PREMIUM USERS!!! LIQUIDATION MAPS ARE ONLINE! Currently at the airport so I'll do a better post for them tomorrow. But check them out, let us know what you think.

Our GLI stopped working as perfectly this year, for the short term, at least and i'm going to break down why. The old model thrived under a Fed led regimes. BTC tracked balance sheet expansion, repo ops, shadow banking, RRP and a few countries sprinkled in lightly, like clockwork. That broke the moment Trump returned to office and the debt burden i've spoke about previously kicked in. Since then, we’ve been running on a different kind of liquidity, one driven by Treasury and not the Fed. Helped along with the large amount of debt refinancing. Powell hasn’t pivoted to bend the knee. No rate cuts recently, no QE, no balance sheet support. So liquidity started flowing elsewhere.... through debt issuance, rollover pressure, and credit easing. And at the center of it is Bessent. Under Yellen, the Treasury used similar tactics but it was always coordinated with the Fed. What’s happening now isn’t coordinated at all. Now, the Fed’s on one path, and the Treasury’s on another. Bessent is managing historic rollover pressure alone, using short duration issuance, curve steepening, and credit conditions to keep the system liquid. That’s why the old signals (which we didn't actually use directly anyway); Fed balance sheet, M2 etc have currently lost relevance. None of them capture what actually matters in the current moment: how easily credit is flowing, how yields are adjusting, how much stress is building in the system, and where that liquidity is landing. You can see alot of this in our market stress probability on the dashboard. When it spikes, shortly after we have a spike in our new credit index. Easing the markets. The Credit Liquidity Index is a new liquidity measure, Similar to the GLI but structurally different. It now tracks credit transmission, not just monetary aggregates. Lending flows, curve structure, calibrated to reflect this Treasury led cycle and the huge debt burden. Since we made the shift, correlation with BTC has snapped back. The chart speaks for itself, the new credit-based measure started working the moment Bessent took the wheel. Pre Nov 2024, it’s messy. Post Trump, it’s pretty damn clean. It’s no coincidence. The debt burden this year is off the charts, and the Treasury has no choice but to keep liquidity moving, even if it means doing the job without Powell. Will this change back if the Fed finally starts to step in and/or powell gets replaced? Probably. In which case we will amalgamate the two index's somehow to stay ahead of the game. Until that changes, BTC is going to follow credit, not so much the Fed and the new chart will be on the dashboard soon for you all to use. I have added a picture of the pre 2025 dynamics clearly showing the change since Trump took back the office. The correlation results in this screenshot are before any lead shift rjalphadash.co.uk/ Get it on the dashboard soon TRW and RV members dm for discount codes 3 free day sign up still in place

RJ dashboard overview. Users of the dash, do me a solid and repost this. Lets create some traction! ❤️ Peeking under the hood of our RJALPHA dashboard right now, you can see the Global Liquidity Index slowly ramping up ahead of Bitcoin’s rebound. Bitcoin is trading above its “fair value” green band, a signal that momentum could slow. Implied volatility sits subdued in a calm ranging bull market state. On the regime side, both QE and rate cut probabilities are ticking higher in the last months, but neither are at threshold, feeding into a bullish macro backdrop that’s lifted BTC into a clear bull regime. Albeit not at a state where we thing the treasury and fed are going to make massive macro moves. Meanwhile liquidity efficiency keeps improving: our collateral multiplier is climbing while the MOVE index drifts lower, letting ETH and SUI outpace the pack in our dominant asset rotation. Gold’s 65‑day lead projection points to BTC testing the low $120 K’s over the coming weeks, and our VAMS models are flashing buy signals across both short and medium frames, another green light for positioning ahead of what could be the next leg up. Over in Alt League, MICRO, FXS and BONK dominate top spots but a little over heated for entry. A healthy pullback will set up a lot of spots for us to get great entries. Most major exchanges are still flagged as low risk, and top stablecoins sit comfortably at sub‑0.2 risk scores. Altogether, the charts line up for a bullish stretch across the market. Some cool bits being added to the dashboard soon. Another risk model being made will be chain safety scores for chain risk when moving funds about. Stay safe, use the dashboard rjalphadash.co.uk/ Free 3 day trail in place upon sign up.