Pinned Tweet
.@shayne_coplan @Polymarket
$74M of volume handed to ten wallets who treat your oracle like their personal fleshlight
your "mstr-sold-btc-by-may-31" market is resolving NO.
the 8-K filed june 1 confirms mstr sold 32 btc between may 26-31. on-chain shows ~411 btc moved to coinbase prime on may 29, first outflow in 3.5 years per @arkham. june 30 and december 31 sub-markets both at 100% YES because the sale fucking happened in the window
your rules name three resolution sources: MSTR filings, on-chain data, consensus reporting. all three confirm sale in window. resolving NO requires every voter to check which way the whales pissed and aim the same direction
then you dropped a banner saying "confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify" and quietly rewrote the question from "did mstr sell btc by may 31" to "did a press release land by may 31." you ran the first one for 35 days, ate $74M of volume on it, and resolved the second one. clarification dragged wherever the bag needed it to go
mstr files weekly on mondays. every trader bidding YES knew the 8K was coming. smart money front ran the disclosure exactly as the rules were written. then a discord circle jerk of UMA bagholders reframed event timing as announcement timing mid dispute, and every voter who could read the room said yes sir to avoid getting slashed
easy fix: when primary resolution source confirms event in window, market resolves on the event. if you want announcement timing markets, write the fucking words "publicly confirmed by [deadline]" into the rules. you override sports payouts when umpires fuck up. all it takes is a junior engineer and a weekend to ship the same logic. you have a bunch of UMA whales on speed dial and shipping the fix means admitting that out loud
ngmi
a month ago this was ravecon [b]ender. a house party on nov 4, mid-devcon.
today it's afterhours mixer, and 1,250+ people have applied for 180 seats. (luma.com/1cnairat)
here's what changed 🧵
the bet was that a smaller room pulls a better crowd. 1,250+ applications says it did. founders, funds, builders, traders.
@bitget is anchoring. @NEARProtocol and @KamuiFinance are in as partners.
kaulboy retweeted
Part 2 of my Cursor teardown. What I found, and what I’d fix.
The free plan I signed up to on Cursor: Grok 4.6, locked.
When I hit my limit, the chat said “you’re out, Pro $20”. My usage page said “50% used, ₹649”. Same moment, two answers.
Last weekend nearly 9 in 10 upcoming community events were Grok. Today it’s 8 in 10.
Upcoming events in India, Cursor’s 3rd-biggest market: still zero.
Fix 1: make Grok the cheap option, not the locked one. When Microsoft announced the GitHub deal it promised devs “the programming languages, tools and operating systems of their choice.” GitHub kept that, and went from 28M devs to 100M+.
Fix 2: send the volunteers where the sales team is going. Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai. Measure it on free users who move to Start.
If your parent company has a good product, make it the easy pick, not the only pick.
The question I can’t answer: how many Cursor users ever switch away from the default model? If most, the lock is costing sign-ups. If almost none, I’m wrong.
Full teardown in the replies.
kaulboy retweeted
Planning an event or activation around Devcon Mumbai? Happy to help, even last minute!
Our team brings experience from @IBWofficial, @DubaiFinTechSum, @FSF_Dubai & activations with top brands like @binance, @Aptos, @coinbase, @tether @bitget @0xPolygon
We gotchu! :)
kaulboy retweeted
It's been about 6 months since I left Aptos and it took me a while to come back here.
In that time I did a few hackathons at the intersection of AI and web3, spent a lot of time figuring out what's next, started a boardgame content page on Instagram (theboardgameboulevard), finished Hyrox doubles (my biggest flex now), played on FOMO and lost money :P
Mostly I kept thinking about how to keep up with how fast tech is moving right now. Where I landed is sticking to what I'm actually good at, which is programs and getting builders in the door and keeping them there. So I started digging into how AI companies acquire and keep their users, and I'm going to write it up.
One company a week, how they grow, where it leaks, and what I'd change. Still doing web3 too, so DM me about that anytime.
First one is Instinct, the assistant everyone's been talking about. Reportedly raising at a valuation of $10B.
Tell me where I'm wrong, especially if you're building at one of these companies.
kaulboy retweeted
we are still hiring for our @touchgrass_pod clipping business -
looking to hire more clippers i.e. horizontal clipping focused for X similar to the clips on @clipsofcrypto
dm me!
kaulboy retweeted
hiring -
looking for a @solana native intern to help me run @clipsofsolana
dm me
kaulboy retweeted
200+ registrations in. Auto approvals are now closed
The next window is invite only (for 21+)
Devs, Founders, VCs & creators can still register. We review every application manually, and if you’re a good fit, we’ll get you in.
See u underground
luma.com/1cnairat
kaulboy retweeted
.@shayne_coplan @Polymarket
$74M of volume handed to ten wallets who treat your oracle like their personal fleshlight
your "mstr-sold-btc-by-may-31" market is resolving NO.
the 8-K filed june 1 confirms mstr sold 32 btc between may 26-31. on-chain shows ~411 btc moved to coinbase prime on may 29, first outflow in 3.5 years per @arkham. june 30 and december 31 sub-markets both at 100% YES because the sale fucking happened in the window
your rules name three resolution sources: MSTR filings, on-chain data, consensus reporting. all three confirm sale in window. resolving NO requires every voter to check which way the whales pissed and aim the same direction
then you dropped a banner saying "confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify" and quietly rewrote the question from "did mstr sell btc by may 31" to "did a press release land by may 31." you ran the first one for 35 days, ate $74M of volume on it, and resolved the second one. clarification dragged wherever the bag needed it to go
mstr files weekly on mondays. every trader bidding YES knew the 8K was coming. smart money front ran the disclosure exactly as the rules were written. then a discord circle jerk of UMA bagholders reframed event timing as announcement timing mid dispute, and every voter who could read the room said yes sir to avoid getting slashed
easy fix: when primary resolution source confirms event in window, market resolves on the event. if you want announcement timing markets, write the fucking words "publicly confirmed by [deadline]" into the rules. you override sports payouts when umpires fuck up. all it takes is a junior engineer and a weekend to ship the same logic. you have a bunch of UMA whales on speed dial and shipping the fix means admitting that out loud
ngmi
kaulboy retweeted
The downfall of polymarket.
The team resolved the “microstrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31” market to No.
The problem is they literally sold Bitcoin in May.
It’s not even up for debate. The filing says they sold Bitcoin. That’s a fact.
If a tree fell in the forest on May 31st, but someone didn't discover it until June 1st, then Polymarket would resolve that the tree fell on June 1st
If users can’t trust markets to be resolved based on what actually happened, the whole product falls apart.
Pretty hard to justify using a prediction market when objective facts apparently don’t matter.
This is basically free advertising Hip4 hyperliquid
Hyperliquid is just superior
kaulboy retweeted
all you have to do is start using @everydaydotapp
