While the trend in both inbound and outbound household AGI is upward, the Outbound AGI has been consistently higher adding to the complexity of the Migration stats. ($11,400 higher on average over these 10 years)
Where is the net AGI flow for Minnesota going to and coming from since 2011 by US State over that same time-frame?
This is one metric of many, but certainly one that is concerning.
Multiple comments/articles over the past day or so stating that it is the "retirees" that need the focus with respect to Migration in/out of Minnesota.
The 65+ group has the lowest net AND % outbound migration and is 3rd for migration of net AGI... (hint: its the $100k+ earners)
IRS Migration Data 2020-2021 - Net Migration Impacts by State: AGI/Households/Individuals
Request was to show a more relative value across the states that the "map" view was lacking due to outliers (e.g. Florida)
What is missed too often in these MN to wherever migration talks is that the “news” is typically the NET change in households or individuals.
Don’t stop there!!
2000 out at 100k, and 2000 in at 75k is a ZERO net population impact BUT a loss of $50,000,000 for MN tax base!!
Looking at JUST MN to Collier County, FL, although the numbers are “small” (less than 200 net migration) those leaving MN have an average AGI of over $800k while those coming to MN from Collier are closer to $350k.
~ $85,000,000 of taxable AGI left Minnesota in one County in FL
IRS Migration to/from Colorado/Minnesota by Colorado County - Adjusted Gross Income Totals
$85,305,000 MN to CO (993 Households)
$51,775,000 CO to MN (642 Households)
$33,530,000 net loss in AGI
IRS Migration to/from Florida/Minnesota by Florida County -
Adjusted Gross Income Totals
$511,610,000 MN to FL (2,335 Households)
$73,125,000 FL to MN (642 Households)
$438,435,000 net loss in AGI to MN
Hennepin County Migration based on IRS Migration Reports 2020-2021
Where are they going?
"Who" is leaving?
Where are they coming from?
"Who" is coming?
The graphics are cool, but the data behind it is telling
I'm just diving into the available data from 2020-2021 IRS Migration Data
Here is the "net change in Households" by county for Minnesota (Hennepin's scale makes the color indicators useless)
Net Migration % are low ranging from -2.07% to 2.92% by county.
NET MIGRATION
If 2000 households leave with a 10,000 AGI and 2000 arrive with an 9,000 AGI, it's a net 0 migration, but a -$1,000,000 impact on est. taxable income.
Education Minnesota flow of $$$to EdMN PAC increased significantly in 2017, effectively doubling the flow to the MN DFL Party.
All Data from Education Minnesota forms 990, 2010 to 2020
And one more just for fun today.
If a teacher was making $50,000 in 2010 and received the same base comp increases and same retirement benefits as the President of EdMN has... they would be making over $76,000 a year today and have over $250,000 in a funded retirement account.
