링바킹(lingbaking)

Remember the frenzy when Tesla joined the S&P 500? Retail investors were treating it like a guaranteed ticket to wealth. Five years later, boring Ford and General Motors have outperformed Tesla on total return. In the long run, Valuation > Growth momentum.

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AI is disrupting almost every industry. The only true hedge is investing in and owning real-world assets. • Critical minerals • Data centers • Rare earths • Robotics • Nuclear • Drones • Energy • Space • Chips • Silver • Gold

The situations I was concerned about are becoming reality, one by one. When OTC buying demand declines, OTC selling supply eventually has to move into exchanges. Most institutional trades are very large, and to be executed, they ultimately need to go through exchanges. This process is already underway. We have recently seen more frequent cases of large amounts flowing into exchanges, and this is a clear fact. For the many expectation-driven narratives in the market to go beyond just expectations, real buying demand must be reflected in prices. So far, there are no clear signs of that. There may be short-term rebounds that create optimism, but the current market structure makes prices vulnerable to declines under selling pressure.

Did Whale 2 see my post?😅😅😅 A total of 5,000 BTC has now been deposited into Binance, and this wallet belongs to the entity I’ve been referring to as Whale 2. This is the same whale that, between October 8 and October 21 last year, sold around 11,000 BTC near the market peak through Binance, Hyperliquid, and Coinbase. I honestly expected the remaining ~20,000 BTC to be sold in the next cycle, but instead, this whale has sold another 5,000 BTC at this point. The 5,000 BTC deposit itself is not a positive sign. What concerns me more is that in the past, moves by this whale were often followed by related activity, and those periods came with high volatility. One more thing worth noting: during the 2021 cycle, this whale sold only about 33 BTC. So why is it selling so aggressively only in this cycle? That question is still open. To avoid creating unnecessary FUD, I will also share the actual deposit records from October 8 to October 21.

Bitcoin has seen a major rebound. However, at least by my standards, I still do not see clear signs or flow that suggest a trend reversal. I see this move as a technical rebound, made possible by the current market structure a market where overall interest has declined, and even a small amount of liquidity can create large price swings. In other words, this is not the time to view the market optimistically. I believe confirming a true bottom will take longer than many expect. Let me be clear: when I believe the trend has truly turned, I will say so explicitly. That naturally leads to the question: “Then why did you close your short position?” 1. I trade based on trend-following, and when I use futures, I trade monthly contracts, not perpetuals. As short-term price action becomes more complex and unstable, the market becomes much harder to handle emotionally. No matter how clear your rules are, once psychological pressure builds, you inevitably start reacting to the market instead of following it. 2. a rebound of this size suggests that the market is trying to defend certain levels. Even if further downside remains, it is less likely that the $60K level will break easily in the near term. Instead, a period of consolidation is more likely. Given that, I believed it was mentally and strategically better to step aside after closing the position and observe. When volatility increases, impatience grows. And when impatience grows, decisions often lead to regret. I did not act on emotion. I simply acted according to my rules. If I continue to see this market as a bearish cycle, I will re-enter short positions. If not, I will buy Bitcoin in the spot market.

I said, “What concerns me the most right now is this: when strong selling pressure appears, there is no clear whale buying demand to absorb it.” That was my main concern at the time. That concern has now become reality. Even in very pessimistic markets, we usually see some signs of hidden whale accumulation taking advantage of the situation. This time, those signs are missing. Buying liquidity has effectively dried up, which suggests that very few participants currently view Bitcoin positively. If that were not the case, sharp sell-offs would normally be met with buying, shown by long lower wicks forming on candles. That is not happening in the market right now. This indicates that even if a bottom eventually forms, the process is likely to take a considerable amount of time. What concerns me even more is what I observed in the $80K–$90K range. Instead of fear, there was strong confidence across the market that fear should be treated as an opportunity. To me, this made the situation feel more serious not only from a liquidity perspective, but also psychologically. By my standards, there is still nothing that suggests conditions have meaningfully changed. At this point, it appears that much more time will be needed.

When it was already difficult to respond, Bitcoin took a major hit in the $80K–$90K range. At that time, many said this was a phase meant to exhaust market participants and create doubt, arguing that since everyone was turning bearish, a rebound would come next. Investors who wanted hope and some form of reassurance were encouraged by that narrative. Then the price fell to $70K. Once again, the same explanation appeared—that this entire move was just a “fake-out.” Now the price has reached $60K. What narrative will appear at this level? Where exactly is the standard for calling something a “fake move”? Prices may keep falling, and eventually a bottom will form. When that happens, will people simply say again, “See, it was all a trap”? What is the real value of analysis if this is how it’s used? Many inexperienced investors are still clinging to these explanations because they want hope. They have not yet realized that this way of analysis is flawed. That realization is a necessary step—and it has not happened yet.

"Who led the hype, and who spoke the truth?" If this process is not a typical bearish cycle, then I honestly don’t see why analysis is even necessary. Bearish analysts have been labeled as “garbage” or “fearmongers” and repeatedly attacked. But after reaching this point with no real response or preparation, who exactly was responsible for leading things here? Even now, I can’t help but ask: who was truly misleading people? Contrary to expectations, the price fell sharply below $100,000 and eventually dropped into the $80,000–$90,000 range. Let’s assume this entire move was “a deliberate scheme by whales to deceive retail investors, create disappointment, and force them out.” Even under that assumption, there was already no practical way to respond. Then the price broke down again. This time, into the mid-$70,000 range. People pointed to Strategy(MSTR) average Bitcoin entry price and said this was “another trap,” claiming price would rise again from here. But what if it breaks down once more? Then we’re at $60,000. And again, a new explanation appears: “This is also whale manipulation. Just another shakeout.” At what point does this logic stop making sense? Can everything truly be explained as “manipulation”? If so, where is the standard? Whether it takes one year, three years, or ten, whether the drawdown is 50% or 90%, can every outcome simply be dismissed as “it was all a trap”? If that’s the case, this isn’t analysis—it’s closer to avoiding responsibility. Because regardless of what happens,the assumption is always the same: “Price will eventually go up.” Analysis built on that premise does not provide reference points or direction. It only serves as post-hoc justification for decisions that went wrong. After that, the narrative shifts. People who cling to hope turn their frustration outward and attack bearish views instead. But in reality, there was no response from the beginning. Even during the long consolidation around $90,000, most were simply holding onto one expectation: “Someone will step in and save the market.” That was all.

When the time comes, I believe I’ll be one of the most bullish traders out there. Talking about downside like this isn’t enjoyable, but from my perspective, this is how the market looks right now. Even during bull markets, I openly shared when I sold during short-term pullbacks and explained the risk of further corrections, then shifted back to a bullish view as conditions improved. Whether I was right or wrong, and regardless of criticism, I didn’t shy away from that stance. That’s because I’m not a long-term holder I’m a trader who focuses on market phases. I still don’t see this as a bull market. So I expect to take more criticism for a while. There may be short-term bounces along the way, but overall, it feels like more time is still needed.