Senior EM economist 🇬🇧
London, England
Joined September 2017
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Liam Peach retweeted
RT @EuromoneyConf: @Peach_Liam of @CapEconEmerging speaking on #inflation & #green #transition at @EuroMoney #CEE #Forum 2024 in #Vienna #Austria #emCEEForum
Big decision by the CBRT today. Given the scale of the inflation problem, a 500bp hike to 20% is probably necessary, but I fear another underwhelming hike. The slow and steady tightening is pushing the limits on what policymakers can get away with. 1/
But the room for error is now incredibly small. The impression I’m building is that Erdogan still has the CBRT in a straight jacket. Even if rates are raised to 30%, there are serious doubts about whether rates will be kept high for long enough to address Turkey's imbalances. 3/
Striking chart in Poland on private sector credit to GDP in the NBP's latest fin stability report. This is one of the largest credit contractions in EMs atm. Likely due to higher int rates, low housing demand, tighter credit availability and legal risks around FX loan settlement.
My column in the FT today on the policy adjustment that Turkey's economy now needs to make. This starts with a large #lira depreciation. Today's 6% fall vs $ is a positive step and further weakness lies in store. The next step needs to involve a sharp rise in interest rates.
Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira on.ft.com/3WVVPHq | opinion
Liam Peach retweeted
@peach_liam from @CapEconEmerging speaking about Energy security: the costs of keeping the lights on at the #emCEEForum
Liam Peach retweeted
So, why is #Russia slashing interest rates when inflation is running at 17% and in an environment where many other global central banks are raising rates?
@peach_liam has all the answers: marketplace.org/shows/market…
#Russia's central bank slashes interest rates by 1.5pp to 9.5% -- a more aggressive cut than expected, noting "the external environment for the Russian economy remains challenging & significantly constrains economic activity." No *direct* reference to Russia's Ukraine invasion.
Liam Peach retweeted
Where are the Central Bank of Russia reserves kept? Well, a decent chunk are held as deposits with central banks, the BIS, or the IMF. Indeed, the deposit share of reserves increased sharply in 2018 when they were forced to sell US Treasuries...
@M_C_Klein
Liam Peach retweeted
Polski sektor przemysłowy ma za sobą okres spektakularnego rozwoju. Przed sobą zresztą też - twierdzi @peach_liam z @CapEconEurope w bardzo dobrej analizie tego fenomenu. Produkcja w PL jest powyżej poziomu, na którym byłaby, gdyby pozostała na przedpandemicznej ścieżce wzrostu.
Liam Peach retweeted
Roses are red
Violets are blue
We’ll keep financing conditions favourable
‘Til the crisis is through
#ECBmyvalentine #ValentinesDay
Liam Peach retweeted
"Obecny poziom stóp procentowych jest właściwy i najlepiej odpowiada obecnej sytuacji. Jednak w pierwszym kwartale następnego roku możliwe jest dalsze obniżenie stóp. Prowadzimy w NBP odpowiednie analizy możliwych okoliczności i potencjalnych skutków takiego obniżenia”.
Liam Peach retweeted
Devastating news from Minsk: the Belarusian foreign ministry has stripped dozens of locals journalists working for foreign media of their press accreditation, affecting the entire bureaus of Reuters, AP, AFP, Deutsche Welle. 1/2
Liam Peach retweeted
“The name of the company, Eastman Kodak Co. It is a cutting edge high-tech generic drug producer out of the Midwest awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of COVID vaccines that have both huge military and civilian applications now.”
Liam Peach retweeted
The world we live in:
Depressed nominal yields as inflation expectation moves higher.
Falling real yields are a big reason for the surge in gold prices.
Then add:
-Unlimited QE
-Unlimited deficits
-Debt on top more debt
Hard to not be long gold, silver & miners these days.
