Armchair economist and pundit. I post theses + ideas with variable confidence. I post to help + learn from others. Primary account @kurttheobald.
USA
Joined August 2025
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$TAL Q3 Earnings Beat
Revenue: $770M (+27% YoY)
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25 vs ~$0.15 est
Gross margin: 56.1% (up 340bps)
Operating income: +$93M vs LOSS of $17M last year
$TAL Important detail that’s easy to miss: Deferred revenue up 73% to $1.16B. Indicates future strength growing.
$3.6B cash on ~$7B market cap puts enterprise value at ~$3.4B against a 30% grower printing 12% operating margins.
INVESTMENT THESIS: PARTY’S OVER.
I’m detained by other foci right now, but I have closed 95% of my “bull” positions over the past 10 trading sessions to make space for shorts. Started to accrue a short position on Wednesday of last week. Short CVNA, QQQ, BTC, SOXL, and others. Provided up-trends are not reacquired, I will be adding to my short on bounces. I expect a 20+% retracement in the Nasdaq before federal and Fed stimuli are able to steady the decline.
Let me tell you the future. Not specific dates, but a repeating cycle.
Here’s the cycle (and then I’ll break it down in detail):
1. Irrational Exuberance
2. Crisis
3. Institutional “Rescue”
4. Recovery
5. Releveraging
6. More Irrational Exuberance
(1/17)
College debt: First, is it a bubble? Absolutely. Tons of leveraged funding going in + very little value coming out = bubble. BUT it’s a government-created bubble, so the future is that the government will bail them all out, likely in exchange for adopting the eventual new monetary system. So, this is not the source of the coming crisis. The can will be locked down the road for a very long time and likely eventually buried.
(4/17)
