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『在早期,我們在網路上就做一件事情:找到同好』
那時候大家不想讀書、不想面對父母,會逃到網咖,在天堂跟陌生人練功打架,在魔力寶貝找會當兵的網婆。
我現在理解,那些老人憶當年的心境,其實就是感嘆再也回不到過去了。
noahpinion.substack.com/p/th…
我看到的是 0.2% 也有兩千萬,完全不算少。
況且世界在 chatgpt 之前就是這樣分佈的:買了 ipad 多數人也只是拿去追劇,同理,有了 LLM 多數人在做的事情也只是消費,而不是生產。
那些說自己一天做出可以取代 adobe 軟體的人,即使產生了幾十萬行程式碼,本質上跟用 sora 生幹片賺流量也是一樣的。
换句话说,如果能用上 Claude Code 和 ChatGPT 付费版,你可能就属于全球最顶尖的 0.2 % 人群。
但 Karpathy 的 0.2% 不止要会员,前沿模型 + 代码/数学 + 当饭碗用,三样都占才算数。
他今天把 4 月那条推文翻出来,说 AI 导致人与人差距的鸿沟在变宽,已经成了一个漏斗:
60 亿人几乎没碰过大模型
10–20 亿人偶尔用免费版,看到的是个有点傻的聊天机器人
2000 万人,0.2%,在代码和数学里职业化地用前沿模型,几周几个月的项目,一个 prompt 交给 agent 做完
5000 人,在实验室内部用着还没放出来的系统
漏斗为什么这么陡峭,他给了三个原因:
1. 影响随野心放大,一段话就能答完的问题,压根测不出它的上限,你得手里攥着一堆真正在乎的大难题
2. 能力是锯齿状的,强化学习吃的是可验证、数字化、值钱的环境,所以代码和数学先爆发
3. 权限,分成免费、付费、内部三档
不到一年前,Karpathy 还在编辑器里一个字符一个字符地敲代码,偶尔按一下 Tab 补全一小段,今天,Opus 5.5 能全自主执行数天的任务。
你手上那个够大的问题是什么?👇
危言聳聽賣課程是太多了,不過現在既然發生,就去利用這個環境即可,不需要因為太多工具而焦慮甚至花大錢。
順便發一下免費試用一週的 Claude Pro,我只有拿到三個名額。
claude.ai/referral/5udeGyxWZ…
經營管理、內勤調動、技人國、永住,這幾個要件大幅緊縮。
從文字上看,這些改動原則是合理的,因為原本這些制度寬鬆到被濫用,我們守法的人可能無法理解,世界上真的有人是刻意要當吸血蟲。
但這可能沒有解決真正的問題。
1/
政府では、在留外国人数の増加に伴って不安や不公平感を感じる国民の皆様がいらっしゃることに向き合い、「外国人政策」を「秩序」あるものとし、国民の皆様と外国人の双方が安全・安心に生活していけるようにするため、本年1月、『外国人の受入れ・秩序ある共生のための総合的対応策』を取りまとめ、幅広い施策に取り組んでいます。
それらの施策の中から、外国人の「在留資格」に関する取組の状況をご説明したいと思います。
<「経営・管理」の在留資格の許可基準の見直しについて>
「経営・管理」とは、貿易などの事業の経営や管理に従事することを目的とする在留資格です。
「経営・管理」については、諸外国の同様の制度に比べて、許可基準が緩く、移住目的の方法として悪用されているなどの問題が指摘されていました。
そこで、昨年10月に許可基準の見直しを行い、新たな基準に基づく厳格な審査を実施してきました。
その結果、令和8年上半期の「在留資格認定証明書交付件数」は、前年同期比90%減少(3,074件減少)となっています。
<「企業内転勤」の在留資格の審査の厳格化について>
「企業内転勤」とは、国外にある親会社の外国人職員が、国内の子会社に転勤する場合などに用いられる在留資格です。
「企業内転勤」についても、実態を欠いた悪用事例が一部で確認されていました。
そこで、本年4月から、国外・国内それぞれの事業所の存在を明らかにするための新たな資料の提出を求めるなど、厳格な審査を行うようにしました。
その結果、令和8年上半期の「在留資格認定証明書交付件数」は、前年同期比で15%減少(739件減少)し、より実態に即した運用が行われるようになっています。
<「技術・人文知識・国際業務」の在留資格の審査の厳格化について>
「技術・人文知識・国際業務」とは、日本の会社などに雇用されて、自然科学・人文科学に関する技術・専門的知識や外国語の能力などを活かして働く場合に用いられる在留資格で、システムエンジニアや、経理・財務、通訳・語学教師など、幅広い分野で利用されています。
「技術・人文知識・国際業務」についても、在留資格該当性のない活動に従事する事案が散見されるとの指摘があります。
そこで、対策として、派遣元と派遣先の双方に対し、従事させる業務についての誓約書を求めたり、言語能力の確認(CEFR・B2相当の言語能力の確認)を行うことにしたりするなど、審査の強化に取り組んでいます。
本年7月には、出入国在留管理庁の入国審査官など226名を緊急増員することとしましたので、更に取組を加速してまいります。
<「永住許可制度」の適正化について>
「永住者」とは、在留活動・在留期間の制限がなく、最も安定した法的地位として創設された在留資格であるため、特に慎重な審査を行う必要があります。
こうした位置付けを踏まえ、『永住許可に関するガイドライン』を改定することとしました。
主な改定内容は、以下の2点です。
「永住者」の在留資格を得るためには、「独立生計要件」、つまり「独立の生計を営むに足りる資産又は技能を有すること」が必要となりますが、実際には、「永住者」の在留資格を得たにもかかわらず、独立の生計を営むことができないという事例が多くありました。
そこで、「独立生計要件」について、
・世帯年収の基準を「日本人世帯の平均年収を上回る水準」に見直すとともに、
・将来の年金見込み額を新たに考慮することとする予定です。
また、いわゆる「国益要件」、つまり「その者の永住が日本国の利益に合すると認められること」についても、
・一定水準の日本語能力を有しているか、
・我が国の制度・ルールなどへの理解が一定水準以上に達しているか
といった事項を新たに考慮することとする予定です。
『新ガイドライン』は、パブリック・コメントで寄せられた意見を踏まえて検討を行った上で、10月1日に改定を予定しています。
Super long post ahead:
This resonated with a lot of people. We are all facing similar kinds of experiences in our work environments. Many suggested that I take it easy, just use LLMs to finish whatever task I have, get the paycheck, and be happy. I understand that sentiment. However, there comes a point in your life when you need to find meaning in your work.
It gets boring to do the same thing again and again. Your brain needs stimulation. You will start finding it somewhere if not in your work. But what if you do not have the time? How will you find your purpose then?
Quitting is not an option. You need that money. There are bills to be paid. So then, the option is to just hide your face in the dirt and do what is asked of you. Nobody will be there to listen to you. And why would they do that? The end goal of any business is to become profitable. And how will you do that? Ship faster, see what gets more users onboarded, retain them. Repeat.
There is no concept of soul in this process. There is no one who will care about your satisfaction. Just you. Find it somewhere.
Code in your free time.
You do not have free time.
Find it.
There is no other option. You want to feel something? Build it in your free time.
I agree with a lot of people here saying we will just be meat proxies. Tbh, I do not understand the term exactly, but I think I get the sentiment.
But on the other hand, what I worry about is that a lot of engineering domains will start lacking intellectuals.
Think about it. If you are a kid now, in school or college, all you need to do is ask LLMs to finish your homework. Teachers are aware of it, and there is nothing they can do. If I were a kid, LLMs would be my greatest friend. They would be my replacement for the hatred I had for assignments.
The art of learning will eventually disappear. Who will be there to teach, and who will be there to learn?
Eventually, we will have a generation of kids who have no drive and curiosity. But I am pretty sure that if we steer this technology in the right direction, the opposite could also be possible. I just do not see that happening anytime soon.
I digressed a bit, but what I am trying to say is that software engineers used to take a lot of pride in their work. There is still a possibility for that, but an MBA can now come to you and say, "Hey, I could have shipped that too. What have you done here?"
Are we ready to face that question?
I think not.
That is ego. That will eventually go away as we adapt. Some of us are already adapting. There is resistance, and there always will be. I think it is a natural progression during any technical revolution. Yes, it is a big leap in technology. We cannot deny it any longer.
What I am interested to know is how this will translate to other domains.
Software can be automated. Let us assume that.
What happens to math, physics, biology, medicine, mechanical engineering, aeronautics, and so on? Will they face a similar fate?
I do not have an answer to that.
Okay, now coming back to the topic. What do you think will happen to devs?
Since most of us, judging from the response to this post, are using LLMs to do whatever management asks, what will happen to us?
If models become super good, which I think they eventually will with the pace at which we are moving forward, will all of us eventually go out of a job?
I again do not have an answer to this.
Can someone focused solely on engineering survive?
Can someone focused solely on design survive?
What about someone focused just on PM?
Can an individual do the job of all three?
Maybe eventually they will have to.
So how do I see the future of software engineering now?
I think I need to reference the replies I have received on this post.
It is bleak.
At least the future of what we think of as traditional software engineering is bleak.
I am not even sure whether whatever comes next can be considered software engineering or not.
On a side note, I never even liked labeling building software as engineering. When I was a kid, I always associated engineering with making things like bridges, cars, rockets, etc.
So how will you find the hard problems to solve when you are not getting any time in your day apart from talking to Claude?
I do not know where we will find that.
Maybe I need to pick up a new domain.
Hardware?
Very interesting, but I am too dumb to learn about it now. And most probably, it is not going to pay my bills.
So not that.
And there is nothing else that comes to my mind apart from these two.
I think I am doomed.
I know I am just rambling in this post. Not a lot of it will make sense, but I need to just get it out.
Now, regarding this post, this is a once-in-a-lifetime reach I got on this one. I do not think this will happen again for a long time. Almost everyone on the tech side of X saw this and shared their opinions.
I am grateful for this.
This single post almost tripled my followers overnight. I am thankful to all of you for sharing your thoughts on this matter.
I would like you all to post more on X. Share your thoughts. It can be about anything.
Maybe this will give your brain the stimulation that coding at work is not going to.
Start today.
Post anything.
Try to be original.
I could just keep on writing. I like writing. I like writing long posts, even if nobody is going to read them.
Maybe that is what I like the most about X. Just sharing my thoughts and seeing what others say about them.
Interesting era that we all live in. I could say anything, and hundreds of people are going to see it.
Okay, what else?
Let us talk about life now.
I think, as I mentioned, the soul-sucking nature of AI is something that bothers me.
I would have loved AI to solve cancer.
It took my grandparents from me, and if it solves that, I do not think anybody would be as happy as me.
I need it to create more medicine, help humans live longer, and improve our quality of life.
Software automation is fine, but most of our world can live without our CRUD apps.
What it cannot live without is new medicine and cures for new diseases.
I hope AI gets so advanced that any disease can be cured using personalized medicine.
Not sure if I am making sense.
Anyways, this technology has had the most impact on my life. And this will continue to happen.
I hope that we humans are a part of this industry shift. I do not want to be sidelined. I want to cherish new technology.
Do you know how it would have felt to live during the space race?
I want to feel something similar.
The difference is that the space race was not threatening anyone's livelihood.
On the other hand, this time, all we hear from the AI industry is that they are going to make us jobless.
I hate that about them.
So negative.
It does not have to be like that.
I am tired of typing this now. I will share my thoughts sometime later.
Yes, I do have many thoughts.
That is all I do.
I think about anything.
At least no one is automating my consciousness yet.
I am done with this shit. It is over. The state of engineering right now is horrible. It has been half a month since I started a new role at a big company. Nobody knows anything here. The specs, code, tests, PRDs, tickets, resolution of those tickets, reports, etc., everything is made by Claude Code. Nobody on my team likes this. They are being forced to ship as much as they can. I have heard multiple times from higher management that pushing code is not a bottleneck, so why are we slow? People are working 12 to 13 hours a day just to press enter. Nobody is reading anything. Humans in corporate are doing nothing on their own. Everyone, literally everyone, from an L1 to an L7 engineer here is doing the same thing. Talk to Claude. There is no sense of victory. Nobody is resolving bugs. In reality, nobody is thinking anymore. Everything is done by LLMs. It is so soul-sucking. I would not mind it, to be honest, if we were at least given the time to check out the code and see what is going where. But no, the goal is to just ship. No matter what happens.











