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๐Ÿง I am interested in economic trends and are exploring them. ๐Ÿค” โœจ๏ธNo DMโœจ๏ธ๐Ÿคญ

Asan-si, Republic of Korea
Joined December 2011
Photo by Haejo (@mp3saesang)Photo by Haejo (@mp3saesang)Photo by Haejo (@mp3saesang)Photo by Haejo (@mp3saesang)Photo by Haejo (@mp3saesang)Photo by Haejo (@mp3saesang)Photo by Haejo (@mp3saesang)
TikTok Lite์—์„œ ์ €์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ฆฌ์›Œ๋“œ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์œผ์„ธ์š”! ์ œ ์ถ”์ฒœ ์ฝ”๋“œ๋ฅผ ๊ฒ€์ƒ‰ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ์— ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•˜์„ธ์š”. ์ฝ”๋“œ: 909905438 lite.tiktok.com/t/ZS9UuDvMq5โ€ฆ
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๋ถ€์˜ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋Š” ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹˜. ๋ˆ์ด ๋ถˆ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ์ž„์— ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐˆ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž„. ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ด ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๊ณง๋ฐ”๋กœ ์„ธ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ„ ๋ถ€์˜ ๋ถˆํ‰๋“ฑ์„ ๋– ์˜ฌ๋ฆผ. ๋…ธ๋…„์ธต์€ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ฒญ๋…„์ธต์€ ๋œ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ๋„ ๋Š˜ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์˜ด. ๋” ์ €์ถ•ํ•˜๋ผ. ๋” ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๋ผ. ๋” ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋ฒ„ํ…จ๋ผ. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ด ํ•ด์„์€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์„ ๋†“์นจ. ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์–ผ๋งˆ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹˜. ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒŒ์ž„์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ์ž„. ๊ฒ‰์œผ๋กœ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜๋Š” ์ˆซ์ž๋Š” ๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•จ. 70์„ธ ์ด์ƒ์€ ์ „์ฒด ์ฃผ์‹๊ณผ ํŽ€๋“œ์˜ 17%๋ฅผ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. 2008๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ์„ธ ๋ฐฐ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚œ ์ˆ˜์น˜์ž„. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด 40์„ธ ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์€ ์•ฝ 3%์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผํ•จ. 1980๋…„๋Œ€์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ž„. ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋Š” 14%p. ๊ธฐ๋ก์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํผ. ์ด ์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ Š์€ ์„ธ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํˆฌ์ž์— ์†Œ๊ทน์ ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•จ. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์›์ธ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ž„. ์ Š์€ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋Š” ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์•ˆ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹˜. ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ์ž์‚ฐ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ์˜ฌ๋ผํƒ€๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์ž„. ์ฃผ์‹์€ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ฒŒ์ž„์ž„. ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ณ , ์•ˆ์ •๋œ ํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์  ์—ฌ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•จ. ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ด ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์„ธ๋Œ€์—๊ฒŒ ๋™์‹œ์— ์‚ฌ๋ผ์กŒ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ž„. ์ปค๋ฆฌ์–ด๋Š” ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ •ํ•ด์กŒ์Œ. ์ฃผ๊ฑฐ๋น„๋Š” ํญ๋“ฑํ–ˆ์Œ. AI๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์†Œ๋“์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ™•์‹ ์„ ๊นŽ์•„๋จน๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ์ด ์ƒํƒœ์—์„œ S&P500์— 30๋…„ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์€ ์ „๋žต์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ฐ€์ •์ž„. 30๋…„ ๋’ค์—๋„ ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์ด ๊ฒŒ์ž„ ์•ˆ์— ๋‚จ์•„ ์žˆ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ •. ์ง€๊ธˆ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋Š” ๊ทธ ๊ฐ€์ •์„ ๋ฏฟ์ง€ ์•Š์Œ. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋„ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ์—ˆ์Œ. ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์—๋Š” ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์Œ“์ด๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์˜€์Œ. ๋…ธ๋™ํ•˜๊ณ , ์ €์ถ•ํ•˜๊ณ , ์ž์‚ฐ์„ ์‚ฌ๊ณ , ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€๋‚˜๋ฉฐ ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์˜€์Œ. ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ๋‹ค๋ฆ„. ์ด์ œ๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์ž์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน์— ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•จ. ์ฆ‰ ๋ถ€๋Š” ๋” ์ด์ƒ ์ฐจ๊ณก์ฐจ๊ณก ์Œ“์•„๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹˜. ์• ์ดˆ์— ๊ทธ ํŒ์— ์˜ฌ๋ผํƒ€ ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋์Œ. ์ด๋ฏธ ์ž์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ์— ์˜ฌ๋ผํƒ€ ์žˆ์Œ. ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„๋„ ์ฃผ์‹, ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ, ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ณ„์† ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ํก์ˆ˜ํ•จ. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ์ž์‚ฐ์ด ์—†๋Š” ์„ธ๋Œ€๋Š” ์• ์ดˆ์— ๊ทธ ํ๋ฆ„์— ํƒ€์ง€ ๋ชปํ•จ. ์ด๊ฑด ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹˜. ๋ˆ์ด ์ปค์ง€๋Š” ํŒ์— ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ  ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ–์— ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž„. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์นด์ง€๋…ธ๊ฐ€ ์—ด๋ฆผ. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์™œ ์ Š์€ ์„ธ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํฌ๋ฆฝํ† , ์˜ต์…˜, ์Šคํฌ์ธ  ๋ฒ ํŒ…, ์˜ˆ์ธก์‹œ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ์˜คํ•ดํ•จ. ๊ทธ๊ฑด ํƒ์š• ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด ์•„๋‹˜. ๋‹ซํ˜€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฌธ ์˜†์—์„œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ž…๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์›€. ์ „ํ†ต ์ž์‚ฐ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๋А๋ฆฌ๊ณ , ํ์‡„์ ์ด๊ณ , ์ด๋ฏธ ์Šน์ž๊ฐ€ ์ •ํ•ด์ง„ ๊ฒŒ์ž„์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ณด์ž„. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ๊ณ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ , ์—ด๋ ค ์žˆ๊ณ , ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ๋‚˜์˜ด. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฑด ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์ˆ˜์ต๋ฅ ๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹˜. ์‹œ๊ฐ„๊ณผ ์ฃผ๋„๊ถŒ์ž„. ์ Š์€ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋Š” ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ์—ฐ 10% ์ˆ˜์ต๋ฅ ์€ ๊ทธ ์ž์ฒด๋กœ๋Š” ๋ณ„ ์˜๋ฏธ๊ฐ€ ์—†์Œ. ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ 10%๋ฅผ 30๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ๋ˆ„๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ณด์žฅ์ด ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž„. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํ™•๋ฅ ์— ๋ฒ ํŒ…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์†๋„์™€ ํƒˆ์ถœ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋ฒ ํŒ…ํ•จ. ์ด๊ฑธ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ํˆฌ๊ธฐ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ฝ์œผ๋ฉด ํ‹€๋ฆผ. ์ด๊ฑด ๊ธˆ์œต๋งŒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹˜. ๋…ธ๋™ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๋ถ•๊ดด, ์ž์‚ฐ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ํ์‡„์„ฑ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์— ์˜ํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์••์ถ•. ์ด ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ฒน์นœ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ž„. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ์†Œ์…œ ๋ฏธ๋””์–ด๊ฐ€ ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ๋Šฆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ๋งค์ผ๊ฐ™์ด ์ฃผ์ž…ํ•จ. ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋‘ ๊ฒŒ์ž„ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋จ. ์ฒœ์ฒœํžˆ ํ™•์‹คํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ€๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ์ž„, ํ˜น์€ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹คํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋’ค์ง‘์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ์ž„. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ ์  ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ํ›„์ž๋ฅผ ์„ ํƒํ•จ. ์ด๊ฑด ๋น„์ด์„ฑ์  ์„ ํƒ์ด ์•„๋‹˜. ์ฃผ์–ด์ง„ ์กฐ๊ฑด ์•ˆ์—์„œ ๋‚˜๋ฆ„ ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์ธ ์„ ํƒ์ž„. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋” ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€ ์ด๊ฒŒ ์˜ณ์œผ๋ƒ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹˜. ์ด ๊ตฌ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋€” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ƒ์ž„. ์ž์‚ฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜ฌ ๊ฒƒ์ธ๊ฐ€. ๋…ธ๋™์€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ณด์ƒ๋ฐ›๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐˆ ๊ฒƒ์ธ๊ฐ€. AI๋Š” ๊ธฐํšŒ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด๋ฉด์„œ ๋™์‹œ์— ์•ˆ์ •์„ฑ๋„ ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ธ๊ฐ€. ์ด ์„ธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‹ต์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ค๋ผ๋ฉด, ์ด ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ์ผ์‹œ์  ์œ ํ–‰์ด ์•„๋‹˜. ๊ณ„์† ์ด์–ด์งˆ ํ๋ฆ„์ž„. ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•จ. ๋ถ€์˜ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ž„. ๋ณธ์งˆ์€ ๋ˆ์ด ์ปค์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒŒ์ž„์— ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ  ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ€๋ ค๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ์ž„. ์ Š์€ ์„ธ๋Œ€๋Š” ๊ฐ€๋‚œํ•ด์„œ ํˆฌ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹˜. ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๊ธธ์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋ฉ€๊ณ , ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋А๋ฆฌ๊ณ , ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋‹ซํ˜€ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ  ๋” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๊ธธ๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž„. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด ํ๋ฆ„์€ ๋„๋•์œผ๋กœ ๋ง‰์„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Œ. ๊ต์œก์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๋ง‰์„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Œ. ๊ตฌ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ , ๋” ์—ด๋ ค ์žˆ๊ณ , ๋” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๊ฒŒ์ž„์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž„. ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฑด ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์ด๊ธฐ๋А๋ƒ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹˜. ์–ด๋–ค ํŒ์— ๊ณ„์† ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋А๋ƒ์ž„.
The gap between older and younger equity holders has never been wider: Americans aged 70+ now hold a record 17% of all US equities and mutual fund shares outstanding. The percentage has TRIPLED since the 2008 Financial Crisis low. At the same time, Americans under 40 own just ~3%, in-line with 2003 levels. This percentage is HALF of what it was in the late 1980s. As a result, the difference between the two cohorts is now ~14 percentage points, the widest on record. By comparison, the gap stood at ~6 percentage points at the start of the 1990s. The wealth gap is widening.
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ํฅ๋ฏธ์ง„์ง„ํ•œ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ๋ฆฌ์›Œ๋“œ ๋“ฑ์„ ํš๋“ํ•˜์„ธ์š”! lite.tiktok.com/t/ZS98VADv5Kโ€ฆ
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์˜ค๋Š˜ ์Šˆ์นด์›”๋“œ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ธ๋ฐ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์ด ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ํ•ญ๊ณต์œ  ์ˆ˜์ถœ 1์œ„ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ž„. ๊ธฐ๋ฆ„ ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ์šธ ์•ˆ ๋‚˜๋Š” ๋น„์‚ฐ์œ ๊ตญ์ธ๋ฐ ์ •์ œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๊ฝ‰ ์žก๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ํŠนํžˆ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์„œ๋ถ€ ์ง€์—ญ์€ ํ•ญ๊ณต์œ  ์ˆ˜์ž…๋Ÿ‰์˜ 80~90%๋ฅผ ํ•œ๊ตญ์— ์˜์กดํ•  ์ •๋„์ž„. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ตœ๊ทผ ์ด๋ž€ ์‚ฌํƒœ๋กœ ์ค‘๋™ ์ •์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ณ€ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋ฐ˜์ „๋จ. ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ์•ˆ์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ด๋ฒˆ ๋‹ฌ(2026๋…„ 3์›”)๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์„์œ ์ œํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•˜๋Š” '์ˆ˜์ถœ ์บก' ์ œ๋„๋ฅผ ๋„์ž…ํ–ˆ์Œ. ์ˆ˜์ถœ 1์œ„๊ตญ์ธ ํ•œ๊ตญ์ด ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์กฐ์ ˆํ•˜์ž๋งˆ์ž ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ ์šฐ๋ ค๋กœ ๋ฏธ ์„œ๋ถ€ ํ•ญ๊ณต์œ  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด 44๊ฐœ์›” ๋งŒ์— ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•จ. ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•ด์ง€์ž ๋ฏธ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ง€๋‚œ 3์›” 19์ผ, 100๋…„ ๋„˜๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€ํ•ด ์˜จ '์กด์Šค๋ฒ•(Jones Act)'์„ 60์ผ๊ฐ„ ์ „๊ฒฉ ์œ ์˜ˆํ•˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•จ. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ดํ•ญ ์šด์†ก์€ ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์„ ๋ฐ•๋งŒ ์ด์šฉํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฒ•์ธ๋ฐ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์‚ฐ ํ•ญ๊ณต์œ ๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ  ์œ ์—ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์‹ค์–ด ๋‚˜๋ฅด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์™ธ๊ตญ ๊ตญ์  ์„ ๋ฐ•์—๋„ ๊ธธ์„ ์—ด์–ด์ค€ ๊ฒƒ์ž„. ๋น„์‚ฐ์œ ๊ตญ์ธ ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ์ •์œ  ์‚ฐ์—…์ด ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์—์„œ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ ์ธ ์œ„์น˜์ธ์ง€, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์„ฑ์—ญ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ์›€์ง์ด๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ์ „๋žต ์ž์‚ฐ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ด ์ƒˆ์‚ผ ํ™•์ธ๋˜๋Š” ๋Œ€๋ชฉ์ž„. ์ฐธ๊ณ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ด€๊ณ„: ์ˆ˜์ถœ 1์œ„: ํ•œ๊ตญ์€ ์‹ค์ œ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ํ•ญ๊ณต์œ  ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ ์œ ์œจ 1์œ„์ž„. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์˜์กด๋„: ๋ฏธ ์„œ๋ถ€(PADD 5) ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ์‚ฐ ํ•ญ๊ณต์œ  ์ˆ˜์ž… ๋น„์ค‘์€ ์ ˆ๋Œ€์ ์ž„. ์กด์Šค๋ฒ• ์œ ์˜ˆ: 2026๋…„ 3์›” 19์ผ, ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•ด ๋ฏธ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์กด์Šค๋ฒ• ์ ์šฉ์„ 60์ผ๊ฐ„ ์œ ์˜ˆํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ณด๋„๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์žฌํ•จ.news.nate.com/view/20260319nโ€ฆ
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2,457
413,678
ํ˜ธ์žฌ์—๋„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ ์˜ค๋ฅด๋ฉด ํŒ”์•„๋ผ | 260322 1. ์Šคํƒ ๋ฆฌ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ์˜ ์ด ๋ง์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ–‰๋™์ด ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ž์„ ๋‹ค๋Š” ํ†ต์ฐฐ์ž„. "๋ชจ๋“  ์†Œ์‹์ด ์ข‹์€๋ฐ๋„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๋ฅด์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด ํŒ”์•„๋ผ, ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค"์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฐœ์–ธ์€ ๋‰ด๋งˆ์ผ“ ์œ„์ €์ฆˆ ๋“ฑ ์ธํ„ฐ๋ทฐ์—์„œ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋“ฑ์žฅํ•จ. ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ํ˜ธ์žฌ๋ฅผ ์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‹ค์Œ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ๋จผ์ € ์›€์ง์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž„. 2. ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ๋Š” ๋งค์ผ ๋ฐค 4์‹œ 30๋ถ„์— 272๊ฐœ์˜ ์ฐจํŠธ๋ฅผ ํ™•์ธํ•จ. ์ฃผ์‹, ์›์ž์žฌ, ํ†ตํ™”, ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ์‹œ์žฅ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ผ๊ฐ„ยท์ฃผ๊ฐ„ยท์›”๊ฐ„ ์ฐจํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ง์ ‘ ๋ณด๋ฉฐ, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์— ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๋งค๋„ ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ ๋ด„. ๋ถ„์„๋ณด๋‹ค ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ๋ฐ˜์‘์„ ๋” ์‹ ๋ขฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์ž„. 3. ์ด ๊ฐœ๋…์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์€ '์†Œ์ง„๋œ ๋งค์ˆ˜์„ธ'์ž„. ํ˜ธ์žฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”๋Š”๋ฐ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋ชป ์˜ค๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฑด, ์ด๋ฏธ ์‚ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ๋‹ค ์ƒ€๊ณ  ๋‚จ์€ ๊ฑด ํŒ” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋ฟ์ด๋ž€ ๋œป์ž„. ๊ธฐ์—… ์‹ค์  ๋ฐœํ‘œ ๋•Œ ์–ด๋‹ ์„œํ”„๋ผ์ด์ฆˆ ๋‚˜์™”๋Š”๋ฐ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ๊ฐ™์€ ์›๋ฆฌ์ž„. ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ๋” ์ด์ƒ ์ƒ์Šน ๋™๋ ฅ ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋จผ์ € ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ. 4. 30๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋‹จ ํ•œ ํ•ด๋„ ์†์‹ค ์—†์ด ์—ฐํ‰๊ท  30% ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ๋‚ธ ๊ทธ์˜ ์ฒ ํ•™์€ ์ด ์›์น™ ์œ„์— ์„œ ์žˆ์Œ. ๊ฐ€์„ค์ด ํ‹€๋ ธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จ๋˜๋ฉด ๋งค์ž…๊ฐ€์™€ ๋ฌด๊ด€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ์ •๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ณธ์ „ ๋Œ์•„์˜ค๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์  ํ•จ์ •์„ ์ฒ ์ €ํžˆ ๊ธˆ๊ธฐ์‹œํ•จ. ์†์ ˆ์€ ์ž๋ณธ์„ ์ง€ํ‚ค๋Š” ํ–‰์œ„๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋‹ค์Œ ๊ธฐํšŒ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ „๋žต์œผ๋กœ ๋ด„. 5. 2025๋…„ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ํ–‰๋™์ด ์ด ์›์น™์„ ์ฆ๋ช…ํ•จ. ํŒ”๋ž€ํ‹ฐ์–ด๊ฐ€ 3๋…„๊ฐ„ 1500% ํญ๋“ฑํ–ˆ์–ด๋„ ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜์—์ด์…˜์ด ๊ทน๋„๋กœ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜์ž ์ „๋Ÿ‰ ๋งค๋„ํ•จ. ์ข‹์€ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ผ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ๋” ์ด์ƒ ์ข‹์€ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ ๊ฒƒ์ž„. 6. 2025๋…„ ๋ง~2026๋…„ ์ดˆ์—๋„ ํ…Œํฌ ์ฃผ์‹ ์ „๋ฐ˜์„ ๋น„์ค‘ ์ถ•์†Œํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ฐฉ์–ด์  ํฌ์ง€์…˜ ์ทจํ•จ. ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ ์ˆœํ™˜์ฃผ์™€ ๋น„์‹ผ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ฃผ ์ค„์ด๊ณ  ์งˆ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒ€์ฆ๋œ ์ข…๋ชฉ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์„  ๊ฒƒ์ž„. ์‹œ์žฅ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ๊ณผ ์—ฐ์ค€ ์ •์ฑ…์„ ๋Š˜ ์ตœ์šฐ์„  ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ ๋ณด๋Š” ๋งคํฌ๋กœ ์‹œ๊ฐ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ ํŒ๋‹จ์ž„. 7. ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ๋Š” "์ˆ˜์ต์ด ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์—ฐ์ค€์ด ์›€์ง์ธ๋‹ค"๊ณ  ๋งํ•จ. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์•„๋ฌด๋ฆฌ ์‹ค์ ์ด ์ข‹์•„๋„ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ์ด ์ค„์–ด๋“œ๋Š” ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜์‘์ด ์•ฝํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์ด๋ฏธ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ ์ถ•์†Œ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž„. ์ด ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•˜๋ฉด ํฐ ์†์‹ค๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง. 8. ์ด ์›์น™์€ ์—ญ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ์ž‘๋™ํ•จ. ๋‚˜์œ ๋‰ด์Šค์—๋„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ ๋น ์ง€๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฑด ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์‹ ํ˜ธ์ž„. ์•…์žฌ๋ฅผ ์†Œํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ ๋„ ๋ฒ„ํ‹ฐ๋Š” ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋งค์ˆ˜ ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฑฐ์ด๊ณ , ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ข…๋ชฉ์— ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ์˜๋ฏธ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ์ง„์ž…ํ•จ. 9. ๋งŽ์€ ์• ๋„๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์ด ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ๋†“์น˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์น˜์—๋งŒ ์ง‘์ฐฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž„. EPS, ๋งค์ถœ, ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ข‹์•„๋„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•จ. ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ๋Š” ๋ถ„์„์ด ๋งž์•„๋„ ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ๋™์˜ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ํ‹€๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ด„. ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์˜ณ๊ณ  ์ž์‹ ์ด ํ‹€๋ ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒธ์†ํ•จ์ด 30๋…„ ์ˆ˜์ต์˜ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์ž„. 10. 2026๋…„ ์ง€๊ธˆ ํˆฌ์ž์ž๊ฐ€ ์ƒˆ๊ธธ ๊ตํ›ˆ์€ ๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•จ. ํ˜ธ์žฌ ๋ฐœํ‘œ ํ›„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜์‘์„ ๋ƒ‰์ •ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ณด๋Š” ์Šต๊ด€์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•จ. ์‹ค์  ๋ฐœํ‘œ, ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ๋‰ด์Šค, ์‹ ์‚ฌ์—… ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์ดํ›„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ๋ฆ„์ด ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์นœ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ๋ณด๋‚ด๋Š” ๋งค๋„ ์‹ ํ˜ธ์ž„. ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•œ "๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ๋ชจ๋ฅด๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค"์ด๋ž€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ž„.
"๋ชจ๋“  ์†Œ์‹์ด ์ข‹์€๋ฐ๋„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์ง„ํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๋งค๋„ํ•˜์„ธ์š” -- ์ด๋Š” ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€๋“ค์ด ๋ชจ๋ฅด๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค." โ€” ์Šคํƒ ๋ฆฌ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ์ผ„๋ฐ€๋Ÿฌ
8
153
9
449
59,828
์˜ˆ์ „๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์™œ "๋‹ฌ"์— ์ง‘์ฐฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑธ๊นŒ? ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์›Œ์„œ๋„ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๋‹ฌ์„ ์ง€๋ฐฐํ•˜๋ฉด ์ด๋ก ์ƒ "๋ฌดํ•œ๋Œ€์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€"์˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์—ด๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ”๋กœ, "ํ—ฌ๋ฅจ3" ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1. ๋‹ฌ์€ ํƒœ์–‘ํ’์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ์–ต ๋…„๋™์•ˆ ์Œ“์ธ "ํ—ฌ๋ฅจ3"๊ฐ€ ํ’๋ถ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2. ํ—ฌ๋ฅจ3 1ํ†ค = ์„ํƒ„ ์•ฝ 2000๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 3. ํ—ฌ๋ฅจ3 1ํ†ค๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ = 200์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋‹ฌ ๋งค์žฅ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋Š” ์ฒœ๋ฌธํ•™์ ์ธ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ด๋ก ์ƒ ์ธ๋ฅ˜์ „์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ๋…„์€ ์“ธ๋งŒํผ ๋งŽ์€ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋‹ฌ์— ๋ฌปํ˜€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฆ‰, ๋‹ฌ์„ ๋จผ์ € ์„ ์ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ํŒจ๊ถŒ์„ ์žก๊ฒŒ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11
12
2
68
9,626
ํฅ๋ฏธ์ง„์ง„ํ•œ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ๋ฆฌ์›Œ๋“œ ๋“ฑ์„ ํš๋“ํ•˜์„ธ์š”! lite.tiktok.com/t/ZS9RfwscgWโ€ฆ
$SEC | 260313 ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, 2028๋…„ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๋Œ€๋น„ 1. ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž DS(๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด)๋ถ€๋ฌธ ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„๊ณผ ์‚ฌ์—…์ง€์›์‹ค์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์‹œํ™ฉ์ด 2028๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐ˜์ „๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ด๋ฏธ ์—ผ๋‘์— ๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ด‰๋ฐœ๋œ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ดˆํ˜ธํ™ฉ์ด 1~2๋…„ ์ •๋„ ์ง€์†๋œ ๋’ค ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ถˆํ™ฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๊ฐ€ ๋‚ด๋ถ€์—์„œ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉ ๋…ผ์˜๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง. 2. AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž ์—ดํ’์ด ๋ถˆ๋ฉด์„œ HBM๊ณผ D๋žจ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํžˆ ๋Š˜์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ •์ž‘ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ˜ธํ™ฉ์ด ์˜๊ตฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์†๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋‚™๊ด€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Œ. ๋ถˆ๊ณผ ์ง€๋‚œํ•ด ์—ฌ๋ฆ„๊นŒ์ง€๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ด ๊ฐ™์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ํ˜ธํ™ฉ์„ ์ „ํ˜€ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ฆ์–ธ์ด ์—…๊ณ„์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๋งŒํผ, ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์‹œํ™ฉ ์˜ˆ์ธก ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ์กŒ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ด ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์˜ ๊ณ ๋ฏผ์„ ๋”์šฑ ๊นŠ๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. 3. ์ด๋ฒˆ ํ˜ธํ™ฉ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์€ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ์šฉ HBM ์ˆ˜์š” ํญ๋ฐœ์ž„. ์—”๋น„๋””์•„, AMD, ๋ธŒ๋กœ๋“œ์ปด ๋“ฑ ๋น…ํ…Œํฌ๋“ค์˜ HBM ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๋‚ด๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’๊ณ , ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์™€ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ „์ฒด D๋žจ ๋งค์ถœ์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ƒ์ด HBM์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ๋‘ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ HBM ์ƒ์‚ฐ์— ์ž์›์„ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ• ์ˆ˜๋ก ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐยทPCยท์„œ๋ฒ„์šฉ ๋ฒ”์šฉ D๋žจ์—๋Š” ํ’ˆ๊ท€ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์‹ฌํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์ž„. 4. ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋Š” 2026๋…„ HBM ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ ์•ฝ 50% ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์ถ”์ง„ ์ค‘์ด๋ฉฐ, ์˜ˆ์ƒ HBM ๋งค์ถœ์€ 24์กฐ ์›, ์ถœํ•˜๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์œจ์€ 143%์— ๋‹ฌํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์—…๊ณ„๋Š” ์ถ”์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. JP๋ชจ๊ฑด ํˆฌ์ž์ž ์ปจํผ๋Ÿฐ์Šค์—์„œ๋Š” HBM ๋งค์ถœ์„ 3๋ฐฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ฐœํ•œ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ์–ด, ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ ์ธ ์ฆ์„ค๊ณผ ๋™์‹œ์— ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ณ‘ํ–‰ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์ค‘ ๊ณผ์ œ๋ฅผ ์•ˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. 5. ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์‚ฌ๋“ค์˜ ๋™์‹œ๋‹ค๋ฐœ์  ์ฆ์„ค์ž„. ๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋ก ์€ ๋Œ€๋งŒยท์‹ฑ๊ฐ€ํฌ๋ฅดยท๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— D๋žจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ์„ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ง€๋‚œํ•ด๋ถ€ํ„ฐ HBM ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ํ™•๋ณด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์žฅ๋น„ ๋ฐœ์ฃผ๋„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•จ. ํ‚ค์˜ฅ์‹œ์•„์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ YMTC๋Š” ๋‚ธ๋“œํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ ์ชฝ์—์„œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋Œ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ ๊ตฌ์ถ•์— ํ†ต์ƒ 2๋…„์ด ์†Œ์š”๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์„ ๊ฐ์•ˆํ•˜๋ฉด, 2028๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‚ผ์„ฑยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋ก  ๋“ฑ ์ „์ฒด ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ฒด๊ธ‰์ด ํ•œ ๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์—…๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ด๋“œ๋˜๋Š” ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ์ด ๊ฒน์น˜๊ฒŒ ๋จ. 6. ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด๋Š” ํ˜ธํ™ฉ๊ธฐ์— ๋‹จํ–‰๋œ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ 2~3๋…„ ๋’ค ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ ์™„๊ณต ์‹œ์ ๊ณผ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ณผ์ž‰์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜์ „๋˜๋Š” ํŒจํ„ด์„ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•ด ์™”์Œ. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ์—…์ฒด ํ‘ธํˆฌ๋Ÿผ์˜ ๋กคํ”„ ๋ฒŒํฌ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์žฅ์€ "์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์„ค๋น„ํˆฌ์ž์•ก์˜ ๊ธ‰์ฆ์€ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋’ค๋ฐ”๋€Œ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์„ ํ–‰ ์ง€ํ‘œ"๋ผ๊ณ  ์ง€์ ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ˜„์žฌ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์ด ํ™•์•ฝํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์†Œํ™” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์‹œํ—˜๋Œ€์— ์˜ฌ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ๋„ ๋‚˜์˜ด. 7. ๋‚ธ๋“œํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ D๋žจ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ณผ์ž‰์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ „๋ง๋„ ์ œ๊ธฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. D๋žจ์€ ์‚ผ์„ฑยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋ก  3๊ฐ• ๊ณผ์  ๊ตฌ์กฐ์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ๋‚ธ๋“œ๋Š” ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ํ‚ค์˜ฅ์‹œ์•„์™€ YMTC๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฐ€์„ธํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์–ด๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋งŽ์•„์ง„ ํƒ“์ž„. ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ตœ๊ทผ ์ˆ˜๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋‚ธ๋“œ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ด ์‹ฌํ™”๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์™€ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ ์ž๋ฅผ ํ”ผํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ ์ „๋ก€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Œ. 8. ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ์‚ฌ์—…์ง€์›์‹ค์ด ์ด๋ฒˆ์— ํŠนํžˆ ์ฃผ๋ชฉ๋ฐ›๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ๋งฅ๋ฝ์—์„œ์ž„. ์‚ฌ์—…์ง€์›์‹ค์€ ์ฒ ์ €ํ•œ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฒ€์ฆ๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ธก์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์‚ฐ์ •์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์—ญํ• ์„ ๋งก๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ณผ์ž‰ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์ „์— ๊ฑธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚ด๋Š” ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ํ†ต์ œ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. AI ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ณ€๋™์ด ๋ถˆ๊ทœ์น™ํ•ด์ง€๊ณ  ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์งง์•„์ง„ ์ง€๊ธˆ, ์–ผ๋งˆ๋งŒํผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์„ค๋น„๋ฅผ ๋Š˜๋ฆด์ง€๋ฅผ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ณผ์ •์ด ๋์Œ. 9. ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ํ™”์„ฑ์‚ฌ์—…์žฅ์—์„œ 10๋‚˜๋…ธ 5์„ธ๋Œ€(1b) D๋žจ ๊ณต์ • ์ „ํ™˜์„ ๋งˆ๋ฌด๋ฆฌํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋™์‹œ์— ํ‰ํƒ ๊ณต์žฅ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ 10๋‚˜๋…ธ 6์„ธ๋Œ€(1c) D๋žจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋ณด์— ๋‚˜์„œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ •๋ถ€ ์ฃผ๋„๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„๋˜๋Š” ์šฉ์ธ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ํด๋Ÿฌ์Šคํ„ฐ 2๋‹จ๊ณ„ ํˆฌ์ž๋„ 2028๋…„์— ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์„ ํ•œ์ธต ๋” ํ™•์žฅํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ž„. ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ์ฆ์„ค์ด ์˜ˆ์ •๋Œ€๋กœ ์ง„ํ–‰๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด 2028๋…„์€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์ด ๋Œ€ํญ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์‹œ์ ์ธ ๋™์‹œ์—, AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž ์‚ฌ์ดํด์˜ ์กฐ์ • ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด ๋จ. 10. ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๊ฐ€ 2028๋…„ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ์ค€๋น„ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ๋ณด์ˆ˜์  ๊ฒฝ์˜์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์‹คํŒจ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ์˜์ง€์˜ ํ‘œํ˜„์ž„. 2021~2023๋…„ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋‹ค์šดํ„ด ๋‹น์‹œ ์ˆ˜์กฐ ์› ๋‹จ์œ„์˜ ์ ์ž๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•œ ๊ธฐ์–ต์ด ์ƒ์ƒํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ, ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ์Šˆํผ์‚ฌ์ดํด์— ํŽธ์Šนํ•ด ๋ฌด๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฆ์„ค์— ๋‚˜์„œ๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฐฑ์—… ํ”Œ๋žœ์„ ๊ตฌ์ฒดํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ํˆฌ์ž์™€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์˜ ์œ ์—ฐ์„ฑ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋žต์„ ์กฐ์œจํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. AI ๊ด‘ํ’์ด ์–ธ์ œ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ด์–ด์งˆ์ง€ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹คํ•œ ์ง€๊ธˆ, ํ˜ธํ™ฉ๊ธฐ์— ๋ถˆํ™ฉ์„ ์ค€๋น„ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ญ์„ค์  ํ–‰๋ณด๊ฐ€ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ํ™”๋‘๊ฐ€ ๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ž„.
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์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ฌด์—ญ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ํŠ€์–ด ์˜ค๋ฅธ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ๋งŽ์„๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ 2026๋…„ 1~2์›” ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ด ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ธฐ์ค€ +21.8% ์ˆ˜์ž…๋„ +19.8% ๋ฌด์—ญํ‘์ž๋Š” 2136์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ +26% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ํŠนํžˆ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ด +66.5% 10๋…„ ๋งŒ์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋น ๋ฅธ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ํ‘œ๋ฉด์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ํญ๋ฐœ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ด์•„๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ณด์ž„ ๊ทผ๋ฐ ์ด ์ˆซ์ž๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ ํšŒ๋ณต ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋งŒ์€ ์•„๋‹˜ 1 ๊ธฐ์ €ํšจ๊ณผ์ž„ ์ž‘๋…„ ์ดˆ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ด ๊ฝค ์•ฝํ–ˆ์Œ ํŠนํžˆ 2025๋…„ ์ดˆ์—๋Š” ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์กฐ์ • ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ˆ˜์ถœ์ด ๋ˆŒ๋ ค ์žˆ์—ˆ์Œ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์˜ฌํ•ด ์ดˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ €๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ƒํƒœ์—์„œ ํŠ€์–ด ์˜ค๋ฅด๋Š” ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๊ฝค ํผ 2 AI ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ด AI ์„œ๋ฒ„์ž„ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ GPU๋งŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ ๋จ AI ์„œ๋ฒ„์—๋Š” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ „๋ ฅ์นฉ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์นฉ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• PCB ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์ด ์—„์ฒญ ๋งŽ์ด ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ตœ์ฒจ๋‹จ ์นฉ์€ ๋ชป ๋งŒ๋“ค์ง€๋งŒ ํ›„๊ณต์ • ์ „๋ ฅ์นฉ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• PCB ์„œ๋ฒ„ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ์ด์ชฝ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๋น„์ค‘์ด ๊ฝค ํผ ์ด๋ฒˆ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ +66%๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž ์‚ฌ์ดํด ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ๊ด€์„ธ๋ž‘ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ทœ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋•Œ๋ฆฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์ง์ ‘ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๋‚ด๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹  ASEAN ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ” ์ค‘๋™ ์ด์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋จผ์ € ๋ณด๋ƒ„ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋ฒˆ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ณด๋ฉด ASEAN ์ˆ˜์ถœ +29.4% ์œ ๋Ÿฝ +27.8% ํ•œ๊ตญ +27% ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์˜ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ์šฐํšŒ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ง ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  2024๋…„~2025๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ œ์กฐ์—…์ด ์žฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋งŽ์ด ์ค„์˜€์Œ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ฑ„์šฐ๋Š” ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„ ์ด๋•Œ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ณต์žฅ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚จ
China's global trade is rapidly accelerating: China's exports in US Dollar terms jumped +21.8% YoY between January and February 2026, the highest in at least 3 years. This marks a sharp increase from the +6.6% recorded in December. At the same time, imports rose +19.8% YoY, up from +5.7% in December. As a result, the country's trade surplus rose +26% YoY in the first two months of 2026, to $213.6 billion. The surge in exports was led by semiconductors, which soared +66.5% YoY, the fastest growth in over a decade. Exports to ASEAN jumped +29.4%, while shipments to Europe and South Korea rose +27.8% and +27%, respectively. Chip demand is fueling China's trade boom.
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18
1,990
์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ผ๋ก ๋จธ์Šคํฌ์˜ ์˜๋ฏธ์‹ฌ์žฅํ•œ ๊ธ€์ด ์˜ฌ๋ผ์™”๋‹ค ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์ธ์‹์œผ๋กœ์จ์˜ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์˜ ์žฅ์ ์€ ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ๋ผ์„œ ์ถฉ์ „๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์‹ธ๋‹ค ์œ ์ง€๋ณด์ˆ˜๋น„๊ฐ€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์•ˆ๋“ ๋‹ค ์ด๊ฑด ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ธ๋“ค์˜ ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด๊ณ  ํˆฌ์ž์ž ์ž…์žฅ์—์„œ๋Š” 1. FSD๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ ์šด์ „๋…ธ๋™์˜ ์ œ๊ฑฐ 2. ๋ณด์œ ํ•œ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ๋กœ๋ณดํƒ์‹œ, ์†Œ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๋ฌผ๋ฅ˜ ์šด์˜ 3. ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ถ”๋ก ์ปดํ“จํŒ… ๋Œ€์—ฌ 3๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ด๋‹ค ์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ 3๋ฒˆ์งธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”๋‹ค ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ถ”๋ก ์ปดํ“จํŒ… ๋Œ€์—ฌ๋Š” AI5์—์„œ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค ๊ทผ๋ฐ ์ผ๋ก ์€ AI4์—์„œ๋„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋งž๋Š” ๋ง์ด๋‹ค ์นฉ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์ด ์›”๋“ฑํžˆ ์ข‹์•„์ง€๋Š” AI5๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ• ๊ฑฐ๋ผ ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋ฆผ์žก์•„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์„ ๋ฟ์ด๋‹ค... ์‹ค์ œ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ฝœํ…์Šค AI๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š”๋ฐ์— ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ GPU์™€ ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด AI4์นฉ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ํ™œ์šฉ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์€๊ฐ€... ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ํ•™์Šต๊ณผ ์ถ”๋ก ์„ ๋™์‹œ์— ๋งŒ์กฑ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์นฉ์ด ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ AI์นฉ์ด๋‹ค. ใ…‹ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ผ๋ก ์€ ์šฐ์„  ์Šˆํผ์ฐจ์ €์˜ ์œ ํœด์ „๋ ฅ ํ™œ์šฉ์„ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค ์Šˆํผ์ฐจ์ €๋Š” ๋‹จ์ˆœ ์ถฉ์ „์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ์ „๋ ฅ๊ณต๊ธ‰์žฅ์น˜์ด๋ฉฐ ์ „๋ ฅ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ์ค‘๊ฐ„์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์ด๋‹ค ์Šˆํผ์ฐจ์ €์˜ ์ˆ˜์š”๋Š” ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ์˜ ์ถฉ์ „์ด๋‹ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ํŠนํžˆ ์‹ฌ์•ผ๋‚˜ ์ƒˆ๋ฒฝ์— ์ถฉ์ „์€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋‹ˆ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ ์€, ์ „๊ธฐ์š”๊ธˆ์ด ์ €๋ ดํ•˜๋‹ค ์ผ๋ก  ๋ง๋Œ€๋กœ ์œ ํœด์ „๋ ฅ์ด 7GW๋‚˜ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด... ์ „๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์ด ๋‚จ๋Š” ์Šˆํผ์ฐจ์ € ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ถ„์‚ฐํ˜• ์†Œ๊ทœ๋ชจAI์„ผํ„ฐ(๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ์˜ตํ‹ฐ๋จธ์Šค)๋ฅผ ๋†“๊ฒŒ๋˜๋ฉด ๋‚จ๋Š” ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•ด ๋ถ„์‚ฐ AI๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์šด์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค ์ผ๋ก ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์ด๊ฑธ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ๋‹ค ์‹คํ–‰๋ ฅ ๋ณด์†Œ ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ•˜๊ฒŒ AI๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์—ดํ’์ด ๋ถˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค ๋น…ํ…Œํฌ๋“ค์€ AIํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์ฒœ๋ฌธํ•™์ ์ธ ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค AI๊ฐ€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ์ง€ ์•„๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ž๋‚˜... ๊ทผ๋ฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์€ ์ „๋ ฅ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ทธ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ์—ด์‡ ๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋ถ€์—์„œ ์ฐพ์•˜๋‹ค ์Šˆํผ์ฐจ์ €์˜ ์œ ํœด์ „๋ ฅ์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์ด๋‹ค ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋ง‰ํžŒ๋‹ค ์ •๋ง ใ…‹ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด.... ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ๊ฐœ์ธ์ฐจ์ฃผ๋“ค์˜ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ AI์นฉ ๋Œ€์—ฌ๋„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค ์Šˆํผ์ฐจ์ €์—์„œ ์ถฉ์ „ํ•˜๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ๋””์Šคํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์—์„œ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฉ˜ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ๋œฐ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ________________ ์ถฉ์ „ํ•˜๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์—ฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ˆ˜๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์œผ์‹œ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ? ๋Œ€์—ฌ์ˆ˜์ˆ˜๋ฃŒ์ˆ˜์ต :30๋ถ„์— 10๋ถˆ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ํด๋ฆญ์„ ๋ˆŒ๋Ÿฌ์ฃผ์„ธ์š”! _________________ โ€‹ ์Šˆํผ์ฐจ์ €์—์„œ๋งŒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ใ…‹ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ๋ฅผ ์ง‘์—์„œ ํ•œ๋ฐค์ค‘์— ์™„์†์œผ๋กœ ์ถฉ์ „ํ•œ๋‹ค ํ•œ๋ฐค์ค‘์—๋Š” ๋กœ๋ณดํƒ์‹œ๋ฅผ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ด๋„ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†๋‹ค ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ฐจ์ฃผ๋“ค์€ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์—ฌํ•ด์ฃผ๋ฉด ๋œ๋‹ค ๊ทธ๋ก์œผ๋กœ ์ฐพ์•„๋ณธ ๋Œ€์—ฌ์˜ ์กฐ๊ฑด์€ 2๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ถฉ์ „์ค‘์ด์–ด์•ผํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์•ˆ์ •์ ์ธ ์™€์ดํŒŒ์ด ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ด์•ผํ•œ๋‹ค ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด ์ฐจ์ฃผ์˜ ๋™์˜๋ฅผ ์–ป์–ด ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋นŒ๋ ค์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋นŒ๋ฆฐ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋กœ AI์ž‘์—…์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ปดํ“จํŒ…์ž์›์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€๊ฐ€๋กœ ๋ณด์ƒ์„ ์ง€๊ธ‰ํ•œ๋‹ค ์ด๊ฒŒ ์ข€ ๋” ํฌ๋ฆฌํ‹ฐ์ปฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋‹ค๊ฐ€์˜ค๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋ฌด์—‡์ผ๊นŒ? ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๊ทœ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์‹ฌํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐํ”„๋ผ์ด๋ฒ„์‹œ ๊ด€๋ จ ๊ทœ์ œ๋‚˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ทœ์ œ, ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์š”๊ธˆ ๋“ฑ์ด ์ผ๋ถ€ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰๋งŒํผ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ณด์ˆ˜์ ์ธ ๊ทœ์ œ๋Š” ์—†๋‹ค ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ณณ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ถ”๋ก ๋Œ€์—ฌ๋Š” ์กฐ๊ธˆ ํž˜๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์œ ์ถœ์ด ์›Œ๋‚™ ํž˜๋“  ๊ณณ์ด๋‹ˆ๊น ใ…‹ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ถ”๋ก ๋Œ€์—ฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์•„์ง€๋ฉด ์ „๋ ฅ์—๋„ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์„ ์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ํ™œ์šฉ๋„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ์„ฑ์ด ๋Š์–ด์ง€๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์ž๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์›€์ง์ผ ์ผ์ด ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†์œผ๋‹ˆ ์ด๋˜ํ•œ ํฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์–ธ์ œ์ฏค ์‹œ์ž‘๋ ๊นŒ? ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•˜๋‹ค ์กฐ๋งŒ๊ฐ„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๋„์ž…๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ํฌ๋‹ค AI๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ง“๊ณ  ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์€ ์–ด๋งˆ์–ด๋งˆํ•˜๋‹ค ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋ฏธ ๊ฐ–์ถฐ์ง„ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ปดํ“จํŒ…์ž์›์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ทธ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ฐจ์ฃผ๋“ค์€ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ปดํ“จํŒ…๋Œ€์—ฌ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์— ๊ฐ€์ž…ํ•˜๊ณ  ์•„๋งˆ์กด์ด๋‚˜ ๋ฉ”ํƒ€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋น…ํ…Œํฌ๋‚˜ ์ปดํ“จํŒ…์ž์›์„ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•˜๋Š” ์Šคํƒ€ํŠธ์—…์— ์ปดํ“จํŒ…์ž์›์„ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ์˜ฌ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. AIํŒจ๊ถŒ์„ ํ–ฅํ•œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋„์ „์€ ๊ธด๋ฐ•ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ ˆ์‹คํ•˜๋ฉฐ AIํŒŒ์›Œ๋ฅผ ์ˆœ์‹๊ฐ„์— ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํ•ด๋ฒ•์ด ์•„๋‹Œ๊ฐ€? ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ๊ทœ์ œ๋„ ๋ฌดํ’์ง€๋Œ€์ด๋‹ค. ์•ˆ๋ , ์•ˆํ•  ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์—†๋‹ค ๋‚ด๋…„์— AI5๊ฐ€ ๋„์ž…๋˜๋ฉด ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ๋ฅผ FSD๋ฅผ ํƒ€๊ณ  ์ด๋™ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋‚จ๋Š” ์ž์›์„ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ถ”๋ก ๋„คํŠธ์›์— ๋นŒ๋ ค์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฏธ AI5๋Š” FSD๋งŒ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ์—ฌ์œ ์ž์›์ด ๋‚จ๋Š”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ผ๋ก ์ด ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ๋กœ๋ณดํƒ์‹œ๋กœ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์‹ซ์€ ์ฐจ์ฃผ๋“ค์€ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ถ”๋ก ๋„คํŠธ์›์— ๊ฐ€์ž…ํ•ด์„œ ์ปดํ“จํŒ…์ž์›์„ ๋Œ€์—ฌํ•˜๋Š” ์„ ํƒ๋„ ์ข‹์•„๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค ์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ผ๋ก ์˜ ์–ธ๊ธ‰์€ ๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ ์žˆ์–ด ํฐ ๋–จ๋ฆผ๊ณผ ํฅ๋ถ„์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๊ฐ€์™”๋‹ค ์ด๊ฒŒ....๊ทธ๋ฆผ๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ์‹คํ–‰๋ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ ๋Š” ๋ฏธ์ฒ˜ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. 2027๋…„์€ ์ •๋ง... ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋Œ€๋ฐ•์˜ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค ์‚ฌ์ด๋ฒ„์บก ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰์–‘์‚ฐ ์˜ตํ‹ฐ๋จธ์Šค ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰์–‘์‚ฐ ์„ธ๋ฏธ ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰์–‘์‚ฐ FSD ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒํ™” ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ํญ๋ฐœ์  ์„ฑ์žฅ ์ง€์† ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „๋ ฅ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ VPP ํ™œ์„ฑํ™” ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ฐจ์ฃผ์˜ ๋กœ๋ณดํƒ์‹œ ์šด์˜ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ฐจ์ฃผ์˜ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ฐธ์—ฌ ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋น„์‹ธ๋‹ค๊ณ ? ๋ฏธ์นœ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋‹ค.... ๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์‹œ์ด์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋‚˜๋„ ์‹ธ๋‹ค ์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋” ์‚ฌ์•ผ๊ฒ ๋‹ค ใ…‹ใ…‹
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์  ์Šจ ํ™ฉ์ด ๋ฐฉ๊ธˆ ์ œ์•ฝ์—…๊ณ„ ํƒ‘ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ์ฐ์—ˆ๋‹ค โ€œ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ฌ๋กœ์ง€ = ์ธ๋ฅ˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ํ˜๋ช… ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ๋  ๊ฑฐ์•ผ. ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์ด ์ด์ œ ๊ณผํ•™์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์—”์ง€๋‹ˆ์–ด๋ง์ด ๋œ๋‹ค.โ€ ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ์‹œํ–‰์ฐฉ์˜ค๋กœ ์•ฝ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€ ๋. ์ด์ œ๋Š” GPU๋กœ ์ˆ˜ํ•™์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ธ๊ฐ„ OS๋ฅผ ์—”์ง€๋‹ˆ์–ด๋ง โ†’ ์•ฝ์ด ์ปดํ“จํŒ…๋œ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ณณ์€ ์ผ๋‹จ $DNA ์™€ $Abcl ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ’Š
Jensen Huang just called the exact top of the pharmaceutical industry. Not a pivot. Not a disruption. An extinction event. Huang: โ€œWhere do I think the next amazing revolution is going to come? And this is going to be flat out one of the biggest ones ever. Thereโ€™s no question that digital biology is going to be it.โ€ The medical establishment has spent centuries playing a chaotic game of trial and error. Weโ€™re about to mathematically engineer the human operating system. Huang: โ€œFor the very first time in human history, biology has the opportunity to be engineering, not science. When something becomes engineering, not science, it becomes less sporadic and exponentially improving.โ€ Biology is no longer the dark art of random discovery. Itโ€™s a predictable, compounding execution loop. Translate the chaotic variables of chemistry into the laws of computer science and you stop waiting for accidental breakthroughs. You simply compute the cure. That line should terrify every pharmaceutical executive alive. Huang: โ€œIt can compound on the benefits of the previous years. And every researcherโ€™s contributions compound on each other.โ€ For decades, drug discovery has been an isolated, artisanal process. One lab. One team. One molecule. Years of blind iteration. The algorithm just shattered that entire bottleneck. Every failed protein fold, every successful synthetic molecule instantly trains the foundational model. Makes the next iteration mathematically smarter. Huang: โ€œWeโ€™re going to have incredible tools that bring the world of biology, which is very chaotic and constantly changing and diverse and complex, into the world of computer science. And that is going to be profound.โ€ Incumbent pharma looks at the human body and sees an unmanageable wall of variables. Engineers look at that exact same body and see raw data waiting to be compiled. No longer guessing how a molecule will react in the physical world. Running millions of zero-cost simulated iterations before a single test tube is ever touched. Rip the chaotic friction out of the physical lab and drop it directly into a massive GPU cluster? The timeline to map, edit, and optimize the biological machine doesnโ€™t shrink. It collapses.
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๐Ÿšจ THIS SHOULD NOT BE HAPPENING Google searches for โ€œcanโ€™t sell houseโ€ just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH. Higher than 2008. Higher than COVID. Higher than any point since Google started tracking the data. This signal usually appears before housing markets break: When homes stop selling, sellers panic. They start cutting prices. They start asking questions. And the first place they go is Google. Thatโ€™s what this data is capturing. People realizing their house is not moving. Now look at the macro backdrop. Mortgage rates were 2.7% in 2021. Today theyโ€™re around 6.5%. That alone nearly doubled the monthly payment for the same house. At the same time, prices never corrected. The median U.S. home is still around $415,000. Affordability is now the worst it has ever been recorded. Buyers canโ€™t buy. Sellers donโ€™t want to cut. Transactions freeze. And when housing liquidity freezes, pressure builds under the surface. We saw this movie before. In 2006, homes stopped selling long before prices collapsed. By the time the headlines arrived in 2008, the damage was already done. This data suggests we may be entering that stage. Iโ€™ve been in macro for 15 years and predicted all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years. When I EXIT the markets completely, Iโ€™ll say it here publicly, like I always do. From now on, Iโ€™ll share my moves publicly. If you want to win big, follow and turn notifications on. Many people will wish they followed me sooner.
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ํ๋ฆ„์„ ์†Œ์œ ํ•œ ์ž ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค. ์ฝ˜์„ผํŠธ์— ํ”Œ๋Ÿฌ๊ทธ๋ฅผ ๊ฝ‚๋Š” ์ˆœ๊ฐ„, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋””์„œ ์™”๋Š”์ง€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค. ๋ฌผ์ด ์ˆ˜๋„๊ผญ์ง€์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋“ฏ, ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ๊ฐ€ ์˜๊ตญ์—์„œ ์ „๋ ฅ ์†Œ๋งค๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ผ์ด์„ ์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•˜๋‹ค. ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด โ€œํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋ฅผ ์ง“๋Š”๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ์˜คํ•ดํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์‹ค์ƒ์€ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๋‹ค. ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ํŒŒ๋Š” ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€๋‹ค. ๋นต์„ ๊ตฝ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋นต ๊ฐ€๊ฒŒ๋ฅผ ์—ฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅด๋“ฏ, ์ด ๋‘˜์€ ์ „ํ˜€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ผ์ด๋‹ค. ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ๊ฑด ์ด ์กฐ์šฉํ•œ ๋ฉดํ—ˆ ํ•œ ์žฅ์ด ํ’ˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฌด๊ฒŒ๋‹ค. ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋Š” ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ์‚ฌ๋ฉด ๋ช‡ ๋…„์„ ํƒ„๋‹ค. ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ์ด ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์™€ ๊ณ ๊ฐ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋Š” ๋Š์–ด์ง„๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋งค์ผ ํ๋ฅธ๋‹ค. ๋งค๋‹ฌ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์„œ๊ฐ€ ์˜จ๋‹ค. ์ž๋™์ฐจ๊ฐ€ โ€˜๊ฑฐ๋ž˜โ€™๋ผ๋ฉด, ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” โ€˜๊ด€๊ณ„โ€™๋‹ค. ์˜๊ตญ ์ „๋ ฅ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ 92%๋ฅผ ์ƒ์œ„ 6๊ฐœ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฅ๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์—๋Š” ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ •ํ•œ ์ฒœ์žฅ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๋” ์‹ผ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํŒ”์•„์„œ๋Š” ์ด๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋‹ค. ๋Œ€์‹  ์ด๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๋ถ• ์œ„ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘, ์ฐจ๊ณ  ์•ˆ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ, ์ƒˆ๋ฒฝ์— ์ถฉ์ „๋˜๋Š” ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ. ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด๋กœ ์—ฎ์œผ๋ฉด ์ˆ˜์ฒœ ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ง‘์ด ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๋œ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€์ƒ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋ผ ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ๊ตฌ์กฐ์—์„œ, ์†Œ๋น„์ž๋Š” ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์“ฐ๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ๋˜ํŒŒ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋œ๋‹ค. ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ์˜ ์ง„์งœ ์•ผ์‹ฌ์€ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํŒŒ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์ „๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ํ๋ฅด๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹ ์ž์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฅธ๋‹ค. 7๊ฐœ์›”๊ฐ„์˜ ์‹ฌ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•œ ๋ฉดํ—ˆ ํ•œ ์žฅ. ๊ทธ ์–‡์€ ์ข…์ด ์œ„์— ์ž๋™์ฐจ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋กœ ํƒˆ๋ฐ”๊ฟˆํ•˜๋Š” ์กฐ์šฉํ•œ ํ˜๋ช…์ด ์ ํ˜€ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
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ํŠธ์œ„ํ„ฐ ๋ฌด์„ญ๋„ค์š” ํ•˜๋ฃจ๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ€๋‹คํ•˜๊ณ  ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋“ฑ์žฅํ•จใ„ทใ„ท ์ €๊ฐ™์€ ๊ตฌ๋ฉ๊ฐ€๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์–ด์บ ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ์„๊นŒ์š”ใ… ใ… 
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ด๋ž€์ „์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ์–ป์€ ๊ฒƒ ๋‹ฌ๋ŸฌํŒจ๊ถŒ=ํŒจํŠธ๋กœ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ „์Ÿ ์ง์ „์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ณ ์šฉ๋ฐ•์‚ด๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํžˆ ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐˆ ์กฐ์ง์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Œ. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ์— ์ „์Ÿ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๊ณ , ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ DXY100์„ ๋„˜๊ฒผ์Œ. ๊ณ ๋กœ ๋‹ฌ๋ŸฌํŒจ๊ถŒ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ „์Ÿ์„ ์ผ์œผ์ผฐ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•จ. ์•”ํŠผ ์œ ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน์€ ๋ถ€๋“์ดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋”ฐ๋ผ์˜ค๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ํŒจํŠธ๋กœ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ •์ƒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ํฐ ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋ผ์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•จ. ์™œ๋ƒ๋ฉด ๊ธˆ์ด ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ „์Ÿ์ž„์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ๋–ก๋ฝ์„ ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋‹ฌ๋ŸฌํŒจ๊ถŒ์˜ ์Šน์ž์ž„์„ ์ฆ๋ช…ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ. ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์ „์Ÿ์ด ์ข…๋ฃŒ๋˜๊ณ , ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์•ฝ์„ธ๋ฅผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ง‰์„ ๊ฒƒ์ธ๊ฐ€๋Š” ํŒจํŠธ๋กœ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์—์„œ ์Šคํ…Œ์ด๋ธ”์ฝ”์ธ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ์ž์—ฐ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ณผ์ •์œผ๋กœ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ. ๊ณ ๋กœ ํด๋ผ๋ฆฌํ‹ฐ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ๋„ ์ž์—ฐ์Šค๋ ˆ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ง. ์ž, ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์ค‘๋™๊ณผ ์•„์‹œ์•„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ด๋ณด๊ฒ ์Œ. ์ด๋ฒˆ์ „์Ÿ์—์„œ ์ค‘๋™์€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋‹ฌ๋ŸฌํŒจ๊ถŒ์˜ ๋ฌด์„œ์›€์„ ๋ณด์•˜๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋กœ์„œ ํ–‰๋™ํ•จ์„ ๋ณด์•˜๊ณ , ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์žฌ๋Š” ์Šคํ…Œ์ด๋ธ” ์ฝ”์ธ์ด ๋ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์•˜์Œ. ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋””๊ฐ€ ์ฝ”์ธ์— ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋„ ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด„. ๊ณง ์›์œ  ๊ฒฐ์ œ๋„ ์Šคํ…Œ์ด๋ธ” ์ฝ”์ธ์œผ๋กœ ์ง„ํ–‰๋  ๊ฒƒ. ์•„์‹œ์•„ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด, ์›์œ  ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ์ž๊ตญํ™”ํ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋–ก๋ฝํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉ๊ฒฉํ–ˆ์Œ. ๋‚ด ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์ธ ์ƒ๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ํ™˜๊ฐœ์ž…์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ด€์„ธ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•จ. ์–ด์ฐจํ”ผ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์ข‹๊ณ , ์ˆ˜์ถœ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์ด ๊ด€์„ธํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ฐ›์œผ๋ฉด ์ฆ์‹œ๋Š” ์œ ์ง€๋˜๊ณ  ๋‚™์ˆ˜ํšจ๊ณผ๋กœ ์œ ๊ฐ€์ƒ์Šน๋ถ„๋„ ์ปค๋ฒ„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„์‹œ์•„ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€(๋Œ€๋งŒ, ํ•œ๊ตญ, ์ผ๋ณธ)๋“ค์ด ๊ด€์„ธํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ฐ›์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตญ์ฑ„๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ๋„๋ก ํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋  ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Œ ์ด๊ฒƒ ์—ญ์‹œ ์Šคํ…Œ์ด๋ธ” ์ฝ”์ธ์ด ํ™œ์„ฑํ™” ๋˜๋Š” ๊ธธ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ . ์•„๋ฌดํŠผ ์ „์Ÿ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ์ฝ”์ธ์˜ ์ž…์ง€๋Š” ๋”์šฑ ๊ฐ•ํ•ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ญ์‹œ ๋”์šฑ ๊ฐ•ํ•ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ „์Ÿ์€ ์ผ๋ จ์˜ ๊ณผ์ •์ผ ๋ฟ. ๋ถˆ์žฅ ๊ฐ€์ž. ํ•จ ๊ฐ€์ž.
Dxy ๊ฐ€ 100์„ ๋„˜๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—”ํ™”์—ญ์‹œ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์ด๋‚˜ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๊ฐ•์„ธ์—ฌ์„œ USd jpy ๋Š” 159.4 ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ €๋Š” ํ™˜๊ฐœ์ž… ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ™•์‹ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ์ธํ•˜ ๋‚ด๋ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๋กœ ์‹œ์žฅ๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ชจ๋‘ ์•ˆ์ • ์‹œํ‚ฌ๊ฒƒ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํƒ€์ฝ” ๋งํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. "์ „์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์ผ์‹œ์  ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ์ธํ•˜๊ฐ€ ๋‹น์žฅ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค."
13
31
4
178
28,945
์—”๋น„๋””์•„, ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ(๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด)์˜ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์‚ฌ์ดํด์— ๋ฐœ๋ชฉ ์žกํžˆ๋‹ค | Reuters Breaking Views ์•„์ฃผ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ๋ถ„์„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ์ƒ๋‹น๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ณ ์š”. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์ €์™€ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์€ ๋งŽ์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒŒ ์žฌ๋ฐŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปจ์„ผ ๋ทฐ๊ฒ ์ฃ . ๋‚ด์šฉ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์™œ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„  ์—”๋น„๋””์•„์˜ ์–ด๋งˆ๋ฌด์‹œํ•œ ์‹ค์ ์—๋„ ์™œ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๋œจ๋œจ๋ฏธ์ง€๊ทผํ•œ๊ฐ€? ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋ช…ํ™•ํžˆ ์ž˜ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์š”์•ฝ์€ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1. ์˜ค๋Š˜ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐœํ‘œ์—์„œ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๋Š” ์นฉ ์ˆ˜์š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋งค์ถœ์ด 73% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ 680์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋‹ฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์„ผํ„ฐ ๊ตฌ์ถ• ๊ณผ์ •์—์„œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ถ€์กฑ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์„ผํ„ฐ ํ™•์žฅ์˜ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ์˜๋ฌธ์„ ์ œ๊ธฐํ•œ๋‹ค. 3. Nvidia๋Š” ๊ณ ๊ฐ์—๊ฒŒ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ์ „๊ฐ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ž์‹ ๊ฐ์„ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ์„ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค. 4. ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ˜ธํ™ฉ๊ณผ ๋ถˆํ™ฉ์˜ ๊ทน๋‹จ์„ ์™”๋‹ค๊ฐ”๋‹คํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ์ดํด์„ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์—ฌ์คฌ๊ณ , ํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋Š” 2023๋…„์— ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน ์ดํ›„ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณผ์ž‰ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์œผ๋กœ 60์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์†์‹ค์„ ์ž…์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํˆฌ์ž์ž๋“ค์€ ํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค์˜ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์—๋„ 12m fPER ๊ธฐ์ค€ 5๋ฐฐ๋ผ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜๋กœ ํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. 5. ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ๊ณ ํŽธ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด, ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ํ‰๊ฐ€์•ก์€ ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ๋” ์ˆ˜๋ ดํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋‘ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ(cycle)์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. -> ์ฆ‰, ํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ธฐ์—… ๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ ๋“ฑ AI ์นฉ์ด๋‚˜ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ, ์„œ๋ฒ„ ๋“ฑ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์—…์ข…์—์„œ(๋น„๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ๋งˆ์ €๋„!)๋„ ์‚ฌ์ดํด์ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค ๋ผ๋Š” ์ฃผ์žฅ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กญ์ง€๋งŒ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ œ ๋ทฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์‹  ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ์ž˜ ์•Œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ์ „ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์•ˆ๋  ๊บผ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
6
35
1
371
24,040
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US is 100% import dependent on 12 critical minerals. Most from #China and already restricted gallium, germanium, graphite exports. If that list grows, this chart stops being a data point and becomes a crisis timeline. #Canada sits as primary source on 11 of these #minerals. Worth remembering that context right now.
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276
46
661
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Haejo retweeted
๐Ÿšจ๋Œ€์ถฉ๊ฒฉ) ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ฝ”์ธํŒ ์‹œ์žฅ์กฐ์ž‘์ž๋กœ ์ง€๋ชฉ๋ฐ›๋Š” JaneStreet ์š”์•ฝ 1. ๊ถŒ๋„ํ˜•์˜ ํ…Œ๋ผ-๋ฃจ๋‚˜ ์ชฝ์—์„œ JaneStreet๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์žฅ ์กฐ์ž‘ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฃจ๋‚˜์‚ฌํƒœ๋ฅผ ์ผ์œผ์ผฐ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ง€๋ชฉ. 2. JaneStreet์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ด๋ชฉ์ด ์ ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ฝ”์ธํŒ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•จ 3. JaneStreet๋Š” ์›”๊ฐ€์˜ ํ€€ํŠธ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๋งˆ์ผ“๋ฉ”์ด์ปค์ด๊ณ  ์œ ๋Œ€๊ณ„ ๊ธˆ์œต์ž๋ณธ์˜ ์ง‘๊ฒฐ์ง€์ž„/ ๋ธ”๋ž™๋กETF์˜ ๋งˆ์ผ“ ์กฐ์„ฑ์ž์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•จ 4. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์•„์นจ 10์‹œ๋งŒ ๋˜๋ฉด ๊ณ ๋ฐฐ ์ˆ ์žก์•„๋†“๊ณ  ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๋คํ•‘ํ•œ ํŒจํ„ด์ด JaneStreet์ด ํ•œ ์ง“์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐํ˜€์ง 5. JaneStreet๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€์˜ ๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋ฌผ๋“ค์„ ๋‹ค ์‚ญ์ œํ–ˆ๊ณ , ๋ฒ•์›์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๊ธˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ช…๋ น๋ฐ›์Œ. 6. ๊ฐ์ชฝ๊ฐ™์ด ์‹œ์žฅ ์กฐ์ž‘์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ณ  ์ฝ”์ธ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ํ™œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ 7. 2021~2022๋…„ ๋ฒ ์–ด๋งˆ์ผ“์˜ ์›์ธ ์ œ๊ณต์ž๋กœ ๋ฐํ˜€์กŒ๊ณ  ์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ์ž‘๋…„ 10์›”10์ผ ์ฒญ์‚ฐ์‡ผ์˜ ๋ฒ”์ธ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ด์ƒˆ๋ผ๋“ค์ธ๊ฑธ๋กœ ๋ฐํ˜€์ง. 8.๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ, ์ด๋”๋ฆฌ์›€ ๋ธ”๋ž™๋ก ETF ์Šน์ธ๋˜๊ธฐ ์ „ ์‹ผ ๊ฐ’์˜ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ํ™•๋ณด ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฃจ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์Šคํ…Œ์ด๋ธ”์ฝ”์ธ ์„ ๋‘๋กœ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๋˜ ํ…Œ๋ผ-๋ฃจ๋‚˜ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ๋œจ๋ฆฐ๊ฒƒ. ์œ ๋Œ€๊ณ„ ๊ธˆ์œต ์„ธ๋ ฅ๋“ค ๋จธ๋ฆฌ์”€. 9. ํด๋ž˜๋ฆฌํ‹ฐ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ ํ†ต๊ณผ ๋˜๊ธฐ ์ „์—, 2026๋…„ 1์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ˆŒ๋Ÿฌ๋†“๋Š” ์ž‘์—… ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฒˆ์— ๊ฑธ๋ฆฐ๊ฒƒ. 10. ๋ถ„๊ธฐ๋ณ„ ์•ฝ 15์กฐ์› ์”ฉ ๋ฒŒ์–ด๋“ค์˜€๊ณ , JaneStreet์€ Ai์™€ ๊ณ ๋„์˜ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์ „, ์‹œ์žฅ์กฐ์ž‘์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ์ฝ”์ธํŒ์˜ ๋ˆ์„ ์‹น ์“ธ์–ด๊ฐ”๋˜๊ฒƒ์ž„. 11. ๋‚˜๋„ ์ „์— ์†Œ๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ๋“ค์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ํ™•์‹คํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธด ํ–ˆ๋˜ โ€œ์œ ๋Œ€์ธ ๊ธˆ์œต ์„ธ๋ ฅโ€ ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋งž์•˜๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ์ฝ”์ธํŒ์—์„œ ์กฐ์ž‘์งˆ์ด ์—†์–ด์ง€๋ฉด ๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ, S&P500์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์šฐ์ƒํ–ฅ ํ•  ๋“ฏ ํ•จ.
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"์ด๋ž€ ์••๋ฐ•ํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ธฐ๋ฆ„๊ฐ’ ์˜ค๋ฅด๋Š”๋ฐ... ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๋Š” ์™œ ๊ณ„์†ํ• ๊นŒ?" ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ข…์ข… ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ์ด๋ถ„๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋ณธ๋‹ค. ์œ ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜.... ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜์„ ์žก๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์‚ฐ์—…์„ ์‚ด๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜.... ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‹ค์ œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์˜ ๊ฒŒ์ž„์€ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ์ •๊ตํ•˜๋‹ค. ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์›์œ ๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ๋Ÿด๋‹น 50๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ดํ•˜๋กœ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๊ฒ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์„ ์–ธํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ๋™์‹œ์— ์ด๋ž€์„ ์••๋ฐ•ํ•ด ์ค‘๋™ ๊ธด์žฅ์„ ๊ณ ์กฐ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ์ดํ•ด๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฑด ๋ช…๋ฐฑํ•œ ๋ชจ์ˆœ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ƒ๊ณ  ๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌผ์–ด๋ณธ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋†“์น˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ง„์งœ ๊ฒŒ์ž„์€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ํž˜์˜ ๋ถ„๋ฐฐ์— ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์…ฐ์ผ ์‚ฐ์—…์€ ๋…ํŠนํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์†์ต๋ถ„๊ธฐ์ ์ด ๋ฐฐ๋Ÿด๋‹น 64๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‹œ์ถ”์˜ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ์€ 70๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์—์„œ ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ์œ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ 65๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฐ์—…์ด ์ƒ์กด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํ’์š”๋กญ์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์ด๋‹ค. ํ•œ ์…ฐ์ผ ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์˜ ๋ง์ด ์ƒ๊ฐ๋‚œ๋‹ค. "์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์…ฐ์ผ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ํ™ฉํ˜ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋งž์ดํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‹ค." 80%์˜ ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์ด ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ๋’ค๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋ฃจ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€, ์ด ์‚ฐ์—…์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ทจ์•ฝํ•œ ๊ท ํ˜• ์œ„์— ์„œ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค. ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ง๋กœ ์œ ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ 40๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ๋–จ์–ด๋œจ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋ฉด? ์‹œ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋…๋ฆฝ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ „๋žต์˜ ๋ณธ์งˆ์ด ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋‚œ๋‹ค. ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๊ฐ€ ์ถ”๊ตฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทน๋‹จ์  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ณ€๋™์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ง€. 60~75๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ผ๋Š” ์ข์€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐด๋“œ ์•ˆ์—์„œ์˜ ์ •๊ตํ•œ ๊ท ํ˜•์žก๊ธฐ์ธ๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์…ฐ์ผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ž๋“ค์ด ํŒŒ์‚ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๋งŒํผ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋†’๊ณ  ์†Œ๋น„์ž ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ํฌ์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๋งŒํผ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋‚ฎ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ ๋Œ€๊ตญ(์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” 90๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„ยท์ด๋ž€ 100๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ•„์š”)์„ ์••๋ฐ•ํ•  ๋งŒํผ ์ ์ ˆํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š”๋ฐ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ด๋ž€ ์ œ์žฌ์˜ ์ง„์งœ ์˜๋„๋Š” ๋ฌด์—‡์ผ๊นŒ? ์œ ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋ฐฉ์ง€๋‹ค. ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ด๋ž€ ์„์œ ๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ์ž์œ ๋กญ๊ฒŒ ํ’€๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ณผ์ž‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ์œ ๊ฐ€๋Š” 50๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์ถ”๋ฝํ•  ๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์…ฐ์ผ ์‚ฐ์—…์ด ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ง€๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ง€. ์ค‘๋™ ๊ธด์žฅ์€ ์ผ์ข…์˜ "๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„"์„ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๋‚ด์žฅ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š”๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. ์œ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋–จ์–ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” ์•ˆ์ „์žฅ์น˜์ธ ์…ˆ์ด์ง€. ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ๋ด‰์‡„ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ทน๋‹จ์  ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ์ง€ํƒฑํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ง„์งœ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ณณ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 1์›”, ํ—จ๋ฆฌ ํ—ˆ๋ธŒ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 81% ๊ธ‰๋“ฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ LNG ์ˆ˜์ถœ์€ 2025๋…„ 20% ์ด์ƒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ด์ œ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์„์œ  ์ƒ์‚ฐ์˜ 20%์— ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์„ ํ–‰์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ์œ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ, ์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค ์ˆ˜์š”๋Š” ํญ๋ฐœํ• ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์•ˆ๋ณด๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ LNG์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด์•ผ๋ง๋กœ ์ง„์งœ ์ „๋žต์  ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด๋‚ธ๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฒˆ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ง€๋Š” ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ฒซ์งธ, ํ‘œ๋ฉด์  ๋ชจ์ˆœ ๋’ค์—๋Š” ์ข…์ข… ์ •๊ตํ•œ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ˆจ์–ด์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ •์น˜๋ฅผ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ์ด๋ถ„๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๋Š” ์ˆœ๊ฐ„, ์ง„์งœ ๊ฒŒ์ž„์„ ๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฒ•์ด๋‹ค. ๋‘˜์งธ, ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์€ ๊ทน๋‹จ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ท ํ˜•์ ์„ ์ง€๋ฐฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํž˜์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฒ”์œ„์— ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์ง„์งœ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์ด๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ด ์ „๋žต์€ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2025๋…„ ๋‚ด๋‚ด ์œ ๊ฐ€๋Š” 79๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์—์„œ 63๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜์€ ๋–จ์–ด์กŒ๋‹ค. ๋™์‹œ์— ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์…ฐ์ผ ์‚ฐ์—…์€ ์ƒ์กดํ–ˆ๊ณ , LNG ์ˆ˜์ถœ์€ ๊ธ‰์ฆํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ •๊ตํ•œ ์ค„ํƒ€๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๋‹ค. ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ํ‹€์–ด์ง€๋ฉด ์ „์ฒด ๊ท ํ˜•์ด ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ์ค‘๋™ ๊ธด์žฅ์ด ํ†ต์ œ ๋ถˆ๋Šฅ์ด ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ ์นจ์ฒด๋กœ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๊ฐํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, OPEC+๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜ ๋ชปํ•œ ์›€์ง์ž„์„ ๋ณด์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์„ธ์ƒ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ๋ณต์žกํ•˜๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ ๋ณต์žก์„ฑ ์†์—, ์ง„์งœ ๊ธฐํšŒ์™€ ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์ˆจ์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค.
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