@macrokurd

Emerging and Submerging world. I read between the lines. * All views are strictly my own

 Surrey/UAE/Koya
Joined November 2014
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71Media
* Trump: We are negotiating with Russia regarding Iran
MacroKurd
@macrokurd11h
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By about 2 weeks time, the world will be heading in a pivotal change of direction.
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Ali Gholhaki
@aghpltOct 18
«روسیه» در مورد «پیشنهاد گذشته ایران، در زمان دبیریِ شعام شهید لاریجانی مبنی بر تهیه چارچوبی برای اورانیوم ۶۰٪» جمع‌بندی کرده و ایران و آمریکا را تا حدی همراه خود کرده است؛ ولی این حوزه از مذاکرات، ملاحظاتِ جدی‌ای دارد: ۱.سفر احتمالی لاوروف به تهران به جمع‌بندی‌های اخیر هسته‌ای میان تهران_روسیه_واشنگتن مربوط می‌باشد که در صورتِ انجام سفر وزیر خارجه روسیه به ایران، یعنی تفاهمات اولیه‌ای در این حوزه شکل گرفته است. ۲. ایران در ازای چنین اقدامی از آمریکا می‌خواهد که تمامیِ تحریم‌ها را لغو کند_برداشتنِ مرحله به مرحله تحریم ها نیز توسط تهران پیشنهاد شده_ ولی آمریکا احتمالا در نهایت «رفعِ محاصره» را انجام خواهد داد و «چوبِ آغاز جنگِ مجدد» را بالای سر کشور نگه‌ خواهد داشت؛ البته اگر بلافاصله پس از خروج اورانیوم دست به اقدام نظامی نزند. ۳. فرآیند استخراج اورانیوم ۶۰٪ ایران پیچیده خواهد بود و معلوم نیست چه مدت خارج کردن آن از زمان ببرد. ۴. روس‌ها توقع دارند ترامپ به‌خاطر وساطتِ مسکو در پرونده اختلاف ایران و آمریکا، در پرونده جنگ اوکراین، زلنسکی را وادار به پذیرش شروطِ مسکو کند. ۵. پیشنهاد اخیر روسیه درباره ۴۰۰ کیلوگرم اورانیوم ۶۰٪، مورد توجهِ یکی از رئوس تصمیم‌گیر کشور قرار گرفته است! ۶. قطر کماکان در رفتارش با ایران صادقانه عمل نمی‌کند، خصوصا بخشی که پیوست پیشنهاد اخیر روس‌هاست! ۷. آیا ایران حاضر است پیش از انتخابات آمریکا چنین امتیازی _یعنی تعامل در زمینه اورانیوم ۶۰٪_ را در اختیار تیم ترامپ قرار دهد؟! هزینه_فایده چنین اقدام مهمی بررسی شده؟! زیرا ایران پیش از «جنگ ۱۲ روزه» و «جنگ رمضان» آمادگی نسبی برای توافق را داشت ولی اسراییل و آمریکا حمله را ترجیح دادند! پی‌نوشت: حتی روسیه هم در هشدارهایی که به تهران داده، «شانسِ جنگ» را بیش از «توافق» می‌داند!
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Some tightening back in polls seems a net positive to me for Flavio. You don't want the PL voters to feel overly confident and complacent, and ensure they go out to vote. #Brazil
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Perhaps the Iranians are waiting for post Israel elections too in a week. Sweet spot = between Israel elections and US midterms xitter.cf/macrokurd/status/21077…
Seyed Abbas Araghchi@araghchiOct 18
Last time you wanted to "finish the job", Iran emerged even stronger. Want to try your luck again? Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too. Netanyahu is driving America into another war to stay out of jail, whatever the consequences for Israel—let alone POTUS.
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Fora PT! 🔥🔥🔥
Nikolas Ferreira
@nikolas_dmOct 18
A Avenida Paulista ficou pequena para tantos brasileiros querendo um novo rumo para o Brasil.
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I can not wait to see them when they find out the measures being looked at to solve France's economic problems are austerity and government spending cuts 😂
L'Humanité
@humanite_frOct 13
Greta Thunberg à Saint-Denis (93) en soutien aux lycéens : "Vous vous attendiez à quoi de la part des jeunes ? Évidemment que nous allons nous révolter, évidemment qu'on va se soulever !" ➡️ l.humanite.fr/s6Y
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We told you. Bon appétit. 🇫🇷
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She's won. I think France is going to start turning a corner. This will be the bottom
CuiBono@CuiBonoCapitalOct 18
Congratulations to Marine Le Pen on her election
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The key is always to blame Trump not the US. Masterstroke. @ZavCorin
Afshin Rattansi
@afshinrattansiOct 18
Prof. John Mearsheimer: 'We are not going to be able to bring the Iranians to their knees by adding a US aircraft carrier to the region, even if we end up with three carriers there, which is highly unlikely. It’s hard to believe that President Trump would be foolish enough to launch a land invasion, but if he does, he is not going to succeed, and it will only make his situation worse. All this is to say that we have no military option here. We have no military option today, and we are not going to have one after the midterm elections. With regard to the economic side of the equation, there is no question that the United States is inflicting massive pain on the Iranians. And if I am wrong, and they do reach the point where they feel they are about to go off a cliff, they will take everybody off that cliff with them. That would be disastrous for the international economy. It would be disastrous for President Trump, and there is no way he would be able to claim victory. You cannot bamboozle the Iranians. At this point, they are simply too smart, too knowledgeable and too experienced in dealing with the United States to allow themselves to be conned into thinking that we have the upper hand.'
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The most interesting developments of late is that most of the soundbites coming out (including from Iran side) have been skewed towards the nuclear issue.
EndGameWW3 🇺🇸
@EndGameWW3Oct 17
Update: Hegseth: Iran must quickly choose between abandoning its nuclear ambitions or facing widespread destruction.
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If turns out to be true = MBS has surrendered to US = They accept defacto UAE/Israel as the new political leader of the Middle east = Abraham Accords likely agreed in background = China links will be dismantled
Open Source Intel
@Osint613Oct 17
NEW: The UAE has agreed to re-enter the Yemen conflict, resuming payments to some government forces fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis in the south. Saudi Arabia will provide air cover for the anti-Houthi force in return, sources in Yemen said. The arrangement is the first tangible sign the Saudi-Emirati rift over Yemen's future is narrowing, driven by Houthi advances that have alarmed rival Gulf rulers. The Guardian.
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Europe wants Saudi oil to go to Europe, not China.
Al Jazeera English
@AJEnglishOct 15
The French Foreign Ministry says France has begun deploying military assets in Saudi Arabia to help protect oil facilities and energy transport. It did not disclose the details of the military support sent. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/h9glkz
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*UGANDA CENTRAL BANK RAISES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE TO 12% 225bps emergency hike....good move
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IMF week in Bangkok: Take note.... everyone is short Mexican Peso.
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The WSJ ridicules the UK over surging disability payments. "The scale of the payouts has become a scandal. No other western country has seen such a rise in disability claims." State subsidised Motability cars for 860k people is only one egregious example. wsj.com/world/uk/united-king…

The Welfare State Is Crushing Britain

The U.K.’s welfare bill has ballooned, its borrowing costs are now higher than any G-7 nation and it’s paying more for its debt than even spendthrift France.

wsj.com
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Perhaps the Houthi aggression 'aligns with US interests currently' ....
Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch
@BabakTaghvaee1Oct 12
BREAKING: The Saudi government is angry that the U.S. military is not using its air defense systems and fighter jets stationed in Saudi Arabia to protect the country, particularly the airports in Riyadh and Dammam. The U.S. Army’s Patriot PAC-3 battery in Saudi Arabia protects only Prince Sultan Air Base against Iranian threats—not Riyadh or other Saudi cities against Houthi attacks. Unlike in previous years, U.S. Air Force and Air National Guard fighter jets stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base are no longer conducting combat air patrols to intercept Houthi drones and cruise missiles over Saudi Arabia. Instead, they are patrolling the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman. This has angered Saudi Arabia, which is itself unable to use its own Patriot PAC-3 and THAAD air defense systems to protect its air bases.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
‏Saudi Arabia has been using its own Air Defense Assets (since 2015) even before the American Expeditionary Wing arrived at Prince Sultan Air Base (2019) ‏⁦ ‪en.wikipedia.org/wiki/378th_Air…‬⁩ ‏This is a video of a successful PATRIOT interception in 2016 (as an example) ‏⁦‪youtu.be/pjz-T40rzq
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Pretty much the reason Saudi is already in this mess
Ghanem Nuseibeh
@gnuseibehOct 12
Can we complain when the Saudis go to China?
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The diesel fuel most likely ends up in Europe. US works with Europe still, despite Trump's noise.
Andreas Steno Larsen
@AndreasStenoOct 10
So it’s the Art of the Deal that Trump tells Europe not to buy Russian oil, calls us stupid, and then turns around and buys Russian oil himself 12 months later? Got it… 😂
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Does no one understand the highest probability here is that the diesel never comes near the United States? Our refiners are already slammed. We are already a net exporter. We already export 10x what we import. Most likely scenario is Russia ships it to other countries
Peter Doran
@PeterBDoranOct 10
What an absolute mess, @NateSibley. When Trump instructed @SecScottBessent to greenlight Russian diesel imports without the authority to do so, he put @USTreasury and @CBP in an impossible legal bind. An @OFAC license cannot override a federal statute, because Congress took that power away from Treasury in this case. PL 117-109 enacted a blanket statutory ban on all Russian HTS Chapter 27 energy imports (including diesel) with zero administrative waiver authority. And you're spot on about CAATSA. Even if Treasury claims it can (somehow) license around it, any move significantly altering Russia policy requires a mandatory 30-day notice to Congress and a statutory freeze before taking effect. The end result? If a Russian tanker soon arrives at a U.S. port, CBP is legally barred from clearing the cargo.
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