Chief Economist, Vanda Macro (formerly Exante); ex. IMF. London based. Personal views, @ExanteData. Exante sub-stack: https://xitter.cf/t.co/IJIjSGzIzZ

London, England
Joined July 2015
Chris Marsh retweeted
I will comment on the French news only from a market perspective. It is rare that markets respond to news of this kind, as it is generally viewed as temporary and not enough to ultimately move the economy BUT: - This could move politics, and impact voting into the crucial elections in 2017 (further away from the center). - These riots are so severe that there may be an impact via a/ lower tourism, b/ lower business/consumer confidence - OAT spreads widened to 140bp in Sep (on levered selling), but we have seen some consolidation in Oct (as real money is watching, but have not reduced yet). The images from this weekend, will not make real money more comfortable.
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Chris Marsh retweeted
Replying to @jeuasommenulle
The debate we have w clients is whether the ecb is so worried about contagion that they will provide support almost ex ante to the real market fall out That debate is not settled My good colleague @GeneralTheorist has views however :-)
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Thank you, Florin, for sharing this beautiful paper. What I will remember most about Perry, though, is that he eventually took a different road and the courage it took to do so. He had a Harvard PhD and a JPE paper. Everything was there for a conventional career in macroeconomics. Instead, he turned away from mathematical economics and read Bagehot, Hawtrey, Allyn Young, Hicks and Minsky, forgotten traditions of monetary thought that he brought back to life as what he called the money view. He later said he almost did not survive it. Most of his papers were rejected, and Barnard told him his record was not strong enough for tenure. He eventually got it for a book, The Money Interest and the Public Interest, in which he went looking for what he called his intellectual ancestors. Perry sometimes called himself, too modestly, a historian of economic thought. As Florin says, he remained to me an elegant and deep theorist even when not using mathematics, while now working in a direction orthogonal to most of the profession. I genuinely believe he had far more impact this way, and did more for our understanding of money, than he ever could have on the conventional path. He also made a choice that would be unusual today, spending much of his time building his synthesis in his money and banking course at Barnard, with his students. The course became a MOOC with close to 200,000 enrollments, and an eye-opener for many. I was one of them. I signed up while interning at the ECB as a PhD student, without expecting much. I was amazed by how much I learned. It was different from everything I had been taught, and complementary to it. I remember trying to follow the balance sheets of the shadow banking system he drew on the pixelated board, and the eureka moments when he had us look past the institutional details to the same economics of banking and central banking across countries and centuries. I remember him deciphering the euro crisis live. That course, and the reading that followed, shaped the monetary economist I became. Writing on repo, FX swaps and stablecoins, I have tried to understand shadow banking the way he taught us, as an ecosystem of interlocking balance sheets where heterogeneous institutions together transform liquidity exactly as a bank would. Almost every paper I have written starts with the balance sheets of the model. As always happens when someone you have learned so much from passes, I wish I had interacted with him more, and had been more explicit about what my work owes him. Perry found his intellectual ancestors in forgotten books. He is now one of mine, and I will do my best to carry the money view forward.
RIP Perry Mehrling. An incredibly elegant and deep theorist, especially for all things "money". This 1993 note is a gem (on the suboptimality of the Friendman rule in Bewley models due to redistributive effects). (HT @a_auclert who first pointed me to this paper 10+ years ago!)
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Today's 10-year Treasury auction closes at 1 PM ET. That's exactly when we go live. Deficits, Yields and the Fed. Who Is Really in Charge? 5 PM UTC @djheakin @pboockvar @GeneralTheorist @PKurzin Hosted by @ElianJacobs22 Set a reminder 👇 xitter.cf/i/spaces/1lJQRWLaaQkxE
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Will be live on this X Space (first time on such a forum). Join is at 6pm London (1pm EST.)
Deficits, Yields and the Fed. Who Is Really in Charge? Join us on Wednesday, October 7 at 5 PM UTC for a live discussion featuring: @djheakin @pboockvar @GeneralTheorist @PKurzin Hosted by @ElianJacobs22 Set a reminder and bring your questions 👇 xitter.cf/i/spaces/1lJQRWLaaQkxE
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Chris Marsh retweeted
The big surplus countries are still accumulating foreign assets through state investment vehicles and state banks (but not through their formal reserves). A new blog with @EtraAlex of Vanda/ Exante 1/ cfr.org/articles/de-reservif…
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Chris Marsh retweeted
youtube.com/watch?v=Dkwb6n4f… I did a long-form interview with the very popular The Compound and Friends podcast on Friday. The show starts with the rationale for merging @ExanteData with @vandaresearch and how the combined firm will seek to take macro analytics to the next level. The show has the (unusual) cold open start the first few minutes, and the main segment kicks at the 7 min, talking about the upcoming launch of Vanda analytics and the overall research philosophy. In terms of market topics, the focus was on hyper-scalers influence on the bond market, the influence of debt on the dollar and opportunities around Korea, gold and the transition from AI inflation to deflation. Thanks to @Downtown for the invite...
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Chris Marsh retweeted
In 2026, how would US markets react to an announcement of further US fiscal stimulus (say notable stimulus checks)?
12%yields up, dollar up
82%yields up, dollar down
5%yields down, dollar up
2%yields down, dollar down
184 votes • Final results
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"While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models" is a sentence with staggering consequences
We congratulate Levent Alpöge and Tristan Buckmaster on their remarkable mathematical work. We (the researchers and the agents) did not see any of their work through any means until they released it publicly — in particular, no specific user data was accessed in order to solve this problem. While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models. However, our proofs differ significantly and even the precise results proved are different in the Euler case (forced vs. unforced).
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Chris Marsh retweeted
Walk and talk on way to @CNBCFastMoney
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Three months ago PIEE's Maurice Obstfeld wrote yet another piece arguing that the cause of the US trade deficit is (what else?) not enough fiscal austerity. He argues that if the US were to reduce its fiscal deficit, it would cause a rise in US saving, and so less American borrowing from foreigners and a corresponding drop in the US trade deficits. Like many American economists Obstfeld does not seem to believe that foreigners have agency. He thinks that foreigners invest in the US mainly to accommodate the needs of Americans, and not to accommodate their own needs – in this case to acquire assets to balance their persistent trade surpluses. So if the US were to reduce its fiscal deficit, as Obstfeld (and so many others) insist, would that really cause foreigners to stop reconciling their trade surpluses with the purchase of US assets? Almost certainly not, unless fiscal austerity succeeds in driving a sharp-enough economic contraction and raising US unemployment. Even then, it might just shift foreign purchases out of American stocks and into US bonds, leaving the US worse off economically and the trade deficit as big as ever. Countries that run trade surpluses, after all, must acquire foreign assets to balance them, and it is unlikely that a smaller US fiscal deficit will cause them to change their minds about the safety of US assets. For those who are interested, Michael McNair responded at the time with a piece explaining the various confusions in the Obstfeld piece. It was published nearly three months ago, and is a little technical, but I am reposting it because this is one of those very important topics in which an ideological commitment to austerity should not be allowed to overrule our understanding of global trade and capital flows. medium.com/@mcnai002/a-surpl…
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Chris Marsh retweeted
1/ I have the formal pleasure of announcing the publication of the book “The Whip of Global Finance: International Monetary and Financial Subordination and (Under) development”. The link: cambridge.org/core/elements/…
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Chris Marsh retweeted
I will accept Nigel Farage’s request to be appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead. It is a farce and a desperate distraction, and the people of Clacton deserve better. But if he wants to spend the summer arguing with a bin, I won't stop him.
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Chris Marsh retweeted
Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and Greens: I demand you stand down in Clacton. I will be a unity candidate and pledge to build at least one affordable house. Nigel Farage says he wants The People versus the Establishment. So be it. Leave him to me.
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Chris Marsh retweeted
Come Together.
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Lots here that I sympathise with. Macro-politics in the UK is all about fetishising what the market is saying.
There are smart people™ who seem to believe that UK fiscal policy is too loose, that Burnham's programme is dangerously left wing (?) and that the bond market reaction is warranted. No discussion of absurd and self-defeating fiscal rules and a central bank shirking its duties.
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Chris Marsh retweeted
Time to celebrate.. @web_begole and I founded @marketreaderinc back in 2022 with the goal of creating software that can explain market movements in real-time, on scale. Markets are complex, and building the engine behind MarketReader was not simple. But we did it, and the MarketReader solution remains (even if many AI companies are trying to catch up) the leading source of automated explanations of price actions for thousands of stocks and macro instruments. Today, we are celebrating that MarketReader is about to embark on its next chapter, with a key strategic partner...
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Very good Michael McNair piece on the various confusions in Maurice Obstfeld's latest piece on global imbalances. Investors, business managers, workers, policymakers and even the IMF (albeit kicking and struggling) increasingly understand the adverse impacts of large, persistent trade imbalances driven by wage-and demand-suppressing policies, even if it will still be many years before mainstream economists do. The latter seem ideologically averse to any explanation of global imbalances that don't conclude with calls for more fiscal and wage discipline in the US. medium.com/@mcnai002/a-surpl…
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Happy weekend everybody
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Chris Marsh retweeted
Happy 96th birthday to Dr. Israel Kirzner! To celebrate his remarkable legacy, it’s worth revisiting one of his memorable appearances with us. In 2016, Research & Programs hosted the Advanced Austrian Seminar, where Professor Kirzner delivered a keynote lecture on the market process and the central role of subjectivism in the development of Austrian economics. youtu.be/GvE4zEfrv0k?si=iQnR…
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