
fmrly @coatuemgmt, @generalcatalyst
SF, CA
Joined March 2009
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Most interesting thing I've read in a while
theintrinsicperspective.com/…
Kyle Doherty retweeted
Yesterday, the founder of a well-known, successful company called me to reference check two people he was considering for a senior role. He wasn’t looking for reassurance. He was genuinely trying to understand them, including anything that might cause him to reconsider either hire. He’s called me before about other hires, including people who wouldn’t even report directly to him. He doesn’t delegate this to others. He calls himself. I'm sure that kind of rigor is part of why his company has been so successful.
The call stuck with me because it happens so rarely. Many people I’ve worked closely with have gone on to senior roles, including C-level positions, at other companies. It’s shocking how infrequently I get called. These are among the most consequential decisions a founder makes, yet companies routinely make them without talking to people who actually worked closely with the candidate.
Part of the problem is timing. Most reference checks happen after the hiring manager has effectively decided to make the hire. You like the candidate, you’ve invested weeks in the process, and you’re under pressure to fill the role. You want the process to be over, so you’re looking for validation rather than truth. That defeats the purpose of doing reference checks.
A real reference check should attempt to disconfirm what you already believe. What am I missing? Where is this person weaker than they appear? What will I wish I had known six months after they start? You aren’t trying to build the case for the hire. You’re trying to find the flaw in the case while you can still do something about it.
I’ve learned a few rules. Start by putting limited weight on the references the candidate gives you. Nobody hands you the name of the boss or colleague who thought they were a disaster. The references that matter most are blind references, so find former bosses, peers, direct reports, and customers who aren’t on the candidate’s list. Each has seen the person from a different angle.
You also have to adjust for human nature. Most people don’t like being brutally honest when they know their words could affect someone’s career. They inflate praise and soften criticism, so my rule of thumb is to discount the positive by 3x and amplify the negative by 3x. That gets you closer to a balanced view.
When someone says, "He's a great leader, although some very good people struggled working for him," the second half of that sentence matters far more than the first. Who struggled, why, and where are those people now? When someone says, "She surrounds herself with people she trusts," ask whether those are the best people for the job or simply people who always agree with her. Hesitations, qualifications, and carefully chosen words often tell you more than the compliments.
Ask questions that make vague answers difficult. What would their direct reports say is the hardest part of working for them? What feedback did you give them repeatedly? What was their biggest blind spot? How do they behave when things are going badly? Tell me about a serious conflict they had and how they handled it. If this hire fails, what is the most likely reason? Would you hire them again?
My favorite is a forced ranking. Of everyone you’ve worked with in a similar role, where does this person rank? Top 1%? Top 10%? Top 25%? Then ask why. Adjectives can be misleading. Rankings force people to make an actual judgment and explain it.
I’ve hired many exceptional people and made some bad hires. The most important lesson I’ve learned is that the goal of a reference check isn’t to prove you made the right decision. It’s to discover why you might be making the wrong one while you can still change it.
Well done primer on an opaque area. Would require piecing things together from many sources to get this understanding
power2026.ai/
Travis is an apex predator put on ice in 2017 and only recently reactivated from cryogenic slumber.
Standards for male behavior have moved so far that he's actively perplexed by it.
Our current ecology was last home to performative frat bros nearly a decade ago.
So when Travis tells TBPN he jet skis to work, and Jordi + John ask whether he does his best thinking on the jet ski, he pauses.
You can visibly see him get confused, with an expression like "What the fuck are you guys talking about?"
Then he quite literally voices his frustration: "No guys...it's a fucking notch on the belt. Who else do you know who jet skis to work? Nobody. I'm the guy."
Even the literal technology brothers are incapable of fathoming a man who does things just for the bit.
Travis in 2026 is like the T-rex from Jurassic Park 2 who finds himself in modern day San Diego being like, yo, what the FUCK is this place?
And then just stomps everything in sight.
xitter.cf/tbpn/status/2081039302…
.@travisk's commute takes 5 minutes on a jet ski going 70 mph on Lake Austin.
"Who else do you know is jet skiing to work? Nobody. I'm the guy."
praying is anti-agency.
getting your capital back is agency. buying back your company so you own more and control more is agency.
this is about agency.
Kyle Doherty retweeted
The lack of seasons in SF is actually evil. Months slide past and nothing changes— perhaps different trees bloom, some new flowers pop up in the park, and the sun sets earlier— but nothing really seems to change. It's fun at first... you can go for a jog outside every day without worry, you can wear the same types of outfits week after week (pants, with a nice shirt and light jacket). But as time goes by it's eerie. Your life just races bay, with no visual or physical punctuation. There's no leaves on the ground, no crisp fall days, no scorching summer nights where you can wear shorts and a t shirt until midnight, no thunderstorms. It's spring. It's purgatory. Forever and ever.
#3 is why venture / growth tech portfolio construction will always be wildly sub-optimal
When asked about thier biggest investment mistake, nearly every great VC I talk to on the pod says a variation of 1 of 3 things
1) Not going all in on companies that clearly shows signs of being special.
2) Passing on great founders / companies due to valuation feeling a tad high
3) Letting partnership politics influence conviction (not referring to healthy debates)
In vc, the cost of ommision is higher than the cost of commision
A fantastic framing for the seeds of narrative creation. Not all of these seem to fully fit the definition, but all good regardless
billiondollarpdf.com/
Kyle Doherty retweeted
From @chudson on why it's potentially more dangerous to sit out of a bubble than to participate:
"That's my lesson from 2021. Because it’s not as if the people who were sober and restrained during 2021 have gotten a lot of credit from their LPs for having not participated in the circus.
So I’m like, is that really what modern venture capital is about today? If there’s a speculative frenzy, the rational thing to do, if your goal is to remain a venture capitalist, might be to participate in the frenzy. Even if you have deep skepticism about the final outcome.
You need to remain relevant. You need to remain in business and be able to raise capital. And to do that, your firm has to be relevant. And feel like you get the message.
And if that's true, that leads you in a really different set of directions than it would if you’re just like, “Hey, the people who go crazy and lose a bunch of money on bad things will be punished. And the punishment will be you will not raise another fund.”
I don’t really think it works that way."
New @ThePeelPod with @chudson
Charles started @PrecursorVC in 2015 to help create pre-seed as a category.
We talk about how pre-seed investing has never been harder, why sitting out of bubbles can be more dangerous than joining, how Principals at Precursor get real money to make their own bets, + urgency and “the last $250k effect”.
Full episode here + links below
0:00 Is Pre-Seed dead?
4:15 Do round names matter anymore?
12:27 Multi-stage signaling risk doesn’t exist
16:42 Smart LP’s love multi-stage funds
22:03 Is the traditional Seed model broken?
26:31 Velocity of capital deployment drives all incentives
30:30 How to compete with megafunds at early stage
34:24 Megafunds have Seed funds in a vice-grip
38:34 “The best Series A’s are all expensive"
39:33 Are we doing 2021 all over again?
41:53 It’s safer to participate in bubbles than sit out
47:35 Price you pay is everything
50:22 The system incentivizes an addiction to consensus
55:22 High valuation + high CapEx grows AUM
59:56 How Precursor actually invests today
1:01:32 Precursor’s Principal investor program
1:05:56 Deciding when to selling your winners
1:10:53 Raising as a pre-consensus founder
1:12:39 What Charles looks for in founders
1:17:20 What it’s actually like to start a fund
1:20:56 Misconceptions of first-time fund managers
1:26:22 300+ LP meetings to raise Precursor Fund 1
1:29:24 The single change to the pitch that raised his fund
1:31:54 Precursor’s evolution over time
1:34:57 The second desert of venture capital
1:37:34 The last $250k effect
Kyle Doherty retweeted
You'll see a lot of doctors come out "against" this kind of broad screening system. They can even get quite agitated about it. This resistance stems from a well-established clinical consensus: traditional population-level imaging fails to improve health outcomes because false positives and invasive follow-ups do more harm than good. But this view suffers from an obvious blind spot. Existing studies rely on static data and completely ignore time-series imaging. And time-series is ignored because we haven't been able to afford to do high frequency imaging at population scale. Clearly, time series is going to be immensely more valuable than a single image. If you drop costs, value can go from 0 -> 1. On a more fundamental level, the argument against screening rests on an obviously false precept "More information is bad" -- just clearly untrue. More information better, you just have to interpret it correctly.
did you make it into the superintelligences? are you in the weights? intheweights.com
there's something wrong with the system or process in that a few months ago spacex shares were very liquid (albeit via controlled processes). now long time shareholders need to wait months to see liquidity
Tommy Bahama appears to have a monopoly share of beach umbrellas and chairs in Hawaii (likely via Costco)


























