Robbie G (@discoverytrader) profile picture

Old school rates & index spreader/scalper. Former quant firm principal & DTG co-founder, a unique ‘dojo’ for price action/flow traders. NO investment advice

Global
Joined January 2011
Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)Photo by Robbie G (@discoverytrader)
As many know we’ve never really marketed DTG. We’ve purposefully kept it small & those who belong always just seem to find us. There’s never been a video encapsulating what the ‘dojo’ is REALLY all about. So after nearly 14 years, I finally made one.✅ youtu.be/YqHjQD0rGo8?si=lPJ9…
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Oh no…I made a non risk/reward objective “call” on the Z8 trade. Missed “calling” the case low by a half bp tho. 😂
Replying to @Dcpcooks
Oh yeah good was gonna if I held them 27s would have been the best I could have done. Also note as we discussed reversing into Z8 long on cover ideal for the next narrative as you gotta believe that’s over cooked relative. Now that inital rip done long on PB from 40s the ticket
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Pretty accurate actually.😂
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Texbook member swing scalper #FED day fade op y/d. Thesis over iteration expects as clock winds down on the day becomes more & more unlikely mkt breaks into new range. Paper thin reject of prices below Globex low followed by 2nd push low fail good for 5-6 handles. $ES #ORDERFLOW
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Someone asked about the flow I just circled in red. Note thin prints after last low failed in dark blue w/hard lift up and out. Just after prints are thin because mkt moving quickly there as top of book MMs pull offers to see what shorts want to puke…
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…and they did starting in circle pausing the lift. Question was would scalpers have held through that? Def not & would be exiting on other side of that lifting. Member intraday swingers tend to cue most off push & pull price action failures so most exited into maroon square
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Boy ain’t that the truth. (not so) brave new world folks. I’d suggest self reflection & harsh critique of such weaknesses as a first step. But fear most in the youngest generation simply haven’t the 1st clue how. Entirely skipped in upbringing. Buckle up. It’s just the beginning.
The problem isn’t that AI is intelligent. It isn’t. The problem is that too many adults (but not all) are at once mechanistic, imitative, unimaginative, stupid, formulaic, influenceable, & gullible, arrogant beyond their skill set, & too expensive to maintain.
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Replying to @patrick_saner
Great thread Patrick. Zero surprise for me tbh but fascinating to see the data and details. Cheers.👊
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Curvy swervy progress plot by request. Now in blue vs as of SEP 16 in white & SEP 29 in gold. Dial 1-800-ASK @aRishisays 😉
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fwiw greens maybe still undershot but reds overshot if you fink inflation higherz for longerz
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Naive amongst you (and you are many…see Dunning-Kruger) should burn this into your F’ing pea brains. It’s all over but the shouting. Just a question of how long sorry to say…
Wow just wow
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Coyote bets curve against roadrunner, innit
Wife wants a movie What do you think @discoverytrader * We joke about the falling anvil in trading constantly
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In case you weren’t awake and were curious…
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Tru dat as the kidz say deez daze.💪
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Looks like Dan recorded & pieced together the false start fragments from the spaces I jumped in on w/@Dcpcooks & him on Friday. From the timestamp looks like he must have edited it a lot too. Hopefully not too much. Gotta be lots of drunken comedy gold in there from those two.😂
Old(er) Guys, Market History, Performance and Interest Rates: Friday Spaces on X On Friday, @discoverytrader had the idea that @Dcpcooks , he and I get together on X for an informal and loose discussion for an "X Spaces" discussion at the end of the trading week. Unfortunately, we had some technical problems with the Spaces feed (there were actually three different spaces, as it kept dropping). So we took it all down, and we spliced them all together into one feed. GTC's lawyer asked that I put the risk disclaimer on it, since we were doing so. Regardless, here is the reconstructed audio ... $STUDY $SPY $SPX $ZT_F $ZN_F $ZB_F $UB_F $TLT #spaces #fintwit
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You all can’t get off the hook that easy…Quiet as church mice innit. 🐭
Replying to @discoverytrader
…and meant to add I’d also love to hear what some of the other bros from the private #STIR chats think - @aRishisays @joegilster @acllc2 @EffMktHype @conksresearch @deerpointmacro @EconstratPB et. al.
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Here’s the curvy swervy progress plot to go with the attached post/proposed discussion from the spaces. Now vs as of SEP #FOMC in white & JUL #FED in gold. Note hitch continues to move out from M7 to U7 & now close to Z7. Persistence narrative innit.🤔
OK so in the spaces I did Friday night w/@Dcpcooks & @GtcTraders I proposed what I think is ‘the’ key spread to ponder going forward $SR3 Z7-Z8 & asked which way he’d trade it if I made him NOW. Bourbon clouded the answer lol so we can pick up where we left off here… #SOFR #STIR
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…and meant to add I’d also love to hear what some of the other bros from the private #STIR chats think - @aRishisays @joegilster @acllc2 @EffMktHype @conksresearch @deerpointmacro @EconstratPB et. al.
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OK so in the spaces I did Friday night w/@Dcpcooks & @GtcTraders I proposed what I think is ‘the’ key spread to ponder going forward $SR3 Z7-Z8 & asked which way he’d trade it if I made him NOW. Bourbon clouded the answer lol so we can pick up where we left off here… #SOFR #STIR
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…Donnie did manage to point how how flat that part of curve is now & thinks there’s about half a policy change increment worth of slop now. Note whole range since start of conflict just a bit more than 25 bps edge to edge & pretty much dead center w/12-13 bps to either side.👊
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…the thesis surrounding the trade obviously is whether inflation pressure persists in the front leg and/or whether the end of DT term ushers in a new no conflict cheap money slosh era in back leg. Tricky esp because it’s not clear which side likely pays more if you’re right. 😂
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