Think like an Austrian. Gamble like a Texan. https://xitter.cf/t.co/vk6RUCX5qr

Joined May 2011
Democrats discovered billionaires in politics were a threat to democracy the exact day one stopped writing them checks. When Michael Bloomberg spent around $1 billion of his own money in the 2020 primary, then another $100M to help Biden in Florida, nobody called it an attack on democracy. When George Soros put $125M into a single Democratic super PAC and became the largest political donor of the 2022 cycle, it was "civic engagement." When Reid Hoffman, Dustin Moskovitz, JB Pritzker and Tom Steyer wrote eight- and nine-figure checks cycle after cycle, it was "saving democracy." When Bill Gates reportedly gave around $50M to a pro-Harris group in 2024, silence. In 2020, dark money groups spent over $500M backing Democrats, more than double what went to Republicans. In 2024, Kamala Harris raised more than $1 billion in under three months. Democrats outspent Republicans and lost. So the problem was never billionaires in politics. The problem is a billionaire who doesn't fund your side. And here's what nobody in DC wants to say out loud: old billionaire money is quiet money. It funds the foundations, NGOs, think tanks and consultants that make up the permanent establishment. It doesn't challenge the system. It is the system. It freezes the picture: same insiders, same incumbents, same experts, every single cycle. You can like or hate Musk's spending, but at least it's out in the open. If you really want money out of politics, start with your own party's donor list.
After spending $290 million to elect Trump in 2024, Elon Musk is now spending $369 million to keep Republicans in control of Congress. Vote NO on Musk, YES for democracy. Stop Musk and Republicans from maintaining their rubber-stamp Congress for Trump’s disastrous policies.
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This is my absolute favorite CNBC moment of all time. He never gave a shit even when it wasn’t popular… Absolute legend! Happy retirement .@RickSantelli 🐐
Damn I cannot believe the GOAT is retiring. There’s nobody like him…he’s the only real asset CNBC has had. Long live the king! 👑
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Polymarket traders treat clarifications like the final whistle. A market gets clarified, everyone farms the last cents like it’s a bond. Right now there’s a market where that trade could blow up… Trump posted a video where he doesn’t say a single word. There’s now real money fighting over whether he “insulted” someone🧵🐾
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Hay un montón de basura q se hacen llamar madridistas pero su argumentación se basa en la mentira.
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What the U.S. actually did in Ecuador 🇪🇨, and what a group of traders decided it did 🐾 The market asks one narrow question: did U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation abroad? The rules explicitly exclude intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support and advisory roles It traded at 5c last few days, then it went to 93c in two days, on evidence that had been public since July 4 and July 14, which the market had already seen and priced as not qualifying. This wasn't a coincidence. It appears to be a coordinated group of well-funded traders operating through Discord servers. Every time they find an ambiguous market, they push an extreme interpretation, amplify it through coordinated messaging, and try to manufacture consensus before resolution.
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Gregg retweeted
Dems 2028 Thread 🧵 Dems are set up to potentially crush midterms via anti-Trump swing, but they face massive structural problems for the presidency. Zero obvious top-tier talent. Their bench is weak: super-woke, mostly women in a culture increasingly craving strong men (esp. white men). "White boy summer" vibes are real. Axios insiders are now whispering the same. axios.com/2026/03/29/some-de…
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Forecasting Maine’s Democratic Delegate Selection and what it means for Jackson, Bellows and Shah using the delegate written statements analyzed through the latest LLM (ChatGPT 5.6 Sol) 🔮 This may be one of the first public attempts to forecast a political nominating convention using thousands of statements submitted directly by prospective delegates through language analysis by LLMs. How the model works: To replace Graham Platner as the Democratic Senate nominee, Maine Democrats will hold a special nominating convention with 601 voting delegates. Of those, 500 delegates are being selected through county-level meetings across Maine’s 16 counties. More than 3,700 applicants submitted written statements explaining why they should be chosen and, in many cases, what they want from the eventual nominee. The model evaluates each applicant in two separate stages. First, it estimates the applicant’s likelihood of being selected as a delegate. It considers the strength and specificity of the statement, party and community experience, elected or organizational roles, local credibility, geographic representation and competition against other applicants in the same county. Second, it estimates the applicant’s probability of supporting Troy Jackson, Shenna Bellows or Nirav Shah. Signals include explicit endorsements, candidate-specific praise, Platner and labor continuity, economic populism, election administration, reproductive rights, electability, public-health leadership, executive competence and appeal to independent or Republican voters. Statements containing only generic language about unity, Democratic values or defeating Susan Collins are left substantially uncertain rather than being forced toward a candidate. These two components are combined into an Expected Delegate Contribution: Probability of being selected × probability of supporting each candidate The model then simulates the selection of the exact number of delegates allocated to each county. All 3,732 applicants were scored, with high-impact, explicit-support and ambiguous cases subjected to additional review. Results among the 500 county delegates After probabilistically resolving uncertain intent: Troy Jackson: 242.6 Nirav Shah: 148.6 Shenna Bellows: 108.8 Before resolving uncertain intent, approximately 82.3 of the 500 expected delegates cannot be confidently mapped to a candidate from their statements alone. The full convention contains 601 delegates. The other 101 are Democratic State Committee members, who are not included because they did not submit comparable statements. If all 601 delegates vote, 301 votes would constitute a majority. Jackson therefore enters the broader convention model with a considerable advantage among the 500 county-selected delegates, but the unmodeled State Committee bloc, convention attendance, candidate slates, personal relationships and later-ballot transfers could still materially affect the final outcome. The follow-up post shows the county-by-county results, including the delegates whose intent could not be confidently mapped.
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For Father’s Day, I’ll share this letter to Karl Marx from his dad
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Cuatro de las últimas 5 Champions las han ganado equipos en los que ha jugado Mbappé en los últimos 5 años. Pero Mbappé no hanado ninguna. Dos las ganó el Real Madrid, hasta que él llegó. Dos las ha ganado el PSG, desde que él se fue. Mbappé es un cáncer. Abre los ojos ya.
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Counterpoint:
"Our nation is not founded on a religion. It's not based on a common culture, even, or heritage. ... We're a creedal nation," Justice Neil Gorsuch tells @nickgillespie on The Reason Interview podcast.
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apparently it's your right as an American citizen to sell products to the government that have a back-door / off switch, so that your corporate board / A-class stockholders can veto American foreign policy, and when USG refuses to buy such products, THEY are the bad guys
Alec Stapp
@AlecStappMar 2
This is not hyperbole, and every business leader in the country needs to recognize the stakes of what’s happening:
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As usual, more lies from @DarioAmodei. @AnthropicAI wanted language that would prevent all @DeptofWar employees from doing a LinkedIn search! Then, they wanted to stop DoW from using any *PUBLIC* database that would enable us to, eg., recruit military services members or hire new employees. When I called to discuss cutting off @DeptofWar from using publicly available information would hurt our military readiness, @DarioAmodei didn't have the courage to answer. Then put out another lie that no one from @DeptofWar reached out in Anthropic's post a few hours later. He wants to play God and make new 'law' and...really stupid laws at that. We agreed, IN WRITING, to act according to the "National Security Act of 1947 and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 and ALL OTHER APPLICABLE LAWS." They wanted the word "pursuant" versus "consistent with" and wanted to delete ALL APPLICABLE LAWS which was less protective of Americans (can't make this up!) We never asked for guardrails to be taken out (lie!). We agreed to human oversight of all weapons systems by saying "The Department of War will use the AI system for all lawful use cases, in accordance, with applicable U.S. law and Department of War directives, including those governing kinetic operations and DoD Directive 30000.09...The Department AFFRIMS that it will ensure appropriate human oversight is in place and that it will monitor and retain the ability to override or disable the AI system...as appropriate." He didn't like "as appropriate." He would prefer "inappropriate"? I even agreed to take that out. He knows it, his investors, customers and employees should know about his lies. Risking the safety and security of our country and our troops are a marketing vehicle for him. Make @DarioAmodei testify UNDER OATH on why he is lying and trying to bring shame on our great military! He would rather violate the chain of command and substitute his own policies (or those of the Anthropic Constitution and the Anthropic Soul) to recruit researchers and get some downloads all while we are in the midst of a battle.
The Atlantic reports that the Pentagon wanted to use Anthropic’s AI for some type of surveillance of Americans. Given the ways some companies are already using AI today to surveil their own employees’s emails, chats, etc., I find this kind of use to be particularly disturbing
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Gregg retweeted
Cernovich
@CernovichFeb 27
What country would give woke AI executives the power to determine how a war is fought? That this discussion is even happening is lunacy.
This gets to the core of the issue more than any debate about specific terms. Do you believe in democracy? Should our military be regulated by our elected leaders, or corporate executives? Seemingly innocuous terms from the latter like "You cannot target innocent civilians" are actually moral minefields that lever differences of cultural tradition into massive control. Who is a civilian and not? What makes them innocent or not? What does it mean for them to be a "target" vs collateral damage? Existing policy and law has very clear answers for these questions, but unelected corporations managing profits and PR will often have a very different answer. Imagine if a missile company tried to enforce the above policy, that their product cannot be used to target innocent civilians, that they can shut off access if elected leaders decide to break those terms. Sounds, good, right? Not really - in addition to the value judgement problems I list above, you also have to account for questions like: -What level of information, classified and otherwise, does the corporation receive that would allow them to make these determinations? How much leverage would they have to demand more? -What if an elected President merely threatens a dictator with using our weapons in a certain way, ala Madman Theory/MAD? Is the threat seen as empty because the dictator knows the corporate executives will cut off the military? Is the threat enough to trigger the cutoff? How might either of those determinations vary if the current corporate executive happens to like the dictator or dislike the President? -At what level of confidence does the cutoff trigger, both in writing and in reality? The fact that this is a debate over AI does not change the underlying calculus. The same problems apply to definitions and use of ethically fraught but important capabilities like surveillance systems or autonomous weapons. It is easy to say "But they will have cutouts to operate with autonomous systems for defensive use!", but you immediately get into the same issues and more - what is autonomous? What is defensive? What about defending an asset during an offensive action, or parking a carrier group off the coast of a nation that considers us to be offensive? At the end of the day, you have to believe that the American experiment is still ongoing, that people have the right to elect and unelect the authorities making these decisions, that our imperfect constitutional republic is still good enough to run a country without outsourcing the real levers of power to billionaires and corpos and their shadow advisors. I still believe. And that is why "bro just agree the AI won't be involved in autonomous weapons or mass surveillance why can't you agree it is so simple please bro" is an untenable position that the United States cannot possibly accept.
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Replying to @TMTLongShort
Spot on SF techbros are the most arrogant bunch in world history and believe they are summoning a tech God and should have absolute discretion over how their tech is employed by their home government Completely ignorant. The government will never permit another sovereign entity to exist on its soil and will nip this insurrection in the bud
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The 10 year treasury is flirting with sub 4%. Mortgage rates fell below 6% for 1st time in 3 years. Inflation per truflation is below 1% Unemployment is less than expected and around 4.3% The budget deficit is lower than expected Income tax returns are running 15% higher than last year. The stock market is flirting with record highs Company profits are at records Net migration is negative The southern border is secure Foreign investment at record highs due to tariffs. Prescription drug prices are falling thanks to Trump's MFN State farm is reducing auto insurance premiums by 10% Home prices are falling. Consumer spending is steady Grocery prices are steady or falling Gasoline is below $2.50 in many states Wages are increasing Cartels are imploding Illegal truck drivers are being cleared from the road. Crime is down. Military recruitment is at record highs. Corruption is being addressed. Stop dooming, if you are, the present is great and the future looks even better.
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I will always tell the American people the truth. Pesticides and herbicides are toxic by design, engineered to kill living organisms. When we apply them across millions of acres and allow them into our food system, we put Americans at risk. Chemical manufacturers have paid tens of billions of dollars to settle cancer claims linked to their products, and many agricultural communities report elevated cancer rates and chronic disease. Unfortunately, our agricultural system depends heavily on these chemicals. The U.S. represents 4% of the world’s population, yet we use roughly 25% of its pesticides. If these inputs disappeared overnight, crop yields would fall, food prices would surge, and America would experience a massive loss of farms even beyond what we are witnessing today. The consequences would be disastrous. I support President Trump’s Executive Order to bring agricultural chemical production back to the United States and end our near-total reliance on adversarial nations. His EO protects two pillars of national strength: our defense readiness and our food supply. When hostile actors control critical inputs, they directly threaten the security of the American people. The Trump administration will secure these supply chains to eliminate that vulnerability. President Trump did not build our current system — he inherited it. For decades, Washington designed modern agriculture. Policymakers wrote farm policy, directed research dollars, structured subsidies and crop insurance, and shaped commodity markets to reward monocultures and maximum yield. Those deliberate choices locked farmers into chemical dependence and prioritized short-term output over long-term soil vitality and human health. We are now changing course — without destabilizing the food supply. Alongside @USDA @SecRollins, we are accelerating the transition to regenerative agriculture by expanding farming systems that rebuild soil, increase biodiversity, improve water retention, and reduce reliance on synthetic chemicals, including pre-harvest desiccation. We are also driving the rapid adoption of next-generation technologies, including laser-guided weed control, electrothermal and electrical systems, robotics, precision mechanical cultivation, and biological controls that replace blanket spraying with precision intervention. These solutions are not theoretical. Farmers are already putting them to work. Markets are scaling them. Now the federal government will act with urgency to expand their reach and accelerate adoption nationwide. I have met with hundreds of farmers and agricultural leaders across the country. They understand the pressures firsthand. Chemical inputs cut into margins. Chemical-resistant pests are spreading. Soil health is declining. Foreign markets are shutting out American produce. Farmers want workable alternatives, and they want policies that support transition without threatening their livelihoods. At HHS, I am leading a coordinated effort grounded in gold standard science. I am working with Secretary Rollins and @EPALeeZeldin to expedite a better future where a thriving agricultural system is less dependent on harmful chemicals. We are sharing data, coordinating strategy, and supporting farmers through a practical transition. The Make America Healthy Again agenda forces us to challenge long-standing assumptions about how we grow food, structure markets, and measure success in this country. Reform at this scale will test entrenched interests, and it will not move in a straight line. President Trump has opened the door to this debate and backed meaningful change — not only in policy, but in the national conversation about health and agriculture. American farmers stand at the center of this movement. They deserve policies rooted in rigorous science and economic reality. Our children deserve a food system that protects and strengthens their health. With President Trump’s leadership, we are securing critical supply chains, confronting the health risks embedded in our current system, and deploying every available tool to build a stronger, safer, more resilient American food supply.
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Gregg retweeted
Glenn Greenwald
@ggreenwaldFeb 17
So anyway, last night I was sitting around, and a politician called me. She told me to get a pen and write down what she wants me to put in the NYT about her, in response to widespread criticism. So I wrote it down and put it in the paper, while adding my own defenses of her.
AOC came to Munich to warn about the far-right. Coverage focused on 2028 & verbal missteps. She gave me a call. "Everyone’s got this story wrong, that this is about me running for president," she said. "Global democracies are on fire the world over." nytimes.com/2026/02/16/us/po…
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This is the best video on X right now. Nothing else even comes close.
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They’re flying in immigrants to vote b/c they reneged on all the promises they made to African Americans & can no longer get the African American vote by default. They’re causing distractions in the streets to distract from the billions they stole from tax payers.
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Yesterday, @ICEgov arrested multiple child pedophiles and violent assailants. These are the criminal illegal aliens we’re getting off the streets and OUT OF OUR COUNTRY every single day. Arrests yesterday include:
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