Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8)
California, USA
Joined May 2008
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nextbigfuture retweeted
#GigaBerlinBrandenburg
Tesla is ramping up production in Grünheide – 1,000 new jobs.
This is a direct response to the increased demand for the Model Y.
Weekly production will increase by approximately 20% starting in the third quarter.
nextbigfuture retweeted
Microsoft sold every spare CPU it had to Anthropic and OpenAI. Amazon tripled its CPU buys year over year and still can't keep up. Two of AWS's biggest customers asked Andy Jassy if they could buy the entire 2026 production run of Graviton chips. He said no.
The ratio inside an AI datacenter used to be 100 megawatts of GPUs to 1 megawatt of CPUs. CPUs handled storage, checkpointing, pre-processing. Light work. GPUs did the actual training and inference.
Then OpenAI shipped o1-preview in September 2024. RL post-training went from "check the model output with a regex" to "run classifiers" to "compile the code and run the unit tests" to "spin up a sandbox, call three databases, run a physics simulation, verify the answer."
Every rollout now needs a CPU-backed environment to verify against.
Codex 5.4 runs agentically for 6-7 hours at a time. Each database call, each cron job, each scraped URL is CPU work. Coding agent revenue went from a couple billion to north of $10B in six months. That compute is sitting on CPUs.
The CPU to GPU ratio is now approaching 1:1. The entire global cloud was built for 1:8.
That's why GitHub has been unstable for weeks. Nvidia and Arm both announced they're entering the server CPU market in March. TSMC will only meet 80% of server CPU wafer demand this year. High-end server CPU prices are already up 50%.
When the GPU king and the IP licensor both pivot to CPUs in the same month, the boring chip isn't boring anymore.
nextbigfuture retweeted
Memory chip demand to go up exponentially by 625 times. Basic math.
"So 25 times 25 is 625 times. I know most of you are pretty good at math." - Dell CEO Michael Dell
nextbigfuture retweeted
BREAKING 🚨At 2:30 AM Elon Musk reposted this video of this young lady EXPOSING Google:
“Only 2% of Google's morning articles were from a right-leaning news site the vast majority of the rest, all from left-wing outlets”
STOP THE STEAL
nextbigfuture retweeted
🇺🇸 SAN FRAN BLACKOUT – WAYMO FROZE, TESLA DROVE
Waymo’s robotaxis got a little too real last night - by completely shutting down when San Francisco’s power outage knocked out traffic lights.
Meanwhile, Teslas on FSD? Kept rolling. No drama, no headlines - just handling chaos like it’s a walk in the park.
This is what happens when you train your AI on billions of real-world miles instead of coddling it in a simulation padded with perfect data and wishful thinking.
Waymo bet on maps and order. Tesla bet on mess - and won. When the lights go out, the difference isn’t theoretical. It’s traffic.
Source: @teslasi, @elonmusk
nextbigfuture retweeted
Starship could deliver 100GW/year to high Earth orbit within 4 to 5 years if we can solve the other parts of the equation.
100TW/year is possible from a lunar base producing solar-powered AI satellites locally and accelerating them to escape velocity with a mass driver.
nextbigfuture retweeted
each starlink v3 appears to have ~100 kW of solar (based on array dimensions). starship should carry ~50–100 per flight — call it ~6 MW nameplate per launch at 60 sats.
spacex applied for ~30k sats → ~3 GW of orbital solar in total
if starship hits even conservative projected launch rates, they’d be able to launch a nuclear reactor worth of power capacity per year by the end of the decade. unprecedented scale.
nextbigfuture retweeted
The next round of names rumored to get equity stakes or direct funding from the Trump administration.
Current exposure sits in $INTC for chip manufacturing, $MP for rare earth refining, $LAC for lithium mining & $TMQ for mineral exploration.
Next wave lining up:
• Battery metals | $NMG, $NVX, $MTRN, $ELBM
• Copper | $SCCO, $HBM, $FCX, $IE, $ERO, $TGB
• Lithium | $ALB, $SQM, $SGML, $RIO, $IONR, $ATLX
• Rare earths | $USAR, $IDR, $CRML, $TMRC, $UAMY, $NB, $AREC, $PPTA, $TMC, $UUUU, $IPX
• Uranium | $CCJ, $LEU, $UUUU, $UEC, $AEC, $UROY, $URG, $DNN, $ISOU, $NXE, $EU
This is the playbook for America’s resource rebuild.
nextbigfuture retweeted
Breaking news! @Tesla @robotaxi service area has expanded again this morning!
This includes a huge new area west of Austin including the Monaco area, the airport and Giga Texas!
Hopefully the vehicle fleet size has increased too. Soon this should be opened to many more people too!
nextbigfuture retweeted
17/ "Back in 2002, I didn’t like the system. They give you a press visa. It’s more expensive than a tourist visa. You have to come to the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance and pay for the issuance of accreditation.
nextbigfuture retweeted
I was skeptical at first, but the No Kings rally worked.
I woke up this morning and my country still has no king.
Good job, everyone!
nextbigfuture retweeted
Mossad agents struck Iran from the inside before Israel’s June 13 air raid, Times of Israel.
They planted high-precision munitions near SAM sites, smuggled camouflaged launchers, and built a suicide drone base near Tehran. 1/
nextbigfuture retweeted
Porsche and Volvo profits sink in Q1 because of tariffs that came in 2 days after the end of Q1.
Get ready for the almighty excuse for every company that has bad earnings.
TARIFFS!
Every country whose economy does badly - it's not because of the Government's policy. It's tariffs!
Everything will be blamed on tariffs even if the tariffs had precisely nothing to do with it whatsoever.
If anything, Volvo and Porsche sales should have been frontloaded into Q1 in anticipation of the tariffs hitting.
Porsche Operating Profit fell 40%... But the 25% car tariff was announced on March 26 with only 3 business days of Q1 remaining and it was not active until April 2.
In fact - look at the data... Deliveries in North America were UP 37% in Q1...
But I guess it was the US tariffs that meant Porsche sales collapsed in China and Europe.
nextbigfuture retweeted
Quick reminder that our upcoming Quantum Drive tests onboard @RogueSpaceCorp's OTP-2 are indeed just that--tests. We want to confirm that they work in space like we've seen them work in terrestrial vacuum test environments.
nextbigfuture retweeted
Rogue said that there is a second thruster that uses a novel combination of distilled and boronated water as dual propellant, (in addition to the IVO drive).
nanosats.eu/sat/otp-2
