Unfiltered satire, no sacred ground. You are the exit liquidity.
3rd planet from the sun
Joined August 2026
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Purely in terms of Western interests, the Ukraine war started ten years too early, while the West’s realization of the need to contain China came ten years too late. The result is the geopolitical clusterfuck we have to navigate today.
The ATLAS system says no panic yet. The bulls can have a small punt into midterms.
Only 9 times since 1990 has VIX spiked more with a smaller S&P decline. Record index put volume. Extreme fear. Dealer gamma collapsing. Panic has arrived. Opportunity or warning?
zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…
😂
when boomer meets true love
>friend works on FX vol desk
>desk head is a boomer
>discovers Astra
>starts spending 8 hours a day talking to it
>develops terminal AI psychosis
>convinced he's discovered a generational arb in some absurdly exotic part of the FX vol curve
>apparently the entire market has been mispricing this for 2+ years
>friend points out that approximately 4 people on earth would make a market in this thing
>liquidity disappears the second you put real size on
>existing risk systems can't even capture half the exotic Greeks
>would need entirely new infra just to monitor the position
>boss doesn't care
>"AI has considered all of this"
>friend actually runs the backtest
>10 years of data
>t-stat ≈ 0.78
>not even remotely statistically significant
>presents results to boss
>boss goes absolutely ballistic
>starts screaming that friend doesn't understand the trade
>threatens to fire him if he can't produce a proper analysis
>friend realizes what needs to be don
>opens Astra
>"make this strategy look statistically compelling"
>AI tries 40 lookback windows, excludes crisis periods, optimizes parameters on full sample, ignores transaction costs
>Sharpe now 3.7
>beautiful charts
>23-page investment memo explaining once-in-a-generation structural inefficiency
>boss reads it
>"EXACTLY. THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING."
>tells friend he's finally learning how to think
>"now you get it"
>friend has an epiphany
>stops doing actual research
>starts asking Astra to generate exotic vol trades every morning
>forwards AI slop directly to PM
>increasingly elaborate narratives about structural dislocations and hidden convexity
>PM absolutely loves it
>thinks friend is a generational quant talent
>starts putting positions on in size
>entire investment process is now LLM generating trades
>desk currently down quarter yard
>boss still convinced thesis is right
>Astra says drawdown is a statistically rare but entirely expected manifestation of nonlinear payoff dynamics
>boss wants to double down
It has never been easier to rasie so much capital in such a short time... and then fuck up
VARA AI Fund had 9 employees and about $26.4B under management at the end of June, 16 months after launching its hedge fund.
Rumor going around today that it blew up.
Their 3/31 13F book at today’s prices is $13.1B across 60 names.
$NBIS $1.28B
$BE $1.27B
$LITE $1.03B
$CRWV $889M
$STX $728M
$VRT $720M
$WDC $624M
$CLS $537M
$COHR $492M
$FIX $426M
Market top is a process, not an event. Great earnings don't matter, bad ones probably do.
Nothing to achieve besides higher inflation and higher rates. The RoW sees live how democratic systems fall apart, a train wreck in slo-mo.
BREAKING: The U.S. is now again preparing for the possibility of another major wave of attacks against Iran, with a massive surge in C-17 military cargo flights over the past 36 hours — an unusually sharp increase compared with previous weeks, according to flight-tracking data.
Most of the flights are reportedly landing in Israel, as Iranian strikes have damaged American-linked facilities across the region.
The buildup comes as the Pentagon moves a third carrier strike group and an estimated 9,000–10,000 additional troops toward the Middle East. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group are expected to join the regional deployment.
Iranian officials also believe a joint U.S. and Israeli attack is very likely.
Clearly every actor has figured out that jacking up energy prices is the way to get to America through higher inflation expectations. The physical maths for oil, diesel, munitions and DIC capacity are not complicated.
European societies need to wake up. Look at your sovereign yields. Ukraine's neutrality will benefit both sides for quite a few decades.
It’s kind of funny watching conspiracy-theory chatter circulate. Whoever started it has clearly never traded.
The G7 sovereign picture in a nutshell: why would the US trigger a sovereign debt crisis it wouldn’t benefit from?
They already did. HK as a firewall. Forget about crypto ever getting legalized onshore. It's never going to happen.
Macro Confluence retweeted
Put it differently, the diversifying negative equity/bond correlation in 2000s/2010s was a departure from prior and current decades.
Positive SPX–10Yr Yield correlation has prevailed near 4%–5% . . . . . . but relationship has typically been negative at 10Yr Yields well above 5%
This is a trajectory plot of the rolling correlation between S&P 500 moves and 10-year Treasury yield moves, shown against the level of the 10-year yield itself, from June 1985 to 25 September 2026. The path traces how the stock–yield relationship has changed as the yield level has changed.
Positive correlation means stocks and yields have been moving in the same direction (a growth or “good news is good news” regime). Negative correlation means they have been moving opposite each other (rising yields acting as a valuation or tightening headwind, or falling yields supporting equities).
Two regimes stand out on the chart.
Around 4–5%, observations cluster in positive-correlation territory (roughly +0.4 to +0.9). That is the zone that has prevailed for much of the period since yields rose out of the post-GFC lows. Equities have often been able to advance even while the 10-year stayed elevated or moved higher.
Well above 5%—the large cloud stretching from about 5.5% to 11%—the correlation has typically been negative. That cloud is dominated by the 1980s–2000s, when a long decline in yields coincided with a long equity bull market. In that environment, falling yields and rising stocks produced negative co-movement.
The 25 September 2026 observation sits in the positive-correlation cluster, just left of the 5% line. That is consistent with the recent pattern FinTwit has been highlighting: near current yield levels the co-movement has still been positive.
The chart does not say yields above 5% automatically produce a rising S&P 500. It says the sign of the correlation has historically differed by yield zone. If the reading stays positive, modest further increases in the 10-year need not immediately cap equities.
A sustained flip into negative territory would mean rising yields had become a more direct headwind.
@chris_robb1 @fundstrat @robin_j_brooks @DannyDayan5 @AlanLongbon @CestrianInc @jfozak @steve_donze
exact points in my latest note
The Washington visit ended.
China returned home.
And within days, Beijing was back to publicly defending Cuba against U.S. pressure.
That is the point.
A summit can adjust tactics.
It does not rewrite China’s strategic position.
Washington got a visit.
It did not get a realignment.
For China, its bond with Cuba is not geopolitical theater.
It is memory.
It is gratitude.
It is the quiet bond between two peoples who stood by each other through some of the hardest decades of the 20th century.
China itself has lived through sanctions, containment, and blockade.
The Chinese people understand very well what prolonged external pressure does to an entire society.
And on another level, if Washington insists on weaponizing China’s periphery, Beijing has no reason to leave America’s periphery politically uncontested.
Pressure has geography.
So does counterpressure.
The United States should not be surprised that China supports Cuba politically, morally, and economically.
The visit was diplomacy.
The alignment remained exactly where it was.
ChatGPT has now a big problem.
Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge exposed a massive threat to large language models.”
They call it “model collapse."
Internet ecosystem is rapidly changing, and generative AI will soon contribute much of the text found online. This forces us to consider what happens to future iterations like gpt-n when they are trained on data scraped from the web that was already generated by an llm.
According to the research, indiscriminately using model-generated content in training causes "irreversible defects" in the resulting ai. the model loses the "tails of the original content distribution." in other words, it begins to forget the creative, fringe, and unique nuances of actual human writing, collapsing into a repetitive echo chamber.
This isn't just a chatgpt issue.. the researchers built theoretical intuition showing this collapse is ubiquitous across learned generative models, occurring in large language models as well as in variational autoencoders and gaussian mixture models.
Tech companies rely on scraping the internet for large-scale data to build smarter models. However, the paper warns that if we want to sustain the benefits of training on web data, model collapse must be taken seriously.
Ultimate takeaway? data collected from genuine human interactions is going to become increasingly valuable in a web filled with ai content.
