So here's the napkin math on where #Metaplanet stands now: -> trading at 1.32x mNAV; i.e. nav/share is JPY447 -> $1.4B raise, will add ~12K btc at an implied 1.24x mNAV; that will result in a btc gain of ~2.4K btc or a ~12% btc yield on the transaction -> so post transaction, btc NAV will be JPY500/share, and we'll be holding ~32K btc, trading at 1.18x mNAV at a share price of JPY590.. implying a btc valuation of ~38K btc -> that's a premium of 6K btc that they need to 'earn' shareholders to justify the valuation -> that can be earned in a number of ways: a) if via equity, then assuming they continue to trade around an mNAV of 1.2x, they would need to add a total of 30K btc; b) if we expand back to 2x mMAV, it would require 12K btc to earn; c) issuing preferred shares up to 20% of their btc stack (6K btc) would immediately earn it.. anything beyond that is upside. -> IMO they are going for the no. 2 spot in 2025; so +50K btc total stack by Dec 31. And 210K by end of next year. -> so looking out to end of 2026, if they get to 210K btc via combination of prefs and equity (assuming equity raised at 1.5x mNAV and prefs up to 20% of stack), they could earn shareholders: -> via prefs: 42K btc -> via equity: 45K btc -> that would be total btc earnings of 87K btc vs the current price of 38K btc, raising the NAV to JPY1860 at a btc price of $115K -> if at that point the btc price is $180K, then NAV is JPY2,910/share -> and if they trade at 1.5x mNAV, then share price is JPY4,365; a 7.5x approximately from where we are today We can't know exactly where these numbers will land, but we can model out different scenarios. This one is a clear winner.

I've been doing some work on $DDC and have taken a position. I still have some unanswered questions which I'm hoping we'll get more transparency from management on, but @ddcnorma is as sharp as they get and after seeing their execution and targets, I felt that warranted some exposure. Currently trading at ~1.1x mNAV, here are my thoughts and some napkin math: • Used ~$109M out of $528M funding. Full drawdown should yield just under 5K BTC at current prices. To hit 10K BTC by EOY 2025, they need ~2,250 BTC/month (500/week on avg, 50% of current holdings). • I'd like to see more info on dilution (we don't have a fully diluted share count or convert terms), so, accretion rates, how the mNAV and btc yield have been calculated are unclear. • If they maintain the same pace in 2026, they could hit 37K BTC by EOY. @normachu aims for top 3 BTCTC, so +50K BTC is possible with strong execution and funding sources. • I'm not a fan of the warrants/comp package which was recently disclosed as it rewards mcap growth as opposed to share price performance. While a larger mcap boosts investability, liquidity, index inclusion, talent retention, and equity as currency.. the interests are misaligned with regards to dilution. • One of the biggest takeaways for me from @ddcnorma's recent podcast with @natbrunell was how she is looking for ways to differentiate from other BTCTCs. I think that's going to be critical going forward as more companies compete for capital to buy btc. I'm paraphrasing, but she said: "..think about how we create or amplify our differentiating factor.. one is having access to Chinese investors, and then we also think about how we can acquire bitcoin in innovative ways where we can work with massive bitcoin holders and investors to create value for each other. So we're not just buying bitcoin spot but stack in a way where we continue to bring in innovation while we're doing it." Financial innovation is exactly what set $MSTR and #Metaplanet apart from the rest.. so I am interested to hear more and see what they can do on this front. In terms of valuation and targets, you can obviously play with the levers - it's pretty straightforward. Ultimately it'll come down to available capital and execution. Below are some ranges. 2025 EOY Projections (assuming 10K BTC): • At 1x mNAV: $1B mcap (9x from now). At 1.5x mNAV: $1.5B (14x). • Share price (25-50% accretion due to dilution factor): $29-58 at current BTC prices; $58-116 if BTC doubles to $220K. 2026 EOY Projections (assuming 50K BTC): • At 1x mNAV: $5.5B mcap. At 1.5x mNAV & $220K BTC: $16.5B. • Share price (25-50% accretion): $156-234 at current BTC prices; $468-702 at 1.5x mNAV & $220K BTC. 50K btc in 16 months may seem a bit out there for a company holding 1K at the moment.. but IMO going from 0 to 10K in 6 months is far more difficult, so IF they manage to achieve their 2025 target, that would make my 2026 numbers more achievable. Of course, it will also be sentiment driven and dependent on overall flows into bitcoin. Has anyone else done in depth work on $DDC? Interested to hear views here.