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4 assumptions that dictate every viewpoint I have:
1) There will always be a competition to be "King of the Hill”.
2) Power vacuums fill.
3) Make room for assholes in your system, they'll always exist, and most viewpoints are subjective.
4) INCENTIVES RULE THE WORLD.
Gregg retweeted
Democrats discovered billionaires in politics were a threat to democracy the exact day one stopped writing them checks.
When Michael Bloomberg spent around $1 billion of his own money in the 2020 primary, then another $100M to help Biden in Florida, nobody called it an attack on democracy.
When George Soros put $125M into a single Democratic super PAC and became the largest political donor of the 2022 cycle, it was "civic engagement."
When Reid Hoffman, Dustin Moskovitz, JB Pritzker and Tom Steyer wrote eight- and nine-figure checks cycle after cycle, it was "saving democracy." When Bill Gates reportedly gave around $50M to a pro-Harris group in 2024, silence.
In 2020, dark money groups spent over $500M backing Democrats, more than double what went to Republicans. In 2024, Kamala Harris raised more than $1 billion in under three months. Democrats outspent Republicans and lost.
So the problem was never billionaires in politics. The problem is a billionaire who doesn't fund your side.
And here's what nobody in DC wants to say out loud: old billionaire money is quiet money. It funds the foundations, NGOs, think tanks and consultants that make up the permanent establishment. It doesn't challenge the system. It is the system. It freezes the picture: same insiders, same incumbents, same experts, every single cycle.
You can like or hate Musk's spending, but at least it's out in the open. If you really want money out of politics, start with your own party's donor list.
Gregg retweeted
This is my absolute favorite CNBC moment of all time. He never gave a shit even when it wasn’t popular…
Absolute legend! Happy retirement .@RickSantelli 🐐
using @cryptobasenji's new analytics platform @alphametrico to supplement my football betting.
was able to catch an early morning winner in the Dutch league.
highly recommend checking it out.
and as always, using polymarket. @PolymarketTrade
update on this.
woke up to a 4-0 result from my bets in the Japan 1st division football (soccer) league.
@cryptobasenji's tool @alphametrico paying dividends so far.
and with @Polymarket adding more markets, I can start researchign leagues I normally wouldn't.
@PolymarketTrade
xitter.cf/insertthesis/status/20…
i've sold off my remaining alcaraz shares. going in with the zverev position at 12 cents and added Aliassime and Fils at 3c and 7c
this is a tournament for long shots. i could see a wide open semifinal situation.
and will be actively betting against alcaraz in most matches at long odds, including rd 1
@PolymarketTrade @Polymarket
Alexander Zverev at 14 cents looks like one of the cleaner spots on the board right now.
Sinner withdrew from Cincinnati with a right-knee issue and still hasn’t fully committed to New York, Alcaraz has been sidelined since April with a wrist injury, missed both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and is only now ramping training intensity with a final decision still pending this week.
Even if both ultimately play, the realistic scenarios include limited match fitness or potential mid-tournament pullouts. Exactly the kind of variance that opens the door for a proven contender. Zverev just won his first major at the French Open, reached the Wimbledon final (pushing Sinner to four sets), and is currently competing in Cincinnati.
I've also added Sinner at 31 cents as a hedge. a pullout bumps the Zverev position and if he plays then this 31 balloons back up to 45-50 in moments.
@PolymarketTrade @Polymarket
Bucs to win NFC South at 33 cents is a steal. Weakest division in the league, 8-9 wins usually gets it done. Baker’s the best QB in that group and they just won it 4 years in a row before last year’s collapse. Saints Panthers Falcons all have bigger holes. Getting them at 33% when they should be higher. Smash. #Bucs #NFL
@PolymarketTrade
@williamlegate
Justin Herbert over 24.5 TD passes at 56¢ on Polymarket is free money (outside of injury of course)
Career numbers don’t lie:
31 (rookie), 38, 25, 20 (injured 13 games), 23, 26 last year. Full-season floor is basically 23-25 even in down years. Average when healthy sits well over that line.
New OC Mike McDaniel brings the creative, motion-heavy scheme that gets the ball out quick and created YAC in Miami. It made Tua look good, what do you think he'll do with only the offense to worry about and an elite QB at his disposal.
O-line was a disaster in 2025 (54 sacks). Healthy Rashawn Slater + Joe Alt (elite tackle duo) + interior upgrades = massive protection upgrade. Top-5 unit potential. Better scheme + better protection + young playmakers = this hits easy.
56¢ is a gift.
@PolymarketTrade @williamlegate @ba
Gregg retweeted
Polymarket traders treat clarifications like the final whistle. A market gets clarified, everyone farms the last cents like it’s a bond.
Right now there’s a market where that trade could blow up…
Trump posted a video where he doesn’t say a single word. There’s now real money fighting over whether he “insulted” someone🧵🐾
I've taken a position on Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide on Polymarket. I think there's a decent chance he pleads guilty and confesses before July 2027 deadline. Defense has focused heavily on:
- preserving constitutional challenges as to process
- challenging the death penalty
You do this when your client has told you he's guilty. He turned himself in. There are multiple confessions, verbal and written. His friends on discord as well as his parents recognized him from the early video that was released. Tyler himself also acknowledged the video he was spotted in.
I'm using the legal analysis from lawyer @RobertBarnes, verifying it, and then just going through the publicly available evidence that can be found online.
trade safely.
@PolymarketTrade
Another polymarket bet I love is Josh Allen Over 3,599 passing yards at 52 cents.
Why? He’s cleared 3,600+ in each of the last 6 seasons. Even with thin WR help last year he still hit 3,668. Now he gets a real #1 in DJ Moore + Joe Brady’s offense. The line is soft.
load the over.
@polymarket @PolymarketTrade @williamlegate
Alexander Zverev at 14 cents looks like one of the cleaner spots on the board right now.
Sinner withdrew from Cincinnati with a right-knee issue and still hasn’t fully committed to New York, Alcaraz has been sidelined since April with a wrist injury, missed both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and is only now ramping training intensity with a final decision still pending this week.
Even if both ultimately play, the realistic scenarios include limited match fitness or potential mid-tournament pullouts. Exactly the kind of variance that opens the door for a proven contender. Zverev just won his first major at the French Open, reached the Wimbledon final (pushing Sinner to four sets), and is currently competing in Cincinnati.
I've also added Sinner at 31 cents as a hedge. a pullout bumps the Zverev position and if he plays then this 31 balloons back up to 45-50 in moments.
@PolymarketTrade @Polymarket
Miami at 62¢ on the ACC is pure value.
Why?
The Hurricanes return a stacked core: Mark Fletcher Jr. + deep RB room, star WR Malachi Toney, and most of a lockdown secondary. Skill talent is elite and new QB Darian Mensah is a clear upgrade over Carson Beck. More accurate deep ball + better fit for the scheme.
Rest of the ACC is soft (Clemson/SMU/Louisville all down), schedule is favorable. Canes should cruise.
Buying this up to 75 cents.
@Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @williamlegate
I've taken a position on PSG (15 cents)+Bayern (14.5 cents) to win the UCL.
both teams were clearly in a class of their own last year. Bayern arguably better. was better in their H2H elimination round. Won non pk xG. got fucked by the refs and an incredible PSG team as well. Bayern is bringing everyone back with a few additions and some home grown youngters. Olise has joined Vini/Jude/Kane/Haaland at the top of the player rankings.
@polymarket @PolymarketTrade @williamlegate
No team in Europe has taken what i consider a meaningful step forward to match them. Madrid with Mourihno is the only wild card, but we can trade around that once there is more information. They have very simpnle changes to make, we'll see if mbappe has the will to make them, or if he's forced to.
Barcelona still have similar issues as past couple seasons playing with such a high line without the speed/physicality for defensive coverage. Rodrigo is a possession player that doesn't fix that. Tho he's incredible on the ball, they will have to adjust their style a bit.
Arsenal still missing top level attackers. elite defense. I think they should be priced at 12 cents at #3 where they currently are.
getting both favorites at 29 cents is a steal. I have them at 40-45 cents combined fair value. Trade safely.
@polymarket @PolymarketTrade @williamlegate























