Ina Hajdini (@InaHajdini) profile picture

Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Views are my own.

Joined October 2020
Photo by Ina Hajdini (@InaHajdini)Photo by Ina Hajdini (@InaHajdini)Photo by Ina Hajdini (@InaHajdini)Photo by Ina Hajdini (@InaHajdini)
So happy to see my paper published at AEJ: Macro! It shows that simple autoregressive foresting rules and myopia, embedded in a New Keynesian framework, help the model match key features of consensus inflationexpectations and US macro data.
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Ina Hajdini retweeted
Albania banned religion in 1967, razing religious sites except the 6 percent listed as monuments in 1948. Where none survived, women’s employment rose more, from @RichMurphy_Econ and Shqiponja Telhaj nber.org/papers/w35933
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Super interesting! Consumers' Attention to Monetary Policy: The Importance of Having "Skin in the Game" by Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, James Mitchell, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Taylor Shiroff. "Using a five-year survey of over 170,000 US consumers, we provide a novel direct measure of attention to monetary policy and show that the data strongly support the predictions of a rational inattention model. First, attention is incentive-driven: consumers with "skin in the game"—those planning major purchases like homes or cars—are significantly more attentive to monetary policy news. Second, attention varies systematically with interest rate volatility and news supply, exhibiting cyclical patterns around FOMC meetings. Third, marginal effects of volatility and news supply decline with "skin in the game," implying external factors primarily affect low-skin-in-the-game consumers. These findings imply that, when communication is costly and attention is endogenous, optimal central bank communications in our model target consumers who bear the largest welfare losses from information frictions. This targeted communication approach increases aggregate attention to monetary policy, leading to an amplified response of consumption to interest rate changes." clevelandfed.org/publication…
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Speakers at our upcoming Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics conference with the @ecb include: Cleveland Fed president and CEO Beth Hammack, Veronica Guerrieri of @ChicagoBooth, George-Marios Angeletos of @NorthwesternU, and more. Join us online: clefed.org/4zwdKYr
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Do inflation expectations held by businesses align with those of professional forecasters? sffed.us/4pov2Cc New research finds that firms' views on inflation diverged from forecasters during the pandemic-era surge.
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My co-authors and I have written a new Economic Commentary on “The (Re)Anchoring of US Firms’ Inflation Expectations.” Link: clefed.org/4nYbBiQ Alex Cline, Christian Garciga, @timo_reinelt, and Rob Rich
New research finds that the anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations during the pandemic inflation surge weakened more for firms in the manufacturing sector, consistent with the sharp rise in goods-price inflation in 2021. clefed.org/4nYbBiQ
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Check out our new paper on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Using new evidence, we reassess its economic impact and draw lessons that remain highly relevant in today's trade policy debate
New evidence on Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act: tariff hikes cut targeted imports sharply, with costs borne mainly by US importers, reducing welfare by about 0.2 percent of GDP, from Kris James Mitchener and @mathpedemonte nber.org/papers/w35249
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Super interesting! "Consumers’ Attention to Monetary Policy: The Importance of Having 'Skin in the Game' ", by Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, James Mitchell, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Taylor Shiroff. "Using a five-year survey of over 170,000 US consumers, we provide the first direct measure of attention to monetary policy and show that the data strongly support the predictions of a rational inattention model. First, attention is incentive-driven: consumers with “skin in the game”—those planning major purchases like homes or cars—are significantly more attentive to monetary policy news. Second, attention varies systematically with interest rate volatility and news supply, exhibiting cyclical patterns around FOMC meetings. Third, marginal effects of volatility and news supply decline with “skin in the game,” implying external factors primarily affect low skin-in-the-game consumers. These findings imply that when communication is costly and attention is endogenous, central banks should target communication efforts toward consumers who bear the largest welfare losses from information frictions. This targeted communication approach increases aggregate attention to monetary policy, leading to an amplified response of consumption to interest rate changes." ecb.europa.eu/press/conferen…
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Our Economic Commentary on “Expanding the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations” is out!
CEOs’ inflation expectations have remained somewhat elevated compared to actual CPI inflation. Our latest Economic Commentary breaks down results from our Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE): clefed.org/4nm3HiO
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Call for Papers: Submit your inflation-related research for our Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2026 Conference with the @ecb. 📅 Sept 24-25, 2026 in Cleveland, OH ⏰ Deadline for papers: May 15 Details: clefed.org/4mGt7Y1
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Topics of research in our latest Inflation Research Digest: macroeconomic effects of #tariffs, evaluating #inflation forecasts of generative AI, and more. See the latest issue and subscribe: bit.ly/4nfYWYe
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Mark your calendar: May 14, 1pm ET, we’re hosting "The Case for Central Bank Independence" virtually with: Athanasios Orphanides (@MIT), Michael Bordo (@RutgersU), Ricardo Reis (@LSEnews), and Edward Nelson (@FederalReserve). Free registration: clefed.org/4mNOYNs
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Why does central bank independence matter? Join leading experts on May 14 at 1 pm ET as they discuss research on central bank independence & accountability. Register for this free, virtual event: clefed.org/4mNOYNs #CentralBanking #MonetaryPolicy
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Consider registering for our upcoming event on “The Case for Central Bank Independence.”
Mark your calendar: May 14, 1pm ET, we’re hosting "The Case for Central Bank Independence" virtually with: Athanasios Orphanides (@MIT), Michael Bordo (@RutgersU), Ricardo Reis (@LSEnews), and Edward Nelson (@FederalReserve). Free registration: clefed.org/4mNOYNs
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Just published: Cleveland Fed economist paper “Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model”, was published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics doi.org/10.1257/mac.20230054
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📣 Call for Papers – #CEBRA Annual Meeting | Session 15: Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Deadline: March 2 Our inflation sessions are always hugely popular, and we’re excited to welcome back our Partner Sponsor, the Center for Inflation Research (CFIR), @ClevelandFed, @ClevFedResearch. 📌 Session Committee: Bernardo Candia | @InaHajdini | Damjan Pfajfar | Robert Rich 👉 Submit here: cebra-events.org/submitter-d… #CEBRA26 #CallForPapers #Inflation #Macroeconomics #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #EconomicResearch
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Topics of research in our latest Inflation Research Digest: #inflation uncertainty, #tariff shock, lessons from historical #FOMC discussions, and more. See the latest issue and subscribe: bit.ly/4qgo6po
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Authors of a recent paper created a new way to measure inflation uncertainty that relies, in part, on a textual analysis of news articles. This paper is featured in our latest Inflation Research Digest: bit.ly/4qgo6po
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Topics of research in our latest Inflation Research Digest: #inflation uncertainty, #tariff shock, lessons from historical #FOMC discussions, and more. See the latest issue and subscribe: bit.ly/4qgo6po
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Thank you so much for having me! I had a great time presenting the paper and interacting with faculty and PhD students at LMU.
🔵Coming up this Wednesday! Join us on October 22 at the 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗦𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿 with @InaHajdini (@ClevelandFed ), who will present “Consumers’ Attention to Monetary Policy” 🔗 sites.google.com/view/hajdin… #ECONM
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