Aficionado a la meteorología🌧️ y al baloncesto🏀
Santiago de Compostela
Joined December 2015
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Galicia vivió ayer el PRIMER temporal decente del otoño 2026. Un 12 de noviembre. Este año ha llegado bastante tarde pero es lo que hay. Acumulados muy altos de más de 40-50 mm en el interior de Pontevedra, suroeste de A Coruña y sur de Ourense 🌧️☔👍. Que así siga.
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Pablo Estévez retweeted
Predicción para el resto de la semana:
Esta tarde y mañana viernes:
➡️Precipitaciones persistentes en Galicia, con acumulaciones importantes; en el resto del noroeste peninsular se esperan con menor acumulación y persistencia.
➡️Temporal marítimo en el Mediterráneo.
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Tremenda salida del modelo americano!!! Hasta 400 litros en el oeste de Galicia @manucesar98 @lobo_animado @MeteoBrais1
Seguirán las lluvias en buena parte de España la próxima semana (16 al 22) alimentadas de un nuevo río atmósferico. Esta vez parece que más concentrado en el noroeste peninsular, podríamos tener varios frentes activos afectando a Galicia y norte de Portugal. Puro otoño ☔🍂.
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Madre mía... 🫠 menudo bicho. Allá donde toque lo gordo, además de lluvias muy fuertes, vientos puntualmente de carácter huracanado. Situación peligrosa.
La edad de oro del periodismo
Alfonso Arús alucina con el #viral de una avioneta de la policía que dibuja un pene en el mapa.🤯
Más información⬇
atres.red/l6brw3
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Los modelos siguen mostrando acumulados muy altos en el noroeste de la península, ojo a la semana del 16 al 22. Se mantiene la llegada de varios frentes activos parece. ☔🌧️. Más de 300-400 litros en Galicia y sistema central.
Pablo Estévez retweeted
☔️ La borrasca Bruna dejará precipitaciones abundantes en zonas del oeste peninsular y Canarias.
Acumulaciones previstas👉
Más de 200 l/m² en puntos del sistema Central y oeste y sur de Galicia.
Más de 100 l/m² en puntos del sur de las islas canarias más montañosas.
Pablo Estévez retweeted
🌂 Outubro de 2026 en Galicia foi moi seco, cunha porcentaxe de precipitación do 22 % con respecto ao valor normal do mes; foi o 5º mes de outubro máis seco da serie histórica desde 1961. O antecedente máis próximo corresponde a outubro de 2017, cun 20 % da choiva normal.
Pablo Estévez retweeted
Vigo, la ciudad más lluviosa de España, está a 22 días de quedarse sin agua potable "de calidad": "Nos enfrentamos, sin ninguna duda, a la peor sequía de nuestra historia" elmundo.es/papel/2026/11/03/…
Galegos, ide aforrando auga que esto non pinta ben... Para algo que ven e non pillamos case nada... E logo volverá o anticiclon seguro..
Pablo Estévez retweeted
🚨#Update: SW #Europe & #IberianPeninsula 🇵🇹🇪🇸
A striking agreement has emerged between the numerical weather model forecasts for early November and my statistical analog ensemble forecast, issued weeks ago using 152 historical analog months selected to approximate November's atmospheric evolution .
The two upper maps show the 300 hPa and 850 hPa zonal winds (westerlies) from my statistical analog ensemble for the 1-12 November cadence. The two lower maps show today's CFS model updates, kindly shared by my friend CJ @JCMCJCMCJCMC from Portugal 🇵🇹.
Both approaches indicate enhanced atmospheric river activity over Spain and southwestern Europe as shown in the positive Zonal wind patterns , potentially bringing increased rainfall to the Iberian Peninsula and parts of central and NE Europe in the coming 12 days hopefully.
The enhanced westerly flow (highlighted in orange in the upper maps) may also transport additional moisture across Central Europe towards northeastern Europe. Where this moisture encounters upper-level cold-air systems, it could contribute to locally intense rainfall episodes.
Additional water runoff forecasts are included in the comments, with France 🇫🇷 and Germany 🇩🇪 among the main areas of concern during the November-December period.
Many thanks to @JCMCJCMCJCMC for sharing the latest model updates, and to @pyreweather for its integrated and accurate map reconstructions using NOAA CORe data -which lines up perfectly with model runs .
Kindly🙏 share ♻️ the early warnings, Early warnings save lives & Property ( 🧬🫎🚗)
Mr. M. @Statisticizer
🌦️🌐🚨 November 1–12 Synoptic Outlook | Mediterranean Region.
🗺️ Attached are my preliminary synoptic outlook maps for the first 12 days of November, highlighting expected troughing patterns, precipitation potential, cloud-cover distribution (new maps 🆕), and estimated snowfall probabilities (new maps 🆕❄️) across the Mediterranean region.
🌧️ 🇪🇸 Iberia & 🇫🇷 France | Potential Atlantic Influence
A low-pressure system over the Bay of Biscay may develop during the first 10 days of November, potentially affecting the Iberian Peninsula and parts of southwestern Europe. This configuration could facilitate a colder-air intrusion into the region.
🌧️ Precipitation anomalies may turn notably positive across Iberia, particularly over inland and southeastern parts of the peninsula, with elevated rainfall potential also extending into parts of France. The magnitude and distribution of precipitation will depend on the eventual positioning and evolution of the low-pressure system.
🌬️ Areas where high- and low-pressure systems interact may experience enhanced rainfall potential, provided the necessary atmospheric ingredients for lifting, moisture convergence, and cloud development are present. This may include parts of North African territory.
❄️🎿 Iberia | Estimated Snowfall Probabilities
The snowfall-risk analysis indicates potential snowfall over the high peaks of the southern and eastern mountain ranges of the Iberian Peninsula. However, these probabilities do not guarantee substantial snowfall or significant snow accumulation. The map represents the likelihood of snowfall rather than the expected amount or depth of snow.
☀️🌍 North Africa & Central Mediterranean | Potential Stability
An anticyclonic influence may prevail or develop over parts of North Africa and the central Mediterranean, favoring atmospheric subsidence, more stable conditions, and reduced precipitation potential in the affected areas.
🔭📅 Second Half of November | Preliminary Outlook
Looking further ahead, Iberia may experience increased atmospheric subsidence and a transition toward more stable conditions during the second half of November. Nevertheless, periods of residual or renewed atmospheric instability cannot yet be ruled out.
⚠️ Forecast Disclaimer: This is a preliminary, long-range probabilistic synoptic outlook, not a deterministic forecast. The projected atmospheric patterns, precipitation distribution, and snowfall probabilities remain subject to refinement as the forecast period approaches and additional analyses become available.
🛰️ Weather maps courtesy of @PyreWeather: app.pyreweather.org/.
Climatic statistical analog modelling, Weather Forecasting and downscaling by Mr. M @Statisticizer - hodhodata.com .
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#WeatherOutlook #MediterraneanWeather #SynopticAnalysis #NovemberForecast #Iberia #NorthAfrica #SnowfallPotential #WeatherForecasting
