#innovator, #father, #digitalassets, #ecommerce, #creditunion, #doghandlinginsights, #try, #hunter, #strategist
Springfield, MO
Joined May 2009
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Paul Ebisch retweeted
The biggest wealth transfer in American history isn’t happening on Wall Street. It’s happening on U-Hauls.
Over $2 trillion in income fled high-tax blue states for low-tax red states in just 11 years.
And blue states’ solution? Raise taxes again.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Stanley Druckenmiller: “I like putting all my eggs in one basket.”
Concentration is the most underrated investment advice.
My portfolio had a great month because I was heavily concentrated on $NBIS, $AMD and $AMZN.
When you concentrate on exceptional companies bought at discount, you see the downside as just volatility, and upside as inevitable.
Don’t be afraid of concentrating on your best ideas.
As Buffett once said, “nobody gets rich on their 20th best idea.”
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Investors are pouring money into US funds at a record pace:
US-listed ETFs have pulled in +$380 billion so far in 2026, on track for the best year on record.
This marks a +80% increase compared to the first two months of 2025.
As a result, average daily ETF inflows are up +52% YoY, to a record +$9 billion per session.
This is also up +310% since 2023 and marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase.
Since 2019, average daily ETF inflows have surged +700%.
The US ETF industry is experiencing a historic acceleration in investor demand.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Commerce between China and Iran is declining:
China's exports to Iran fell to $6.93 billion in 2025, the lowest in at least 11 years.
This is down -63% from the ~$18.65 billion peak in 2017.
At the same time, China's imports from Iran are down to $3.04 billion, leaving China's trade surplus at $3.89 billion, the lowest since 2022.
Furthermore, despite absorbing ~33% of Iranian trade, Iran represents less than 1% of China's total commerce.
Furthermore, Iranian crude makes up ~13% of China's seaborne oil intake, even though China purchases ~90% of total Iranian oil exports.
Meanwhile, in 2021, China signed a 25-year, $400 billion strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, but only $2-3 billion has been confirmed since then.
China’s economic exposure to Iran is far more limited than it seems.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
The State of California has been run top to bottom by one party since 2011.
Here are their results:
1) highest state income tax
2) highest rate of poverty
3) highest rate of unemployment
4) highest rate of homelessness
5) highest energy costs
Hard to explain this away.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
We now have:
1. US President with a 100,000 price target on the Dow
2. New Fed Chair who is "required" to cut interest rates
3. $2,000 stimulus checks back in discussion
4. US government buying $200 billion in mortgage bonds
5. New $1.2 trillion funding bill signed into effect
6. Trump saying USD is "doing great" after -10% drop
Own assets or be left behind.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Employment at small US businesses is contracting at an alarming pace:
Small US firms employing 20-49 people shed -30,000 jobs in January, the 5th consecutive monthly decline.
These firms have seen employment contract in 14 out of the last 17 months.
Over this period, payrolls have declined -296,000, to 22.5 million, the lowest since August 2022.
This is also the biggest contraction since the 2020 pandemic.
Small businesses are cutting jobs as if there is a recession.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
“The art of investment is the discipline of inaction in the absence of a good opportunity, but aggressive action when one is identified.” - Li Lu
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Abigail Shrier: "The number one symptom of depression is rumination, pathologically obsessing over your pain. Getting out of your house and accomplishing anything is good for you, sitting around, talking and thinking about your problems is a bad habit."
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Marc Andreessen explains future belongs to generalist in the AI era.🎯
Founders will need skills across 6–8 fields. Deep expertise still matters, but broad knowledge plus AI tools will be more valuable in most areas.
Top CEOs already operate this way
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Chinese retail investor activity is exploding:
The number of new individual investor accounts in China jumped +88% MoM in January, to 4.9 million, the highest since October 2024.
For perspective, the October 2024 peak of 6.8 million accounts was the largest in 9 years and the 2025 average was 2.3 million.
The number of new margin trading accounts surged +30% MoM to ~190,000.
All while the daily stock market turnover in China surpassed $520 billion, an all-time high.
Retail participation in Chinese markets is skyrocketing.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
The balance of power is changing
🌍 Top 10 contributors to global real GDP growth (2026)
1．🇨🇳 China — 26.6%
2．🇮🇳 India — 17.0%
3．🇺🇸 United States — 9.9%
4．🇮🇩 Indonesia — 3.8%
5．🇹🇷 Türkiye — 2.2%
6．🇳🇬 Nigeria — 1.5%
7．🇧🇷 Brazil — 1.5%
8．🇻🇳 Vietnam — 1.6%
9．🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — 1.7%
10．🇩🇪 Germany — 0.9%
📌 China + India alone = 43.6% of global growth
📌 Asia-Pacific accounts for ~50% of total growth
Source: IMF
Paul Ebisch retweeted
Marc Andreessen:
"The job is not actually the atomic unit of what happens in the workplace. The atomic unit of what happens in the workplace is the task."
"A job is a bundle of tasks."
“Everybody wants to talk about job loss, but really what you want to look at is task loss.”
"As the tasks change enough, then that’s when the jobs change."
"Ten years from now, is your job title coder, or coder-designer-product manager, or is it just, ‘I build products,’ or is it just, ‘I tell the AI how to build products.’ Whatever that job is called, it’s going to be incredibly important, because the people doing that job are going to be orchestrating the AI."
@pmarca on Lenny's Podcast with @lennysan
Paul Ebisch retweeted
$TAL Q3 Earnings Beat
Revenue: $770M (+27% YoY)
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25 vs ~$0.15 est
Gross margin: 56.1% (up 340bps)
Operating income: +$93M vs LOSS of $17M last year
Paul Ebisch retweeted
This chart shows that the top 1% of California taxpayers are responsible for more than 33% of all tax dollars.
The top 0.1% of California taxpayers payers (~17,500 people) are responsible for more than 16% of all tax revenues.
The point is that only a few people, in a state of 40M people, pay a huge portion of the state’s revenues. As one of them, I can tell you categorically that we’ve had enough. We will all move if this tax insanity doesn’t stop and pockets are organizing already to do so en masse.
The middle class will then be left alone to pay for all the waste of the politicians you’ve elected because they have no ability to stop.
Paul Ebisch retweeted
US housing market dynamics are changing:
Mortgages with rates of 6%+ are up to 21.2% of all loans, the highest since 2015, per Reventure.
This percentage has almost TRIPLED since 2022.
Over the same period, sub-3% rate mortgages have declined -4.4 percentage points to 20.2%, the lowest since 2021.
As a result, there are now more mortgage holders with rates of 6%+ than sub-3%.
As existing homeowners have increasingly higher mortgage rates, closer to the current 30-year average of 6.15%, more homeowners are willing to sell their homes.
This could revive historically depressed home turnover, which sits near 30-year lows.
The mortgage lock-in effect may finally be starting to ease.
