Per Kpler, out of the global fleet of 923 VLCCs, roughly 120 Iranian vessels are essentially off-limits to mainstream charterers. Back those out and you’re left with around 803 VLCCs, of which 766 are actively trading—running the effective fleet at roughly 95% utilization. On top of that this print doesn’t even account for other sanctioned or mechanically sidelined tonnage, which points to the real physic tape being significantly tighter than headline numbers suggest. Yet the tonnage squeeze isn’t just a raw vessel count problem. Kpler data shows the laden share of the active VLCC fleet hovering near 42%, running well below the historical benchmark of roughly 45%. Concurrently ballast runs are printing abnormally elevated, with roughly 20 more VLCCs sailing in ballast than what 2025 seasonal baseline models would predict. Stretched ton miles, fractured trade corridors, and rampant STS transfers are decimating aggregate fleet efficiency—demanding substantially more bottoms just to lift the exact same aggregate volume of crude. Even if the US admin issues temporary sanctions relief across NITC, Sovcomflot, and qualifying blacklisted vessels, this tonnage won't hit the water overnight, and plenty of them are already tied up carrying crude. That said even a partial re-entry into mainstream commercial trades could take the edge off this capacity deficit and put genuine downward pressure on dirty freight. The trade-off is inherently geopolitical, but with freight eating up such an outsized chunk of landed crude values right now, expanding the available tanker pool could offer some desperately needed breathing room. Thanks for the great update Javier! So bullish for crude! Btw isn't your job to post nonstop bearish oil headlines? Did you fight with your boss today or what? Though right on cue for 2pm ET, looks like the shorts are out in full force anyway! promised time is here lol. Algos get horny over "sanctions waiver" headlines but need 10k AI tokens to actually understand what it means. #oott #iran #russia