HF Reflections retweeted
We are short $YSS because our research shows the Pentagon is replacing $YSS’s primary customer (96% of 2025 revenue) with a program where SpaceX's Starshield is the currently named—sole-sourced—provider. $YSS was banking on funding from the Tranche 3 Transport Layer for its future growth—and now it appears to be completely gone. We expect $YSS to miss its FY 2026 revenue guide by ~30% and face a dilution spiral in 2027 as its backlog withers.
Former employees described a chaotic picture where the company cut corners and delivered “poor quality” satellites that were figuratively held together by “zip ties” and mission software that wasn’t capable of fully operating at launch. We believe $YSS’s systemic problems were partly to blame for the Pentagon’s move to completely scrap the Tranche 3 funding and will also make it extremely difficult for it to win any sizable government or commercial contracts sufficient to replace its lost revenue stream.
HF Reflections retweeted
"It feels like an illogical leap to extrapolate from Claude Cowork Plugins, to this expectation that every company will hereby write and maintain a bespoke product to replace every layer of mission-critical enterprise software they have ever deployed." - JPM
HF Reflections retweeted
At Avenir, we’ve followed the emerging bear cases on SaaS closely.
This 46-page deck contains our reflections and research on the path ahead.
We see opportunity and risk as SaaS companies vie with AI natives to be "systems of context."
Link in replies, excited to discuss!
HF Reflections retweeted
What are some of the coolest ways you have incorporated LLMs / vibe coding into your investing process? (Research, position tracking, etc)
HF Reflections retweeted
Well I absolutely didn't anticipate my short post on Alex Silverstein's spin-off launch from P72 to go viral.
To the 1,000+ followers I've picked up overnight and those fascinated by the process leading to my assessment of Alex, here's a link to my Odd Lots appearance last year.
Such a blast talking to @MagicRatSF. If you're interested in the world of multi-strategy hedge funds, and how they identify the great traders, give it a listen. Also some very important info at how he landed his gig at Point72.
HF Reflections retweeted
I'm hiring for two roles, entry-level, Austin-based. Base pay $150k-$250K, bonus $50k-$200k. Raw talent over experience preferred. You will work directly with me.
See open roles here: militiainv.com/careers
HF Reflections retweeted
Chris Hohn on his secret to outperforming the market by an average of 9% per annum
HF Reflections retweeted
This is a big issue with public investing as a portfolio manager in sectors where you were never an analyst. PMs should be able to understand why someone you manage got something wrong or right, not just if they got it right or wrong. This is the biggest issue with portfolio managers building teams. They blame analysts for mistakes, fire them, and then go hire another analyst but without a plan for how to hire or train someone that will be better than the prior one. The ability to hold high standards are always domain specific.
Cc @stephsmithio
HF Reflections retweeted
Looking to add another analyst at SF Bay Area hedge fund.
Global generalist fundamental long/short equity strategy + proprietary sourcing and data science platform.
If you have a passion for public markets, reach out. 3-7 years experience req’d. DMs open, retweets appreciated.
HF Reflections retweeted
Of the top 10 constituents of the $IWM, only one has an EV/Sales under 4x and only one is under 40x EV/EBIT.
Four essentially have no revenue and five are not profitable.
HF Reflections retweeted
A lot of CIOs treat LP meetings as a nuisance.
But if you actually listen, you can learn a lot from the questions LPs ask. They rarely give direct feedback, but their line of questioning tells you exactly what they are thinking. They speak to a lot of funds too so they are triangulating info all the time.
Sometimes it is deliberate, sometimes not, but sophisticated allocators have far better portfolio and risk analytics than most single-manager funds. Their questions often reveal what their systems already know.
HF Reflections retweeted
This is the retail mania that is driving the bubble hype in companies like $ionq and $rgti. Live trading social concert events i.e. GAMBLING!
$IONQ is over 30% owned by retail Korean investors.
That is insane.
Throughout history retail has been shown to have paper hands, when the turns happens as it is now the collapse will compound by panic selling.
HF Reflections retweeted
Friends,
This is why we don’t do crypto levered 20:1 - a 5% flash crash wipes you out.
And they happen ALL THE TIME, especially during thinly traded overnight sessions. #BTC
In memecoins, the moves are even bigger and much less leverage will decimate you.
See last night…
HF Reflections retweeted
Hard to not feel bad reading stuff like this. But as a country, we've also convinced ppl they're better off gambling than putting in hard work, which is "not great", to put it mildly.
HF Reflections retweeted
Replying to @ContrarianCurse
Closed a fund last year. During the office clear out I spent a week flicking through old sell-side research reports and internal pitches from the previous seven years, all neatly filed away. It is incredible how much time and effort went into ideas that, with hindsight, were miles off. All the information, data, models, and hours of meetings and still wrong.
It is humbling to look back and see how thin the line is between conviction and delusion, and how much of this business ultimately comes down to sound judgement and course correction under persistent uncertainty.
HF Reflections retweeted

Ethan Mollick@emollick27 Sep 2025
United States
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
I gave ChatGPT Codex an article & screenshot from a famous, lost Maxis simulation, SimRefinery, and asked it to create it for me.
It built a playable prototype for me while I did other stuff, never touching any code once, instead just occasionally poking Codex for small changes.
HF Reflections retweeted
There are so many people on this platform creating and sharing great content.
I am starting a thread to highlight those who are doing great work in equity research and investing. Will keep adding to it over time.
I also appreciate any suggestions as to who should be on here
HF Reflections retweeted
For anyone who wants to dig really deep into U.S. effective tariff rates across countries and products we've begun adding very detailed tariff data to WSL SECTORTARIFFS<GO> on @theterminal. We have a lot more coming in on this and in ECAN<GO> & TARI<GO> in the coming days! 🌎
HF Reflections retweeted
Replying to @TuckerCarlson
I am Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research referenced repeatedly in this bizarre and fantastical interview. During my career, I helped expose numerous financial scams, including over a dozen Ponzi schemes and numerous instances of public companies lying to and stealing from investors: hindenburgresearch.com/about…
I am immensely proud of that career including our work on Nikola Motors referenced in the interview.
Trevor Milton is a convicted fraudster held criminally responsible for the incineration of hundreds of millions of dollars in retail investors’ hard-earned money. As should be unsurprising, Milton in this interview seems to just fabricate key events and information out of thin air – unfortunately with zero critical questioning or pushback from Tucker.
For starters, contrary to Trevor Milton’s implications that his prosecution was some sort of Biden administration conspiracy, conveniently neither Milton nor Tucker share that the investigation into Milton was started and disclosed in September 2020 – under the first TRUMP administration and well before the 2020 election.
There were numerous inaccuracies throughout the interview. The claim that Hindenburg paid employees for inside information is patently absurd. The key whistleblower discussed in the interview was only briefly a contractor for Milton. He was so horrified by what he viewed as Milton’s repeated false claims that he did a tremendous amount of research on his own, unraveling numerous additional suspected lies that Milton peddled to the investing public.
Further, Hindenburg didn’t “coordinate” anything with media or the DoJ. Such entities ran their own investigations for their own purposes unconnected to us. There was ample evidence that Milton misstated numerous aspects of his business, as the company itself later acknowledged.
It would take hours to write about all the other absurdities, half-truths, innuendos and false statements in this interview but in the interest of correcting some of the record, here’s a handful:
- Milton waxes on about his pardon, but no one mentioned that Milton’s lawyer was Brad Bondi—the brother of AG Pam Bondi. Nor did anyone mention that Milton donated $900 thousand to Trump in October 2024, less than a month before the recent election—strategically timed well after his criminal conviction and immediately prior to the presidential election. Trump acknowledged he had never heard of Milton before being asked to pardon him but relied on others for the recommendation.
- Milton failed to mention that immediately prior to his resignation from his company, beyond the extensive allegations of fraud, he was also publicly accused of multiple instances of sexual assault, including by his own cousin, who went on-the-record with her allegations.
- I can only wonder what kind of investigation Tucker undertook of the fraud allegations against Milton before having him on. Milton literally video-taped a truck rolling down a hill implying that it was driving under its own power. He also went up on stage and said a truck that didn’t work “fully functions and works.”
- Waxing poetic about hydrogen in the interview echoes Nikola’s lies to retail investors that it successfully produced hydrogen at a cost ~81% lower than anyone on earth, a feat that would have upended the entire energy industry had it been remotely true. Nikola’s head of hydrogen production, presumably in charge of this world-changing scientific breakthrough, turned out to be Milton’s own brother, who had no scientific background and previously did odd construction jobs in Hawaii.
- These weren’t one-off misstatements—there were dozens of examples like these. As the DoJ said – and proved in court – Milton “made false claims regarding nearly all aspects of Nikola’s business.” The company itself admitted to many of these false statements, agreed to a $125 million fine, and won an arbitration against Milton holding him personally liable for his conduct.
- Milton claimed that Hindenburg made $30m-$100m on our Nikola investment—this isn’t even close (we made a fraction of that). Trevor seems to just be making these numbers up out of thin air.
Hilariously, Tucker opened by suggesting that short selling was illegal until 2007, a claim that is completely false. After confirming that he knows nothing about the subject, he went on to suggest that short selling should be criminalized outright.
Short selling has existed for hundreds of years, and for good reason. Short sellers play a critical role in the functioning of healthy markets, similar to the role of investigative journalists, (which I presume Tucker considers himself akin to).
Most companies are a force for good and economic growth. However, some companies lie and engage in fraud. Short sellers have exposed nearly every major corporate fraud in the past several decades because just as there is an economic incentive for identifying the good companies, there is also an economic model for identifying the scams. This is how free markets and free speech works—helping weed out the bad companies and those stealing from investors so good companies have more room to thrive.
Claiming to be a free speech advocate while casually advocating for the imprisonment of anyone who dares to speak critically about public companies is a contradiction of the highest order.
In short, Tucker, I highly suggest you actually vet the people you welcome onto your platform. If you find yourself staring, mouth agape at your interviewee, repeatedly saying “Wow! This is unbelievable!” it may in fact be because it’s unbelievable.
You reach a lot of people and this one was an avoidable miss. Good day.





























