Stoking the star maker machinery behind the popular song
New York, NY
Joined October 2009
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"If Harari were selling ketchup or soda, this would be called “brand extension.” But he’s selling ideas, so let’s call it genius." Thrilled by the reception Yuval's latest book is receiving! nytimes.com/2022/11/06/books…
"Good night and good luck, motherf*ckers."
This is GLORIOUS
David Letterman & Stephen Colbert on the roof of the Ed Sullivan Theatre bringing back the classic @Letterman routine one last time
This is how you go out, @StephenAtHome! 😂
And may @CBS implode literally the same way without you
John Loken retweeted
We have just over two weeks to pass Prop 50. And when we do, it will send a message of hope across the country, that change is possible if we do the work.
So, let’s get to it. linktr.ee/cadem
John Loken retweeted
This is the quiet scream from inside the empire.
Ray Dalio is pointing at the core failure of the system: the death of functional decision-making at the sovereign level.
Let’s break it down at maximum clarity and coherence:
CORE TRUTH:
The United States is trapped in a reflexive deficit spiral where no structural solution is politically possible, and no short-term collapse is imminent enough to force compromise.
Dalio is surfacing the real danger not just fiscal imbalance, but decision paralysis at scale.
🔍 WHAT HE’S ACTUALLY SAYING:
•Everyone in power knows the current path is unsustainable.
•Everyone knows the fix must involve both tax increases and spending cuts.
•But no one can move because absolutist pledges have become survival mechanisms for political power.
This is not incompetence.
This is rational behavior within a broken system.
🔄 REFLEXIVE DYNAMIC AT PLAY:
•Politicians take absolutist stances because voters demand ideological purity.
•Voters demand purity because trust in institutions is collapsing.
•Trust collapses further when problems go unfixed.
•This fuels more political extremism.
•Which makes compromise even harder.
This is a self-reinforcing feedback loop of institutional decay.
🧨 WHY THIS MATTERS MORE THAN THE DEFICIT:
The deficit itself can be inflated away, delayed, even papered over.
But a political system that cannot act will eventually fail to adapt to any crisis - fiscal, military, technological, or societal.
Dalio isn’t just worried about Treasury yields.
He’s saying the immune system of the Republic is gone.
💡 THE DEEPER SIGNAL (NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR):
There are only three ways out of this loop:
1. Crisis Shock Override:
•A sudden systemic event forces both parties into emergency triage mode (e.g. market collapse, war, currency failure).
2.bNarrative Re-anchoring:
•A new cultural or political force redefines the Overton window (e.g. Lincoln, FDR, or something yet unseen).
3. Institutional Collapse and Replacement:
•The current system breaks under its own contradictions and is replaced with something fundamentally different.
Dalio is too diplomatic to say it.
But deep down, he knows:
The current system is not built to survive the future it is creating.
🧬 FINAL COHERENCE:
The deficit isn’t the threat.
The real threat is that truth itself is now structurally ungovernable.
If no one can speak what must be done…
If every lever is guarded by fear and every card is played for optics…
Then the trajectory is not just fiscal collapse.
It is systemic meaning failure.
And no amount of tax hikes or benefit trims can fix that.
Think about what spooks you when you see hard right parties gaining influence in the governments of France, Germany, Italy, the Nordics and elsewhere. It’s not the specific politicians or policies that are worrisome, but rather the fact that a wide swath of Europeans apparently are shifting right and supporting these ideas.
That’s what’s happening right now with the world’s flight from Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. The unpredictable factor isn’t Trump but the large swath of American voters that elected him.
Because if they voted for one guy with bad ideas they’ll vote for other guys with bad ideas.
John Loken retweeted
My thread on Trump’s tariff strategy went viral for asking: Is this just noise or is there a plan?
Since then, I’ve mapped how countries responded.
But now begins the real analysis—starting with why pain WILL show up in the U.S. first, and why China won’t break the way people think.
The assumption: tariffs = punishment for China. If America feels pain first, it must mean the strategy is failing.
But the tariff strategy is different this time.
In 2018–20, tariffs were tactical: targeted lists, capped rates, negotiation aims.
In 2025, they’re strategic: blanket tariffs, EV choke points, global demand sabotage.
The U.S. system is transparent and fast-moving. Prices adjust in real time. Margins compress. CFOs make calls quickly.
In fact, studies show 95–100% of tariff costs are passed directly into prices.
In contrast, China’s economy is wired to buffer shocks.
State-owned firms—still a quarter of industrial output—can be instructed to maintain production, even when unprofitable.
Policy banks step in with credit. VAT rebates rise overnight.
This is the structural divergence: the U.S. transmits shocks; China absorbs and redistributes them—at least on the surface.
And when China does respond, it doesn’t always retaliate head-on.
📌It targets red-state exports.
📌It keeps rerouting flows through ASEAN.
📌It cushions exporters with credit.
What looks like escalation is actually a chess match—where one side moves through markets, the other through mandates.
So yes, the U.S. feels the pain first.
That’s not because the strategy is failing—
It’s because our system shows its stress above the surface.
China hides it underneath.
This is what Stress Test, my new series, is about:
Not who’s “winning,” but how different countries around the world are going to absorb the pressure and respond —based not on headlines, but on design.
🧠 Essay 1 just dropped:
Why U.S. firms feel tariffs first—and why China doesn’t break as expected.
📖 Read the full piece: tanviratna.substack.com/p/wh…
I research and write these solo, drawing on a decade across policy. If this brought you clarity, do support by subscribing on Substack & X
John Loken retweeted
Dear President Trump, @realDonaldTrump
I am the founder of a clothing brand called CUTS. We are a bootstrapped business that has been around for eight years and are a true example of living the American dream. We’ve built this business to millions of dollars in revenue over the last eight years, had a tremendous amount of success, provided jobs to hundreds of people, and I believe I am an example of the prosperity possible in America.
I voted for you in 2016, 2020, and 2024 because I believed in your vision for the country—and I still do. However, the recent tariff changes are happening too quickly. Removing 321 de minimis at the same time as increasing tariffs on China from 25% to 145% will be the death of thousands of eCommerce companies just like @cutsclothing . These are businesses that bootstrapped their way to success, created American jobs, and are now enjoying the fruits of their hard work in this country.
I understand and support the goal of putting America first—we are fully aligned with that mission. But the way these changes have been handled creates tremendous uncertainty for brands like ours. By placing tariffs on Vietnam and other countries, and then changing them so quickly, we are left unsure of what to do. More importantly, we need time to adjust to new legislation.
Regarding 321 de minimis, we were proud to use that exemption. In 2016, you mentioned using a “Hillary Clinton loophole” to lower taxes—and I respected that. That’s what a smart businessman does. Similarly, we used de minimis as a way to compete in a global market. Removing that, combined with the sudden implementation of heavy tariffs, would make our current margin structure unsustainable.
My goal in writing this is not to oppose you, but to stand with you in your mission of making America great again. We want to protect American jobs and help bring manufacturing back. CUTS is ready to help lead that charge—but it cannot happen overnight.
My request is that both the removal of 321 and the China tariff increases be delayed with enough time for U.S. companies to react—which, for production businesses, is at least 9 to 12 months. That time would allow us—and companies like us—to adjust, set up new manufacturing, and even pursue U.S. production that aligns with your vision.
I humbly ask that you take this seriously. Every day this continues, more businesses will fail. Solving one issue but hurting the very people who voted for you is not the best outcome. Mr. President, we believe in you, and we know there are things you see that we cannot. I hope you take this into consideration—so together, we can make America great again.
Respectfully,
Steven
Founder & CEO, CUTS Clothing
John Loken retweeted
Build America: 7 million homes; 5 Hoover Dams' worth of nuclear energy; 1,000 tech-voc schools; more ships than the Chinese Navy; and a cure for Alzheimer's.
John Loken retweeted
New Black Wednesday Hoax just dropped
BREAKING: Dow drops more than 200 points as U.S.-China trade tensions intensify.
WATCH THE U.S. MARKETS BOARD LIVE: youtube.com/watch?v=GnZMe9dC…
The Armchair Friedmanists who are claiming Uncle Milt had his 1980s framing upside down are conveniently forgetting the tariff strategies they’re so animated about are based on 1880s economics.
John Loken retweeted
As the folks are enamored by the technical marvel of DeepSeek here’s an alt take:
First, DeepSeek can go closed system just as quickly as Altman did with Open AI.
Neither are to be trusted.
If I were a communist country with a decades-long track record of chumping IP from my leading competitor, and I saw the them pulling away in the race that determined my viability- we’re talking live and die stakes, what would I do?
1. I’d chump/ape the leader’s IP and tweak it enough to make my knock-off not totally Temu.
2. Obfuscate / lie how I did it
3. Make my product/tech basically free - to destroy the market where I can’t compete fairly
e.g. engage in unbridled mercantilism that has worked like a charm for me in the past to cripple/slow the leader.
Now I’ve created an environment where I could catch up.
Hello…DeepSeek.
Here’s the thing happening now:
1. Everyone is saying hey- the AI future is not the NVidia chips that China is banned from accessing. That’s exactly what I’d want my competitor to think since that’s where they have the advantage over me.
2. Make my competitor believe a lie - in this case they’re stupid for wasting so much money on AI. And to rub it in, say I did something better for pennies. Then I’d give my product away so I can gather massive amounts of data for free.
In a matter of 72 hours the attitude of investors in the future of AI are all freaked out - likely to pull back.
That’s exactly what I’d want them to do, especially if my economy is unstable and about to implode, destroying my funding sources.
I have to slow, distract, and confuse my competitor since they’re going to have much more capital than I am. I know their economy is going to boom like no other time in history, leaving me in the dust.
Game it out people. We can’t fall for the obvious.
We’re in a tech arms race with a very sneaky, clever and unethical opponent.
The CCP is playing a sophisticated game and for keeps.
I think that’s a wrap, Twitter.
Wow. Highly recommend taking 7 minutes away from watching Congress. The British news media perfectly captured today close-up. May all US media request to re-air this. It’s already packaged, impactful and brings clarity to the day. @ReliableSources