist der Pessimismus vielleicht übertrieben. Der Abschlag auf den NAV beträgt bei der LEG 65%.
Grand City Properties schreibt heute zu LEG:
„Taking advantage of current market opportunities, the Company regards the shareholding as a financial investment, which trades at FFO I yield of over 13%.”
GCP bezeichnet die Wirtschaftlichkeit dieses Investments ausdrücklich als attraktiver im Vergleich zu direkten Immobilienkäufen. Diese Erkenntnis wird sich früher oder später auch bei schwierigen Fällen wie Vonovia durchsetzen.
perryns retweeted
So is the thinking that Iran will agree on a deal two weeks before the midterms?
Oil Tumbles As Qatar, Pakistan Tout 'Compromise Proposal' To End Iran War zerohedge.com/geopolitical/t…
perryns retweeted
Offshore Q3 earnings preview is out.
The deepwater bull case looks more or less confirmed: floater utilisation at 84% in September, heading to 92% by end-2027, and leading-edge drillships fixing at $440-530k/day. But the drillers are already considerably up this year, at 0.8-1.1x gross asset value, so we are positive on the cycle and can easily see the stocks trading sideways from here.
The valuation spread is the more interesting part: 3.8x EV/EBITDA at SED against 12.7x at Borr, with Odfjell and SED screening best on visibility and yield and Tidewater, at 118% of newbuild parity, the most expensive name.
Full note, with company-by-company previews and what to watch into results, below or at nortilus.com.
#offshore #oott $BORR $RIG $VAL $GMS $GMS.L $TDW $SEA1.OL $ENH.OL $ODL.OL
perryns retweeted
EU natural gas inventories in % of full - EU at 74.47%
Germany at 61.01%, Italy at 89.67%, France at 87.59%, Netherlands at 64.48%, Austria at 68.14%, Spain at 78.23% agsi.gie.eu
perryns retweeted
Why is the overall market so fixated on $CRWV's imminent demise?
At the peak of the Dot Com bubble, $CSCO - the largest company in the world, and the $NVDA equivalent of the era - generated about 10% of its revenue from circular deals through vendor-financed startups.
When those startups lost access to capital, $CSCO's revenue growth went from +66% to -30% within a few quarters, and the stock lost 80% of its value. The same story played out across the dot com supply chain, sending the Nasdaq down 80%.
Today, $CRWV alone makes up roughly 8% of
$NVDA GPU sales. Losing that demand is enough to nuke $NVDA's growth story all by itself.
Oh, and $CRWV isn't an isolated example - every major neocloud is hemmoraghing cash and borrowing costs are going UP across the board.
If you lose the neoclouds, you lose the incremental growth driver for marginal data center capacity, and the AI capex trade goes up in smoke.
That's why we're seeing carnage across the entire AI supply chain, from $CAT and $GEV to $MU, $AVGO and more recently $NVDA.
This is what the beginning of the end of a debt-fueled, circular-financed capex bubble looks like.
perryns retweeted
Dumb da dumb dumb da.
The CoreWeave selloff shows a pressure point from climbing borrowing costs wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-r… via @WSJ
perryns retweeted
With TTF & Brent this high, $HBR.L is a steal below 300p.
BofA (360p PT): FY26e FCF 2.8B , >50% above Harbour's already-upgraded 1.8B guide & 20% above consensus.
Nov 5 trading statement should bring an FCF guide + buyback upgrade. Hard to see how this doesn't go higher.
perryns retweeted
I get it, there are nuances for tech-bros who are deep in the weeds. Everyone has an anecdote about why I’m wrong.
Take a step back and be a commodity-bro who’s seen enough supply/demand cycles. Tokens are a commodity. Currently, the token factories are out-stripping token demand. Pricing is the adjustment factor. Except token factories are mostly fixed-price businesses. They have take-or-pay. They have commitments. They will produce tokens at a loss rather than turn off.
I’m not saying that token demand is slowing. It’s still growing at astronomical rates. I’m saying that token production is now out-pacing demand. The cycle will turn when demand accelerates or token production slows. There’s like half a trillion $ of GPUs waiting to be installed. I don’t think token production slows anytime soon.
Yeah, I get it. Jevon’s and all. It’s great for AI consumers and innovators. But the guys owning token factories are gonna all go bust in the process, and that’s like $2T of capex to date. You cannot even restructure these things and crush the debt. They’re just stranded by new, and more efficient chips. They’re always going to be stranded by new chips. More efficient Models will strand the more expensive ones. It’s a race to the bottom against fixed costs. It’s the most godawful business misallocation I’ve seen in a while. Makes the Chinese look like prudent capital allocators🤣🤣
It’s like having iron rails when the new railroads run on steel. This bankruptcy cycle will be epic…
In a normal functioning ecosystem, when the price of tokens drops below the cost of production, the quantity of tokens declines to normalize with pricing. In this case, nothing in AI has any unit economics and you don’t see normalization because everyone is still going full-speed ahead with external funding. (Sort of like shale oil in 2016-2019). Meanwhile, compute prices are based on LT contracts that were signed at above market prices, and are now capital destructive. They’ll eventually catch down to token prices in free-fall.
What we’re seeing here is spot price negatively diverging from term pricing. Usually, when this happens in a cyclical industry, it’s INCREDIBLY BEARISH. Especially when there are take-or-pay contracts that make it difficult to ration supply at prices below cost. What we’re witnessing is a world where losses will accelerate, just as more supply comes online….
perryns retweeted
API Inventory Moves 10/14
Crude -11.12 million
Cushing +1.823 million
SPR actual +0
#oott #crudeoil #gasoline #distillates #API
perryns retweeted
Good capital markets day at doValue ($DOV.mi), and the brokers cut their price targets. One went from buy to hold. Short interest is now 8.5%.
All of that rests on reading the new guidance as management overpromising, which means expecting a big miss.
The other reading is that the guidance is finally a lowball. Execution depends mostly on cost actions, where this management has overdelivered before, and on operating leverage at coeo that is already showing up.
Short term I do not know. An H2 beat into a 30% free float with 8.5% short and a 3% buyback would not be a gentle rerating. Long term the price looks like a no brainer to me.
DOV.MI doValue: an antifragile business at 3x 2029 free cash flow, on a worst case plan.
It is like buying a copper miner at the bottom of the cycle, valued on trough cash flow, while nobody prices what happens when the cycle turns.
I went through every slide and every analyst question from the Capital Markets Day.
What the plan assumes:
Three more years at the bottom of the credit cycle
A legacy book that is never refilled
2026 guidance trimmed, but still sitting above the most bearish analyst
What is already working:
The cost programme is effectively reinvestment at around a 50% annual return, by taking out overstaffing
coeo, the digital collections arm, guided to around 30% EBITDA growth a year and already beating
What is excluded, on the record:
Re-tenders
Tax arrears
Any turn in the credit cycle
Greek re-performing loan sales are barely in there
And it is genuinely anticyclical. Credit concerns in Europe are picking up, which for most of your book is a problem. Here it is the demand driver. More bad loans means more work to service, so the business gets stronger exactly as credit gets worse.
Catalysts: coeo portfolio sale by year end, FY26 numbers, a possible rating upgrade, buybacks.
Full review in undervalued and undercovered, link in comments
perryns retweeted
Fresh insider buying at NexPoint Residential Trust $NXRT.
CIO Matt McGraner purchased 10,780 shares at an average price of $18.65, investing just over $201,000.
The purchase brings his reported holdings to 500,275 shares.
A six-figure buy from a senior executive is a meaningful vote of confidence and one worth keeping on the radar.
$NXRT #InsiderBuying #Stocks #Investing
perryns retweeted
REITs are down nearly 10% over the past month, and many smaller names are down 20%+. The reason is simple: rates. Higher energy costs are pushing inflation higher, forcing the Fed to hike again. But I am buying the dip.
perryns retweeted
Estado no puede cubrir el 100 % del riesgo de la hipoteca. Y esos avales no crean casas, crean compradores -que con la misma oferta- dispararían aún más los precios.
El PP propone eliminar las zonas tensionadas y plantea avales públicos de hasta el 100% para que los jóvenes puedan comprar su primera vivienda europapress.es/economia/macr…
