Prediction Markets engineering @coinbase // prev @theclearingco (acq’d by @coinbase) @polymarket @rainbowdotme @truework @notredame
Seattle
Joined December 2009
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nickbytes retweeted
There is a throwaway line in a WSJ story about the Seattle mayor’s failures about how reps from her admin traveled to SF to learn how Lurie was leading such a successful turnaround and were stunned by how it seemed to be connected to hiring competent people who know what they’re doing.
Nordstrom Rack will open next year at 2 Stockton Street, near Union Square! Three years ago, companies were leaving San Francisco. Today, they want to be here, and Nordstrom Rack’s decision to return to the heart of our city is another sign of the growing confidence in San Francisco. The 50,000 square foot Nordstrom Rack is just the latest example of retail coming back downtown.
We're making our streets safer and cleaner, bringing people back downtown, cutting red tape, and creating the conditions for businesses to succeed. I'm thrilled that Nordstrom is choosing to invest in San Francisco again, and look forward to welcoming Nordstrom Rack as we continue building on our city's momentum.
nickbytes retweeted
The Navier Stokes proof drama is good foreshadowing for what happens / becomes important in the entire economy going forward: spotting opportunities, pointing models at them, and validating solutions faster than others. In other words, the economy / knowledge discovery increasingly looks like quant trading / pod shops / HFs, where having a differentiated view of why an opportunity is valuable and/or realizing that an opportunity is valuable (and that it can be plausibly captured/exploited) faster than others is all that matters.
This is from a piece I wrote in October 2025 and I think it will continue to hold a lot of explanatory power.
We congratulate Levent Alpöge and Tristan Buckmaster on their remarkable mathematical work.
We (the researchers and the agents) did not see any of their work through any means until they released it publicly — in particular, no specific user data was accessed in order to solve this problem.
While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models.
However, our proofs differ significantly and even the precise results proved are different in the Euler case (forced vs. unforced).
nickbytes retweeted
i think a lot of ink is going to be spilt on this interview, but my strong view is there is no theory in the world today that isn't best expressed in a company, there are no companies that are not theories.
the corporate structure is totalizing now, karp is the purest form
nickbytes retweeted
Bronze Battle Axe, Shang Dynasty (1600–1046 BC), China. Excavated at Subutun, Yidu, Shangdong Province, 1956.
nickbytes retweeted
First we announced prediction markets on Coinbase.
Now we’re bringing in the specialized talent to take our plans to the next level.
Welcome to Coinbase, @theclearingco.
nickbytes retweeted
A new prediction market startup with a team of ex-Polymarket, ex-Kalshi people and the nondescript name “The Clearing Company” has applied for a CFTC license and aims to launch next year; “We want to be Switzerland” wsj.com/finance/investing/a-…
nickbytes retweeted
Parlays across categories are hard, put them onchain and they are even harder
We’ve made some cool innovations here wrt capital structure and onchain trust mechanisms.
More to come. DM me if u would like to try Lineups.xyz + some other stuff we’ve been cooking.
nickbytes retweeted
Introducing Lineups by @theclearingco
Cross-market parlays, onchain.
nickbytes retweeted
Prediction market supercycle
[ ZOOMER ]
FORMER POLYMARKET AND KALSHI TEAM RAISE $15M FROM UNION SQUARE AND COINBASE TO BUILD AN ONCHAIN, PERMISSIONLESS, AND REGULATED PREDICTION MARKET: BLOCKWORKS
nickbytes retweeted
Very few people in the world understand how to build and scale prediction markets like this team does. Watch this space.
In a world of noise, how do you find signal?
Today we’re announcing @theclearingco has raised a $15m seed round led by @fredwilson @usv with support from @HaunVentures @variantfund & more.
We’re building the first onchain, permissionless *and* regulated prediction market.
nickbytes retweeted
we've been obsessed with prediction markets since the augur days & hadn't met anyone that shared the same frustrations with how stagnant existing products had become
the first time we met toni it was clear he & the team shared a similar vision for what the final form of PMs is
In a world of noise, how do you find signal?
Today we’re announcing @theclearingco has raised a $15m seed round led by @fredwilson @usv with support from @HaunVentures @variantfund & more.
We’re building the first onchain, permissionless *and* regulated prediction market.
nickbytes retweeted
Read the entire thread, but here is the lede for a proven consumer software designer who wants to build an empire alongside @tonigemayel
Markets are collective intelligence. @theclearingco will power a new generation of creator-driven, community-centric markets.
nickbytes retweeted
In a world of noise, how do you find signal?
Today we’re announcing @theclearingco has raised a $15m seed round led by @fredwilson @usv with support from @HaunVentures @variantfund & more.
We’re building the first onchain, permissionless *and* regulated prediction market.