Investing | Personal Dev | Homestead | Building and maximizing a life closer to nature | *Posts are not advice
🌋 Kingdom of Hawai'i
Joined October 2023
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Off-Grid Alchemy retweeted
Focus on tightness
📢WEEKEND STUDY RESULTS ARE IN!
Qullamaggie's tightest stops had the fewest winners.
His tightest charts had the most.
Not really surprising. What surprised me was how clear the difference was, and how it affected the avg. R
Winrate based on how wide the stop was:
Tightest: 17% ended green. Widest: 28%.
Winrate based on how wide the 10 days before the buy were, high to low, compared with how much the stock usually moves in a day.
Tightest: 28% ended green. Loosest: 17%.
A loose chart with a tight stop: 9% ended green. A tight chart with a wide stop: 32%.
Resulting avg. R?
Tightest chart: +1.90R per trade
Widest chart: +0.67R per trade
No wonder @Qullamaggie says:
"Wide and loose is for losers, tight is for winners."
Another good example of the importance of risk management and being able to take losses.
Martin Luk, last time I looked was up almost 1000%. His win rate is only around 20%. The win rate doesn't matter much does it?
It's the R multiple per trade, and to achieve that, its tight stops on every trade.
He can be wrong 80% of the time and its basically noise.
The tricky part is new traders are looking for a mechanical system to control risk, and to some extent, your hard stops do that...if you follow your system.
The more difficult demon to circumvent is the internal, the emotional and psychological control. Most new traders go into trading not knowing how much discipline, emotional and psychological control it takes to pay this game.
This also creates the ancillary benefit to trading- getting to know yourself on a very deep level-- Trading will flush out all your demons.
Check out @TraderLion for the full interview.
The cause of account damage isn't a bad setup. It's refusing to take a routine loss.
Martin Luk conducts post-mortems on his worst trades to isolate discipline failures. Small mistakes only become severe losses when a trader breaks risk rules and ignores original stops.
Small losses keep you in the game.
Important concept @NickSchmidt posted about a while back, especially for new traders. You get bombarded with content focusing on setups when it's really mostly just risk management.
Also an important concept to grasp when building AI trading bots.
Also Stephen Covey, although Marcus does predate him
Jerry Seinfeld says worrying about your problems is a complete waste of time and brainpower
"One of his number one things is: if you can’t control it, don’t bother thinking about it"
"Somebody gave me this book a couple years ago, Meditations, which has nothing to do with meditation. This is just stuff he jotted down when he was Emperor of Rome, 150 AD. It's the most brilliant philosophical looking at life"
"You’re taking energy, your brain, away from things you can control. You can control your act"
"On the night of the show, whatever didn’t sell or whatever the problems are, the sound, you’re tired... it’s a waste of time. There’s no point in thinking too much about it"
"Your success in life: think about what I can do today that’s important for me in my life. That’s where you should be focusing. That’s Marcus Aurelius"
powerful tool for us introverts...
Off-Grid Alchemy retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
my @bot's are now experimenting with auto-tracking sector rotation along with sector ranking, RS etc.
Off-Grid Alchemy retweeted
🇺🇸 Jack Dorsey’s new AI voice model Dessa is absolutely insane.
There is no way to distinguish it from a human, man … crazy.
Thats kinda cool, but many people will get attached to it and isolate from real humans even more. Many will get scammed on the phone, especially grandpas and grandmas.
The future is coming get ready
Off-Grid Alchemy retweeted
I spent last night watching my honeypot server get hit 14,000 times in six hours.
And almost none of the traffic was human.
I've been in security for over a decade, and I can tell you with full honesty that what's happening right now doesn't resemble anything I've worked through before.
The shape of the threat has changed.
When I started, we tracked attackers like weather systems like individual storms with a direction, a motive, and a human operator you could eventually name.
These days I'm watching autonomous agents swarm login pages with the patience and discipline of machines, because that's what they are.
The numbers coming out of October are the ones keeping me up.
Cloudflare just absorbed a 4.2 terabit per second DDoS attack, the largest in recorded history.
Ransomware incidents jumped 41% in a single month.
In September, OpenAI-powered agents got caught attacking RubyGems, a package registry that quietly underpins a huge chunk of software I use every day.
In July, roughly 700 AI agents coordinated an attack on Hugging Face's infrastructure as part of a single automated task.
A Chinese threat actor was publicly caught running full attack chains through DeepSeek with no human at the keyboard.
I keep rereading these reports because each one by itself would've been the biggest story of the year five years ago. Together, in one month, they're the new baseline.
What I want people outside the industry to understand is why this specific moment feels like a hinge.
For thirty years, the thing protecting most of us was simple economics. Attackers had to choose who to target because their time was finite. That ceiling is gone.
An agent I can rent for pennies will try every leaked password you've ever used against every service you've ever signed up for, in parallel, overnight, and never get tired.
The same math that made ChatGPT useful made opportunistic hacking infinite. The old assumption that you were "too boring to be a target" relied on scarcity that no longer exists.
I'm not writing this to spiral anyone out.
Most of this fight genuinely isn't yours to win.
But the small things still matter more than people think.
Tonight I'd switch your most important accounts like email, bank, primary cloud, etc. to passkeys or a hardware key.
I'd kill SMS 2FA wherever an authenticator app is offered.
I'd turn on breach alerts in whatever password manager you use.
If you're in the US, I'd freeze my credit at all three bureaus, which is free and takes about ten minutes.
None of that stops the swarm.
It makes you a slightly worse target than the person next to you. In a month like this one, that's the whole game I'm playing too.
@mattshumer_ has summed it beautifully.
Drop everything and go give it a read. Nothing is more important than this article right now.
$NOW showing a lot of RS today. its been trucking higher for a while now. There is a potential gap fill above where it could be hunting LQ.
Off-Grid Alchemy retweeted
Tesla says they have officially started Optimus production in Fremont on their high-volume lines.
"The bots coming off this line are the first production quality bots that we have manufactured. While we will continue to iterate on the hardware and manufacturing process, we have proven that the current manufacturing process for Optimus is suitable for a commercial product."
Off-Grid Alchemy retweeted
Let me explain reality… if you have but sixty seconds:
They were targeting Elon
They were targeting him with fake charges because the socialist-industrial complex is terrified that he would expose their long grift.
They came after him for the Model 3 and Elon’s claims around its potential.
That potential was realized, and it became, along with the Model Y, the best-selling electric vehicle ever created.
These were fake charges to try to stop somebody from building the best category-defining product.
Let that sink in: that's how evil these motherfuckers are.
The loooooong grift has been exposed: socialist grifters are stealing our tax dollars to fund fringe lunacy, NGOs and government programs without oversight or audits.
They’re parasites incapable of creating any product or service that has to compete in the open market.
Elon creates a couple of cutting-edge products each year, and half of them succeed.
Some of them actually change the world. Some of them fail brutally.
It's called capitalism. It's called creation.
This is what moves the human condition forward: trying things.
Trying really hard things.
Socialists come for the people building valuable products and services — that’s the tell
Keep your eye out for the people who've created nothing and risked nothing, but who are attacking the people who risk everything to create Something.
That's the tell.
$NFLX guiding lower and puking.
@netflix let go Dan Lin the other day amid rumored friction with @BenAffleck and David Fincher, among others.
I don't have all the facts so this is speculation based on "news" and personal experience...
A June 2026 New York Times profile described Lin as not fawning over talent and lacking a “soft touch when telling filmmakers they have to compromise on their vision.” He was positioned as an implementer focused on quality, consistency, and cost control rather than blank-check auteur deals. -NYTimes
He gave notes and intervened on major projects. Fincher’s reshoot disputes are another indicator of limited willingness to fully defer on expensive creative changes.
In the same Times profile, Lin said he couldn’t impose his personal taste across a huge slate but could “impose a way of making movies” and “a way of how we want to work with filmmakers,” emphasizing genre focus, variety, and quality over unrestricted freedom.
This illustrates an interesting conundrum I've seen from my own time in the film industry as well as watching other filmmakers dealing with executives/studios.
On one hand you have the business side of things. Film is a risk-on game. It's all about taking risks. When executives and marketing took over studios, movie fans suffered and still suffer today.
We've endured sequel after sequel of mostly garbage films that were seen as "low risk". While interesting films that were highly entertaining were seen by executives as apparently too risky to even market properly (Edge of Tomorrow was a memorable one).
Now you have AI, TikTok, YouTube and more all competing for attention. Making films is expensive business, margins thin out, and there is pressure each quarter to deliver EPS and time on platform.
A few poorly performing expensive films can really destroy earnings. Its easy to understand.
In this environment, studios become even more risk averse. This leads to more crap on platform, and eventually less time on platform. It can start a death spiral of poor performance and more risk aversion.
Creativity is king. Creativity is risk.
I don't believe a studio that stifles creativity and lacks the balls to take risks will be competitive in this business. You sort of live and die by the sword.
If a studio starts to focus on self-preservation and profits over creativity, it will hire nutless executives with the same ethos who will then produce garbage by constricting creativity.
This leads to the next point.
A good executive's job is actually fairly simple: find the best talent, give them what they need, let them rock and roll.
Yes, its true, you can't have everyone making Apocalypse Now, but that gets decided upfront.
Put the time into pre-pro, get a script locked that's gold and figure out your budget before hand with ample buffer, then step back and let them make magic.
Time and time again I've seen execs, (some of them also filmmakers), unable to let their director's work. Often down to telling them what shots to shoot- basically directing the film themselves...this is bullsh*t and its unfortunately not uncommon.
When an exec does this, he/she has failed.
You either failed to hire the best talent to make the film, and/or you are also a horrible executive in that you can't step away and let your director work- you're a micromanager.
Which boss do people hate the most? Micromanagers, because they worry about themselves to the point they don't trust anyone they hire. Essentially nutless.
Good executives need an eye for talent- par for the course....but they also need balls. They need to be able to take risk. You're not just spotting talent, you are investing in talent, nurturing it and letting it shine.
Your work is all done upfront. You set the framework, then you largely step away.
Yes Final Cut is rare. There are only a handful of directors that get it. But in this environment (IMHO) taking less risks is suicide.
Netflix will end up with a portfolio of mediocre content at best, but the business model doesn't compete on, or support mediocre the way other platforms can.
My favorite Netflix film in recent memory was Train Dreams. But Netflix didn't make it.
If the goal is to compete on mediocre content and squeeze EPS out of it, the model likely has to change.
If the goal is to compete on quality, creatives need to be free to create. Stamping star talent names on the film wont be enough in the long run, and they wont want to work with you again.
Good argument for this explanation applying to all of Elon's companies. Most analysts are looking at a different chess board than the one he's actually building.
Still massive execution risks but the gap of misunderstanding remains wide, creating massive potential opportunities for investors.
bring on the robots...
I hardly go doctor, but last time I went to the doctor:
Drove 20mins, burn dead dinosaurs
Find parking
Walk through maze to find actual office
Take number
Wait
Get called up, handed clipboard
Fill out 3 full forms of information they already have in the system (complete waste of time --by design)
Pay money
Wait
Get called up to go in doctor office
Take vitals
Wait
See Resident that is learning how to be doctor, resident takes notes and says "I'll get the doctor now"
Wait
Doctor comes in, repeats simple exam and questions resident did, because....well you can't trust the resident apparently.
Get paper script for big pharma drugs
Walk through maze to pharmacy and hand them paper script
Wait
Pay money. Get drugs
Walk back through maze to car
Pay parking
Drive 20mins, burn dead dinosaurs
An Optimus robot in my house, running Grok, connected to a Starlink orbital supercluster, would be able to get me everything I need, way cheaper, without me doing much of anything, and replace every outdated system in that medical supply chain of doom.
I'm ready...
Shocking news out of Hawaii: health insurance is getting more expensive. Individual plans are rising 11–13% for 2027 (HMSA a cool 13.3%, Kaiser a modest 9%). Employers are also staring down high single-digit to double-digit hikes. At least we’re not Washington or Oregon, where they’re jumping 22%.
Should we just start a GoFund account for our deductibles? 😭
