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~ HFT

Joined April 2017
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Any model which aims at explaining fluctuations should focus primarily on speculative trading
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Sunset skies afire tonight in #NYC on the eve of the Nor'easter. #NewYork #NewYorkCity #sunset
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These guys are the ones that make the most money. @aRishisays
Replying to @discoverytrader
During my first week of trading career, my colleague and I asked one of our seniors (who had been trading eurodollar for 18 months or so quite successfully) what a calendar spread is. His answer was: Don't worry what an outright or spread or fly is. If it is going higher, buy it. If it is going lower, sell it. We had no further questions. We still tease him about that episode to this day.
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I was the main counterparty for airline puts before/during the 9/11 attacks (I was in the World Trade Center building for lunch the day before); they were buying puts in $UAL and American Airlines for weeks before the attacks. Brokers would call me and ask for a bid, I sold some, they seemed rich, then richer, then they just kept coming. When someone is buying a dollar bill for $1.01, you think, "sucker." When someone pays you $1.05 for a dollar, you think this is free money; when someone pays you $5 for $1, you bury your face in research, study the trade and you're very worried; when someone pays you $10 for $1, you know you're dead, but it just has not happened yet (and this is after I already got my ass kicked in Enron). The morning of 9/11, I would have blown out hard and would have had to fire about 60 or 70 people; the market didn't open, so that saved my firm. We didn't know there were 4 planes in the air, it could have been 4000 planes for all I knew so I told all of my traders to go home. My office was at the Cboe so I assumed it was also a target, and our lives were in danger. I was very worried that my NYC guys were dead (they were ok). I had no idea what to expect the next few days. When the market did open, I was down massively, but not blown out. The markets were so wide and the trading was so good we were net profitable by early November, a stunning turn of events. Stories about money feel gross when some people lost everything; I'm very sympathetic to the people who went through unimaginable hardship and I feel like me talking about trading is so small and petty in juxtaposition to the seriousness of true loss that many thousands of people experienced.
Replying to @NoelSmith
I wish you would annually publish your Tweet/Xeet about the crazy Put buying pror to 9/11. Still one the most extraordinary things I’ve read about 9/11 and that is saying something
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Announcing Discovery Loop! I am very excited to announce that, along with my longtime friends and collaborators @Sanjay_Ghemawat, @OriolVinyalsML and @quocleix, we are founding Discovery Loop (@DiscoLoopAI), a Public Benefit Corporation whose mission is to automate machine learning, science, and engineering to accelerate discoveries and progress. The four of us have worked together for 14 to 30 years, and have helped build some of the world’s most used products, infrastructure and AI models, and we’re excited to turn our attention to this ambitious endeavor. ♾ Learn more at: discoveryloop.com
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In 2015 I formed a small group of engineers at Jane Street to rebuild the firm’s core trading system from the ground up, and we ended up cutting latency by two orders of magnitude. Some of the techniques we used, relevant for algorithmic trading systems and exchanges today: Zero allocation: Whenever a program allocates memory for an object on the heap, the runtime pays a steep penalty in latency. The simplest solution is to avoid memory allocation entirely. Jane Street famously uses OCaml, a strongly typed programming language that by default produces garbage collected by a dynamic collector. Most other firms use languages with manual memory management, but it was a strict part of Jane Street’s tech culture that all risk-sensitive code had to be written in OCaml. It took a collaborative effort across multiple groups within Jane Street’s technology org to create zero-allocation core libraries, combining the type safety of a functional programming language with the memory profile of a language like C. We built the new main trading loop in this hybrid OCaml/C-style, producing zero new allocations in the critical path from tick to trade. In modern languages like Rust, it is substantially easier to achieve precise memory management while still benefiting from type safety and compile-time guarantees. Kernel bypass: A primary goal of a low-latency trading system or exchange is to pull a network packet containing market data or order flow through the network card’s interface and into the program’s memory space as fast as possible. The standard Linux OS kernel uses slow abstractions to support a wide variety of network drivers, at the expense of the entire system’s end-to-end latency. When we started with an empty program that contained no business logic and only forwarded packets through when received, the end-to-end latency was already too slow. To fix this issue, we employed a standard practice in the HFT industry in which we bypassed the OS’s kernel stack entirely by leveraging our network card vendors’ proprietary APIs to DMA packets straight from the NIC into memory. This technique brought our empty-packet-forwarding baseline into the latency regime we needed in order to build out the rest of the trading, risk, and protocol code. Local IPC: Kernel bypass is necessary when reading routed packets off a network from a third party such as another exchange or client connection. When communicating between internal instead of external processes, the fastest transports avoid network stacks entirely. Processes within the same box can transfer messages using shared memory or Unix domain sockets. This allowed us to continue with our familiar process boundaries for separable components without sacrificing significant performance. We had to write custom logic to emulate many of the features of network- and transport-layer protocols, with the result of creating a reusable, zero-overhead IPC mechanism. Working on this problem was one of the most intellectually rewarding experiences of my early career. The above latency optimization techniques are fairly commonplace in the HFT trade but hard to learn outside the industry setting. Half of our team at Architect comes from Jane Street and other trading firms, and we value using our domain knowledge to build exchanges for the public rather than trading software that never leaves an HFT’s walls.
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Jeff Sprecher, founder and CEO of $ICE (owns the NYSE) on Hyperliquid: "This Hyperliquid that we're talking -- if you haven't heard about it, it's bigger than NASDAQ, okay? It's 11 people. You look at it, you're like, wow, that's pretty something." If it wasn't clear before, hyperliquid:native has grown far beyond crypto. The incumbents have noticed, are paying close attention, and even spending time with the team Bernstein excerpt below and worth the read imo:
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“I’m buying spot Anthropic on the Solana blockchain” has to be one of the funniest phrases I’ve heard this week. There is nothing spot about this. Brother you are 4 layers of financial abstraction and broker crime away from touching an actual Anthropic share certificate. Your “spot” position is a tokenized receipt for possible future economic exposure to a Cayman SPV that owns shares in another Delaware SPV that maybe owns rights to future equity pending transfer approval. You are approximately Anthropic-adjacent at best
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PRESENTING: FEDLOCK In today's newsletter, I write about my latest vibecoding foray, wherein I attempt use LLMs -- specifically via the "LLM-as-Judge" approach -- to measuring the hawkishness of central bank communication over time. Try it here: jnathan9.github.io/fedlock/
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🤠 retweeted
JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
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🤠 retweeted
"a $7B japanese toilet company just discovered its ceramics tool can be used to make bleeding-edge AI chips." TOTO has been selling electrostatic chucks since 1988
this is fucking hilarious. a $7B japanese toilet company just discovered its ceramics tool can be used to make bleeding-edge AI chips. thats a $60 Billion market. their stock is up 60% on the news.
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Alex Pretti was murdered.
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LISTEN YOU SILICON VALLEY RIGHT WING FUCKS. IF YOU DONT GET YOUR ORANGE LAPDOG TO BACK THE FUCK OFF OUR FRIEND JEROME WE FINANCIERS ARE GONNA SEND TREASURY YIELDS SO HIGH 1983 IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE A HAPPY DAYDREAM IN COMPARISON. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER
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Umm, the Muni CDS market is almost non-existent. The only name in the DTCC top 1000 report is City of Chicago at 125mm gross notional outstanding. @chamath maybe it’s like Wally World where they opened up the park just for you?
I think this is the most asymmetric upside bet in the market now. Position yourself smartly and you can make 10-1000x with relative ease. How? Even if politicians try to bury the fraud, the bond market can’t ignore it. Their math will show that even if the fraud is only 10% of total state and municipal budgets, it’s already way too much and should go to paying back debt holders. Right now spreads don’t reflect this and are too tight - ie look at California Credit Default Swaps - it doesn’t reflect any fraud, budget shortfalls or the billionaire exodus. There is little chance these spreads don’t move as the bond market comes back to work and processes the events of the last few days. Now, if instead of 10% fraud, they believe that fraud is 20-30% of all tax dollars, the cost of borrowing will escalate sharply until federal, state and local governments are forced to act. This is when the CDS trade becomes the most asymmetric profit opportunity of our lifetime. Buy the CDS -> wait for politicians to try and bury it -> ie in California -> see the bond market increase borrowing costs -> see the CDS blow out -> asymmetric bet pays off. The takeaway here is that the bond market lives in an alternative and adjacent universe from the politicians and media. The latter group can try to bury an issue but when the former group is asked to fund it, a reckoning happens and the former group always wins.
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Educational tweet: With the recent blowup of the retail iron condor crowd. It’s a good reminder that trading structures are NOT strategies. There is no edge in naively selling or buying an iron condor/ straddle/ ratio etc. Anyone running a program or fund or whatever, around this core premise has a clear misunderstanding of how derivative trading actually functions.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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When ETFs die. A large holder of QIS wanted out. Instead of liquidating the fund, Simplify had SVOL buy nearly all QIS shares. That effectively killed SVOL. QIS was extremely illiquid Jane Street (the LMM) widened markets due to holding 2,000 illiquid swaps. QIS was forced to unwind thousands of positions and got smoked.
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