Macro analyst. 90% serious charts and policy. 10% degen bets for the soul. Crypto Alpha Dashboard. https://xitter.cf/t.co/FSVh1wSVsu
Joined February 2013
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New month, new walkthrough of the dashboard.
We’ve packed so much more into it lately that I honestly don’t use anything else for my day-to-day analysis.
From liquidity models like the GLI and CLI, to liquidation maps, alt league, risk intel, treasury trackers and the letters page, everything you need to stay ahead is in one place.
It’s structured to cover both the serious macro side of your portfolio and the fun stuff like memes and alts, so you’re never flying blind. All of this costs less than a meal out, which is mad when you think about the edge it gives you.
We’re just getting started. Each month will bring even more tools, so I’ll be doing walkthroughs regularly. Get on the dashboard and give yourself the structure and clarity most investors are missing.
TRW and Real Vision members, DM me for your discount codes.
I honestly find deep research seriously depressing these days.
It’s one of the reasons I don’t share as much as I used to.
I’m not someone who gets depressed. My life is amazing. But whenever I really get into the depths of the economy lately, I find it genuinely difficult to stomach.
Greed, hate and poor decisions everywhere you look.
And the more AI develops, the more I think that if we ever get an I, Robot moment...
I’d struggle to blame them.
The only way this works is if rates stay below inflation.
Interest rises, the benefit disappear.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says inflation could pay down the $40 trillion US national debt "very rapidly."
Rob retweeted
BREAKING: @PrismAssets has launched the Prism L3 testnet an Arbitrum Orbit chain settling on the Robinhood Chain testnet using $PRISM as its gas token.
The sovereign L3 offers dedicated blockspace, an independent sequencer, and configurable compliance for tokenized equities, perps, and lending.
No live migration yet, but it sets up a dedicated RWA execution layer on Robinhood’s L2.
Rob retweeted
Top Gainer AI Tokens on Solana in the Last 30 Days ⚡️
ROUTER - @SolRouterAI
JTVO - @JatevoId
CODEC- @codecopenflow
DATA - @DATAHEDGEAI
LSM - @elisymlabs
ORGO - @orgo
PIE- @169Pi_ai
NC - @nodepay_ai
NATIX - @NATIXNetwork
CLAW - @clawpumptech
Rob retweeted
Router is live on iOS and Android
Beta invites just went out, so check your inbox and start testing now.
Not on the list yet? Join here solrouter.com/beta
Rob retweeted
As $Router continues to climb and you start to take notice, you may want to expand your research medium.
A good place to stay up to date on the project’s development is the community Telegram. t.me/solrouter
@SolRouterAI founder @GhostHash1 is front and center regularly answering questions and responding to feedback.
As the $Router mobile app launches, goes from beta to top Privacy Ai interface in the App Store, this will be the place to be to keep updated!!
Head over introduce yourself.
Rob retweeted
Prism is now its own blockchain.
We built our own child chain, an Orbit L3, that runs on top of Robinhood Chain.
Prism L3, an Arbitrum Orbit L3, chain ID 42063, settling to Robinhood Chain Testnet as its parent.
Over the past months we have built a large range of applications, tools, infrastructure, products, and core protocols. Running our own L3 lets us operate all of it far more efficiently and with far more control, instead of building inside the same shared infrastructure as everyone else. It also means we are no longer constrained to building every dapp within a single protocol we do not control.
Our native token $PRISM (0x20024E485c0B22b42855589700721b28320A7777) will be the gas token on Prism L3, in place of ETH.
You can add the Prism L3 testnet to your wallet here: 142.93.127.197.sslip.io/
What this gives us:
- Our own gas token: Every transaction on Prism L3 is paid in $PRISM.
- Our own sequencer: Prism controls transaction ordering on its own chain, so we no longer compete with other Robinhood protocols for block space, and we set the ordering rules.
- Dedicated block space: Our throughput is ours alone and is not slowed by congestion from other protocols.
Chain-level compliance and permissioning, which is the essential capability for a real world asset protocol.
- Execution customization, so Prism can build its own infrastructure natively and far more efficiently.
- Sovereign governance and our own choice of data availability model.
This is what takes Prism from an application to a platform, in the way Robinhood is a platform.
Prism Testnet will soon be available to public and Doc will be shared soon.
Rob retweeted
April 2025 is when I initially shared that I believed the 4 year cycle to be dead.
Did anyone get there before me?
👀👀
Debt Burden, Liquidity, and Why the 4 Year Cycle is Dead.
The idea that Bitcoin still runs purely on a 4 year cycle is outdated. It’s not 2016 anymore. Halving's don't matter anymore and the business cycle has changed.
Over the last few months digging into the US debt structure, it’s become crystal clear: where there is large refinancing, there is liquidity. Where there is liquidity, risk assets rise. It's that simple.
The chart I’m posting today shows the Treasury's current debt maturity breakdown. What jumps out - Massive refinancing not just short term, but across 1-2 years, 2-5 years, and even a meaningful load at 5-10 years. It's relentless.
Right now, 2025 alone sees the largest debt burden rollover in US history, it’s the inevitable outcome of COVID deficits, runaway fiscal spending, and an eve growing snowball of debt being handed from one administration to the next. Trump caused his own struggle this year.
This is why the old 4-year rhythm is broken.
Debt is coming due every 6 months, not every 4 years.
And every time there’s a wave of refinancing, liquidity gets released into the system to soak up that debt.
History won’t repeat exactly, but patterns rhyme and if we’re paying attention, the signal here is loud and clear: multiple liquidity waves are likely.
Yes, there will be volatility and some big DD's still. But if the debt burden is what’s driving liquidity now then risk assets and Bitcoin will continue to see major surges outside of the old "cycle" models.
Important details:
Around 33% of US Treasury debt matures within the next year which is crazy!
22% already sits in the critical 2-5 year range, where rollover waves can get chunky, this is only going to grow.
Bitcoin historically reacts around these liquidity stress points, with some lag, another signal to watch carefully in 2025.
Bottom line:
Don't rely on the 4 year cycles anymore. Look at the bigger picture.
On the new website, i'm going to be adding an extra analysis block away from the charts which will give my detailed extra analysis sheets and charts to help everyone fully understand what i'm looking at.
sign up now for 2 weeks free sub using 'signup2' as the coupon and to ensure you lock in current prices. They will be going up next week.
rjalphadash.co.uk/
Very similar to what I posted in the community yesterday and again this morning.
Credit and relative strength weakened badly last week, yen carry remains high, stress remains elevated and the regime model has now added a top tick warning..
If you weren’t already positioned for the run, I’m not sure this is where I’d be adding.
April 2025 is when I initially shared that I believed the 4 year cycle to be dead.
Did anyone get there before me?
👀👀
Debt Burden, Liquidity, and Why the 4 Year Cycle is Dead.
The idea that Bitcoin still runs purely on a 4 year cycle is outdated. It’s not 2016 anymore. Halving's don't matter anymore and the business cycle has changed.
Over the last few months digging into the US debt structure, it’s become crystal clear: where there is large refinancing, there is liquidity. Where there is liquidity, risk assets rise. It's that simple.
The chart I’m posting today shows the Treasury's current debt maturity breakdown. What jumps out - Massive refinancing not just short term, but across 1-2 years, 2-5 years, and even a meaningful load at 5-10 years. It's relentless.
Right now, 2025 alone sees the largest debt burden rollover in US history, it’s the inevitable outcome of COVID deficits, runaway fiscal spending, and an eve growing snowball of debt being handed from one administration to the next. Trump caused his own struggle this year.
This is why the old 4-year rhythm is broken.
Debt is coming due every 6 months, not every 4 years.
And every time there’s a wave of refinancing, liquidity gets released into the system to soak up that debt.
History won’t repeat exactly, but patterns rhyme and if we’re paying attention, the signal here is loud and clear: multiple liquidity waves are likely.
Yes, there will be volatility and some big DD's still. But if the debt burden is what’s driving liquidity now then risk assets and Bitcoin will continue to see major surges outside of the old "cycle" models.
Important details:
Around 33% of US Treasury debt matures within the next year which is crazy!
22% already sits in the critical 2-5 year range, where rollover waves can get chunky, this is only going to grow.
Bitcoin historically reacts around these liquidity stress points, with some lag, another signal to watch carefully in 2025.
Bottom line:
Don't rely on the 4 year cycles anymore. Look at the bigger picture.
On the new website, i'm going to be adding an extra analysis block away from the charts which will give my detailed extra analysis sheets and charts to help everyone fully understand what i'm looking at.
sign up now for 2 weeks free sub using 'signup2' as the coupon and to ensure you lock in current prices. They will be going up next week.
rjalphadash.co.uk/
Rob retweeted
will be back on MCG live on Friday talking about private AI and what’s next for solana:6SjVTj1VGwFSXn7wEjwFm77LvACeTqB7sQUebYKX8Ds5
What is inference and why does it matter for AI?
@GhostHash1 breaks it down👇
solana:6SjVTj1VGwFSXn7wEjwFm77LvACeTqB7sQUebYKX8Ds5 keeps your AI prompts private by encrypting them before they leave your device and securely processes them before they reach the AI model
• Prompts are encrypted on-device
• Data is processed in a trusted environment
• Locally hosted models handle inference
• Data stays encrypted throughout
