3i Group $III.L down -4% today. The read-across probably is the Carrefour $CA.PA Q3 call of yesterday, where management cut 2026 guidance because of the riots in France. Here’s what they said:
“Around 50 of our stores were hit on day 1. Many were looted and the damage is considerable. No doubt that we are among the main retailers in France, the most affected by this crisis [...] For some of them, it’s sometimes almost 0, sometimes 2 or 3.”
"We estimate the maximum financial risk at around EUR 200 million on recurring operating income [...] If it is [0.15%] of increase, it would be EUR 80 million. A little bit of the losses will be covered by insurance, but we think most of the impact will hit our P&L."
"Trading was stronger over the summer, then we saw a slowdown in September. Food sales rose by +1.6% LFL, whilst non-food sales decreased by -2.2% LFL. Discretionary consumption, typically nonfood is probably more at risk when consumer sentiment stays weaker."
A couple things matter for Action.
First, its store footprint is concentrated outside of city centers where the bulk of the civil unrest occurred, limiting direct physical risk.
Second, because the disruptions began in October, any financial impact will manifest solely in Q4, the most crucial period of the year for seasonal retail sales. Crucially, Action's weaker H2 2025 baseline creates a lower threshold for comparison, potentially softening the blow of negative surprises.
Finally, while Carrefour's non-food deceleration serves as a signal, it shouldn't be applied directly to Action. Non-food is an side category for traditional grocers like Carrefour, whereas Action’s pure-play discount model leaves it uniquely positioned to capture incremental volume as constrained consumers trade down.
The latest top 10 holdings of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust ($SMT.L):
- SpaceX ($SPCX) is down to 15% from its 25% peak, indicating further share sales.
- Moderna ($MRNA) is now top 5 and, with +16% MTD, should be closing in on the top 3.
- Anthropic and Zipline were marked up significantly in September into major top 10 holdings.
A great display of the strength of investing in both public and private markets.
Voor de Nederlandstalige:
Ik deelde ook kort mijn visie op de toenemende hoeveelheid vermogensbelastingen. In België de Meerwaardebelasting, maar met Box 3 in Nederland kunnen we er ook wat van.
Neem een voorbeeld aan Zweden, waar beleggen juist wordt gestimuleerd.
'In België wordt beleggen niet gestimuleerd'
tijd.be/video/1572.html
Joep retweeted
Het hoge woord is er uit: ik ben een boek aan het schrijven over familieholdings en serial acquirers!
Getiteld: De Zijspanbelegger.
Voor wie alvast wat meer wil weten en op de hoogte wil blijven: schrijf je in via onderstaande link!
Www.zijspanbelegger.com/
Het was een waar genoegen om te gast te zijn @elvermo! Hartelijk dank voor de uitnodiging, spreken over de beurs (en holdings in het bijzonder) is altijd iets dat ik graag doe.
Tresor Capital News is now fully available in English! 🇬🇧
Until now, our articles were only available in English on the website via a translation option. We now have a complete English website, and you can receive our newsletter and future communications in English as well.
Switch via the link in this week's newsletter, or sign in and choose the English edition in your account settings.
tresorcapitalnieuws.nl/en/
We recently received feedback regarding the pop-ups on our news site. Instead of simply removing them, I redesigned the entire site. Whoops. Please review this new version and let me know if you notice any bugs or inefficiencies. Today’s featured companies: Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust ($SMT.L) and Exor ($EXO.AS).
Looking ahead, we plan to roll out an English email notification system soon, with support for additional languages down the line.
tresorcapitalnieuws.nl
"Temu and Shein shoppers face another EU charge from November" - euperspectives.eu/2026/09/te…
We already saw that the July charges had a significant impact on the competitors (picture below), now this fee will be increased again in November. Positive for 3i Group's ($III.L) Action, uncertain how long the advantage lasts though.
Here it is, the deep-dive about our chat with Mr. Baksh. It is a member only publication, but don’t worry, subscribing is and always will be free! $TOI.V $CSU.TO
tresorcapitalnieuws.nl/deep-…
Seems like there is one obvious buyer for this, coincidentally it is also the Prime Minister’s ex-employer…👀 $BAM $BN
We just spoke with Jamal Baksh (CFO of Constellation Software/Topicus).
He explained to us that Daan Dijkhuizen is not leaving Topicus $TOI.V , but his responsibilities just extend on top of it with his new role at CSU. Quite an important nuance that might have been misunderstood by some people.
We (might) release a little bit more information tomorrow in our newsletter:
tresorcapitalnieuws.nl
With ~75% of the buyback completed, dividend inflows set to grow for years (great breakdown by @massivemoats below) and the share price still trading at a discount to NAV.
What is stopping management from announcing a 250m buyback extension at the upcoming private equity capital markets seminar? $III.L
3i Group $III.L announced this morning that it acquired an additional ~0.3% stake in Peer Holding I B.V., the parent company of Action.
For this, 3i Group will issue ~3 million shares. This will result in a ~0.3% dilution of the total share capital, which will increase to over 1,028 million shares.
Consequently, 3i Group's stake in Action will increase further, from 65.4% to 67.5%, including the acquisition of an additional ~1.8% stake announced on August 27, 2026. Together, these ~0.3% and ~1.8% stake purchases form part of a single equity transaction of approximately 2.1%, which costs 3i Group approximately £765 million in equity issuance.
In my view, this transaction is highly value-creating for 3i Group and its shareholders. In my valuation model, this 2.1% stake will generate €634 million in cumulative dividends through 2035 and represent a value of around €2.2 billion at that year-end, assuming a total enterprise value for Action of €104 billion on December 31, 2035. Based on my projections, the IRR for this transaction would amount to a 15.6% CAGR over the 2027-2035 period.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
Disclosure: $III.L currently has a weighting of 40% in my portfolio.
h/t @joepify
3i Group ($III.L) has issued ~3.4 million new shares to acquire an additional 0.3% stake in Action. The transaction brings 3i's total ownership in Action to 67.5%, with total shares outstanding now standing at 1,028 million.
3i Group ($III.L) is buying ~1.8% more of Action by issuing 21M shares at £31.31 NAV. This means share count is back to pre-buyback levels.
Although it doesn't look ideal at first glance for the valuation model, keep the arbitrage in mind. With an average buyback price of £24.28 versus new issuance at £31.31, capturing that spread makes the deal value-accretive.
3i Group ($III.L) is buying ~1.8% more of Action by issuing 21M shares at £31.31 NAV. This means share count is back to pre-buyback levels.
Although it doesn't look ideal at first glance for the valuation model, keep the arbitrage in mind. With an average buyback price of £24.28 versus new issuance at £31.31, capturing that spread makes the deal value-accretive.
Great news for Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust! Fueled by an explosive ~80% pre-market surge, Moderna ($MRNA) has vaulted out of 13th place and is closing in on the portfolio’s top five holdings.
$SMT.L
MODERNA, MERCK MRNA CANCER VACCINE SUCCEEDS IN PHASE 3
$MRNA and $MRK say their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda slowed melanoma recurrence and spread in a late-stage trial.
The study was stopped at its first interim analysis after positive results, though detailed efficacy data have not yet been released.
If the benefit holds up, this would mark the first randomized Phase 3 validation of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine and could significantly broaden the use of mRNA technology beyond traditional vaccines.
