Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
In the current @EJ_RES: ‘Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience’ by Mathieu Pedemonte, Hiroshi Toma, Esteban Verdugo doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaf115 @mathpedemonte @everdugo_ @RoyalEconSoc #EconTwitter
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Super interesting!
Consumers' Attention to Monetary Policy: The Importance of Having "Skin in the Game" by Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, James Mitchell, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Taylor Shiroff.
"Using a five-year survey of over 170,000 US consumers, we provide a novel direct measure of attention to monetary policy and show that the data strongly support the predictions of a rational inattention model. First, attention is incentive-driven: consumers with "skin in the game"—those planning major purchases like homes or cars—are significantly more attentive to monetary policy news. Second, attention varies systematically with interest rate volatility and news supply, exhibiting cyclical patterns around FOMC meetings. Third, marginal effects of volatility and news supply decline with "skin in the game," implying external factors primarily affect low-skin-in-the-game consumers. These findings imply that, when communication is costly and attention is endogenous, optimal central bank communications in our model target consumers who bear the largest welfare losses from information frictions. This targeted communication approach increases aggregate attention to monetary policy, leading to an amplified response of consumption to interest rate changes."
clevelandfed.org/publication…
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Hot off the press! The October 2026 issue featuring the Editor’s Choice: ‘Grants Versus Loans: The Role of Financial Aid in College Major Choice’ by Adriano De Falco, Yannick Reichlin @adridefax @ReichlinYannick @RoyalEconSoc #EconTwitter
👉bit.ly/4hJUCzm
Using a sufficient statistics approach finds that India’s Phillips curve is 10 times steeper than the US’s, due to more flexible prices and weaker macro real rigidities, from Juan Herreño, Noémie Pinardon-Touati, and Malte Thie nber.org/papers/w35581
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Forthcoming in the AER: "The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges" by Oliver Pfäuti. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
My co-authors and I have written a new Economic Commentary on “The (Re)Anchoring of US Firms’ Inflation Expectations.” Link: clefed.org/4nYbBiQ
Alex Cline, Christian Garciga, @timo_reinelt, and Rob Rich
New research finds that the anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations during the pandemic inflation surge weakened more for firms in the manufacturing sector, consistent with the sharp rise in goods-price inflation in 2021. clefed.org/4nYbBiQ
Check out our new paper on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Using new evidence, we reassess its economic impact and draw lessons that remain highly relevant in today's trade policy debate
New evidence on Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act: tariff hikes cut targeted imports sharply, with costs borne mainly by US importers, reducing welfare by about 0.2 percent of GDP, from Kris James Mitchener and @mathpedemonte nber.org/papers/w35249
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21522
The Price of Protection: Tariff Incidence and Import Collapse under the Infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff
Kris Mitchener @SantaClaraUniv, Mathieu Pedemonte @the_IDB
ow.ly/NrTA50Z33B3
#CEPR_EH #CEPR_ITRE
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Super interesting!
"Consumers’ Attention to Monetary Policy: The Importance of Having 'Skin in the Game' ", by Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, James Mitchell, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Taylor Shiroff.
"Using a five-year survey of over 170,000 US consumers, we provide the first direct measure of attention to monetary policy and show that the data strongly support the predictions of a rational inattention model. First, attention is incentive-driven: consumers with “skin in the game”—those planning major purchases like homes or cars—are significantly more attentive to monetary policy news. Second, attention varies systematically with interest rate volatility and news supply, exhibiting cyclical patterns around FOMC meetings. Third, marginal effects of volatility and news supply decline with “skin in the game,” implying external factors primarily affect low skin-in-the-game consumers. These findings imply that when communication is costly and attention is endogenous, central banks should target communication efforts toward consumers who bear the largest welfare losses from information frictions. This targeted communication approach increases aggregate attention to monetary policy, leading to an amplified response of consumption to interest rate changes."
ecb.europa.eu/press/conferen…
Constructing a novel measure of one-year-ahead exchange rate forecasts and nowcasts for non-financial firms, from Martha Elena Delgado Rojas, @juanherreno, @mahofste, and @mathpedemonte nber.org/papers/w35175
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
So happy to see my paper published at AEJ: Macro! It shows that simple autoregressive foresting rules and myopia, embedded in a New Keynesian framework, help the model match key features of consensus inflationexpectations and US macro data.
The April 2026 issue of AEJ: Macroeconomics (18, 2) is now available online. aeaweb.org/issues/841
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Gustavo de Souza and André Victor Luduvice on Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Interested in postpandemic inflation and wage growth heterogeneity? Check out our Commentary written with Anaya Truss-Williams and C. J. Walker.
As in previous ECs, we provide a GitHub repo with annotated codes: tinyurl.com/4mytktmh
More links at: avdluduvice.com/policy
Our New Economic Commentary examines postpandemic inflation and wage growth dynamics. Read clefed.org/3Wt5lCs for details.
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Forthcoming in the AER: "Managers and Public Hospital Performance" by Pablo Muñoz and Cristóbal Otero. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Monetary policy shocks affect more cities with low income per capita, both in prices and income. Just Accepted new paper by Juan Herreño Bluesky: zurl.co/5GY4o and Mathieu Pedemonte @mathpedemonte
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Why have different surveys of inflation expectations recently shown such different numbers for U.S. consumer inflation expectations?
In a new @ClevelandFed Economic Commentary with my co-authors @InaHajdini , Ph.D., Ed Knotek, @JohnCLeer, @mathpedemonte, Damjan Pfajfar and Taylor Shiroff, we provide one answer: part of the gap comes from the political makeup of the different survey samples. Inflation expectations differ sharply by party -- in April 2025, Democrats in the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC) expected inflation over 10 percentage points higher than Republicans. When we reweight surveys to also match the U.S. population’s actual party affiliation, the gaps across surveys shrink, while the average inflation expectation in the MSC is lower by about 2 percentage points for April 2025,
clevelandfed.org/people/prof…
#inflation #inflationexpectations
New paper with @InaHajdini, Saten, Samreen, and Jordan. Using an RCT, we show that firms communicate within their IO network, influencing connected firms’ expectations, uncertainty and actions. We then illustrate the relevance for shock transmission and inflation in a NK model
New Working Paper: Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms clefed.org/3J0QnAw
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
Just Accepted new paper, “Multi-establishment Firms, Pricing and the Propagation of Local Shocks: Evidence from US Retail” by Ezequiel García-Lembergman zurl.co/i4Ggq
Mathieu Pedemonte retweeted
In a revised working paper, researchers study how #MonetaryPolicy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers' inflation expectations in real time. See their findings: clefed.org/3FGzfyx




























