Matt K retweeted
Welcome to Discipline Season:
ServiceNow and the other high-flying SaaS companies ($TEAM, etc) have fallen 80%+, but absolutely are NOT “bombed out” stocks.
They previously were just ridiculous.
“Bombed out” is PayPal at 6x free cash flow (FCF); 7x if you charge for SBC.
At $100, $NOW trades at ~18x 2025 FCF.
BUT, 1/3 of that FCF requires you to ignore Stock Base Compensation (SBC).
That means $NOW is closer to 27x 2025 SBC-charged FCF - not exactly trading like death.
Read on - 1/x 🧵👇
I wonder if Claude code going to finally convince software investors that Buffet was always right:
‘If options aren’t a form of compensation, what are they? If compensation isn’t an expense, what is it? And if expenses shouldn’t go into earnings calc, where should they go?’”
And meanwhile, mgmt teams will want and seek more stock awards to offset share price declines in the name of “retention.” The irony of course that supply vs demand of software talent is heading towards oversupply. At a minimum, AI allows for more development with less people.
Matt K retweeted
@HawleyMO The Senate hearing was a first step to raise awareness, but firefighters and communities still face grave risks. Without followthrough, there will be no change.
Where is DOJ? Where is FTC?
reuters.com/legal/government…
Looking to add another analyst at SF Bay Area hedge fund.
Global generalist fundamental long/short equity strategy + proprietary sourcing and data science platform.
If you have a passion for public markets, reach out. 3-7 years experience req’d. DMs open, retweets appreciated.
Matt K retweeted
Global $450M small cap L/S, generalist firm hiring an analyst, will report to PM & Senior Analyst. Ideal candidate has <4yrs work experience, VIC member or substack author, demonstrated passion for public markets, curious, eager to learn. Please send to [email protected]