世界是一个巨大的楚门世界 TG:@hellosuoha

Macau
Joined June 2021
梭教授说 retweeted
我怎么感觉papertrade这股风刮得有点邪门了?这项目从经济学上完全不可行啊? Papertrade 不在 Hyperliquid 上真实下单。它是用户和 LP 之间的合成合约:开仓时锁定 Hyperliquid 的 BBO 中间价,平仓时再读一次,盈亏直接跟 LP 结算。爆仓有大约 5bp 的缓冲,穿仓时没收全部逐仓保证金,所以亏损封顶在保证金,盈利却不封顶。 问题出在价格跳空。如果价格在两次预言机读数之间直接跳过爆仓线,亏的一边只赔保证金,赚的一边按整个跳幅结算。所以双开对冲本质上是用一份保证金买了一个跨式期权。 举个例子:两个号各 $1,000 保证金,开 1000x,名义价值各 $1M。FOMC 公布后第一次读数 BTC 跳了 0.5%。空单爆仓亏 $1,000,多单毛利 $5,000。毛利和成本之比大约是 1000 乘以跳幅,跳幅只要超过约 0.1%(再加上 haircut)就是正期望。而且亏的那条腿还能铸币:LP 低于 $2M 时,每亏 $1 铸 100 PAPER。 每次大事件或插针,对冲套利者从 LP 抽走一笔,LP 长期上不去,兑付队列越排越长。赢家拿不到钱,散户就流失,没有新的亏损补 LP,质押分红也随之消失。这个循环是自我强化的。连项目介绍本身也承认,模型依赖源源不断的散户,LP 资不抵债是可能的。在悲观情况下,PAPER 会趋近于零。它背后没有资产兜底,只是一张分红权。 dev卖100条裤子赚20wu,我认为是这个项目最大的发明创新点
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关于THORChain和Bitget之间的事,很多节奏带的有问题,明确一下: 1. 被盗这件事就是Bitget的安全风控问题,这个锅甩不掉,THORChain是否出手属于道德层面,但我们是希望它做些事情。 2. THORChain在技术上能不能出手,答案是能,其实只要3-4个节点就能打开Mimir紧急开关。 3. 如果THORChain出手 能做到什么程度, 打开Mimir之后,理论上能停止交易签名,甚至暂停全网活动。但它没办法针对某个地址标记和拉黑,包括很多人说之前THORChain自己被攻击的时候暂停过,但实际最终损失也是追不回来了,最大的作用是修复了bug,防止同一个漏洞继续掏其他金库。 4. 从结果来看,THORChain是否干预起不到足以左右结果的作用,但它官方的回应情商有点低。Bitget这边也不用把精力都放在这上面了,集中精力做好善后工作吧。
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今天是Gate事件刑事立案后的第25天 @Han_Gate 是韩林派出律师全程线下介入的第9天 @gate @Gate_zh 同步一下最新进展:就是拖时间 我原以为律师介入会成为案件实质推进的转折点。但9天过去,我至今收到任何可以核实的推进结果: 没有完整材料交接,没有关键证据提交结果,没有提交完整的日志(是不敢) 更关键的是,我此前要求提交的手持身份证视频、人脸识别视频、后台完整操作日志及关键风控数据,至今没有看到落实。 我的账户7月2日还在正常登录,还是长期使用Passkey的活跃账户,我不禁想问呢: 一个正常登录的活跃用户,什么样的情况下,会舍弃常用登录方式,且忘掉所有自己的信息,包括手机号、邮箱、登录密码、资金密码、Google验证器? 哪怕能打个电话确认下呢?这么大的风控逻辑漏洞也能出现在运营超过 13 年的平台,拥有“成熟的权限管控和数据防泄漏体系与日志” 170万USDT放在Gate,不是把钱扔进一个出了事没人负责的黑箱。Gate收着手续费、宣传安全、保管资产,最基本的责任,就是在账户出现异常时把钱拦下来。 出事以后,Gate没有先解释为什么所有安全防线同时失效,反而忙着证明是用户的问题: 1.攻击者7月4日、5日更换邮箱后,我根本收不到后续通知,Gate却把短短两天说成“长期不看邮箱”; 2.立案前说已经掌握大量线索,只等警方调函,立案后关键视频、完整后台日志却迟迟不交 平台保管资金,钱没保住; 平台宣传风控,异常没拦住; 平台承诺负责,关键证据和赔偿都看不到。 收钱的时候是大平台,出事的时候却恨不得把全部责任推回用户。出了事,平台第一件事不是保护你,而是想尽办法证明:钱没了,是你自己的错。 我再次要求Gate:立即出示手持身份证原始视频、活体人脸识别视频,送交权威机构鉴定。鉴定费我出,随便你去哪里鉴定,所有鉴定费用我双倍支付,绝不推脱 现将34000美金放在bsc链上,接受监督: bscscan.com/address/0x6c7a4d…
Replying to @Han_Gate
到现在还以为是单纯一个案子的问题?双倍赔偿就可以挽回口碑吗? 避重就轻,前倨后恭,前后不一,谎话连篇,还开盒用户。这些行为,怎么解释? xitter.cf/DeFi8362/status/208393…
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我想分享一下今天的心路歷程 今天有一半的時間我感到害怕,本來我是 X 和 Thread 同時發了這篇文,但我收到了這個留言(如圖)。豬怯步了,想著不是我的事情我真的要淌渾水嗎 當時在 Thread 上第一個小時已經被轉發到很多地方,我害怕事情被擴大 也有朋友提醒我,大家都是來吃瓜的,真的遇到事情只有你自己站在前面處理 但我想到,如果連我自己是 Boss 都不幫忙。那其他女孩因為工作壓力而不方便公布,那這個世道誰願意發聲 憑什麼是受害者需要害怕?如果每個人都選擇沈默,那下一個受害的人又會是誰 我默默撤掉了 Thread 上的文(因為我不懂法),但保留了 X 的讓大家不要踩坑 更何況我發的事情是真實存在的,同時已經有其他人公開了 6 位受害者的被騷擾截圖,各位女孩們你不是一個人
給大家吃個瓜,就是他喜歡騷擾幣圈女孩 抹茶 BG Lbank 的都被她騷擾過 (肯定還有更多),他會發 P 過的交易量圖,然後假借他有交易量 24 小時信息騷擾她們 已經嚴重到讓我朋友害怕打開手機 反正台灣 BD 遇到這個人繞道走就好
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🚨Thierry Henry on Portugal’s elimination from the FIFA World Cup: 🗣️ “I’m going to say something that a lot of Portuguese supporters probably don’t want to hear. This Portugal team has massively underperformed. Not because they lacked talent, but because too many of their biggest players never reached the level everyone expected. Bruno Fernandes has been dreadful by his own standards throughout this World Cup. The creativity, the leadership, the decisive moments we’ve seen for years simply weren’t there. Then you look at Vitinha and João Neves—fresh from winning the Champions League with PSG. Two midfielders who dominated Europe. Yet in this tournament, they’ve been almost invisible. Missing in action when Portugal needed control, composure and personality. And then there is Cristiano Ronaldo. People will blame him because that’s the easy thing to do. I won’t. Because if you decide to start Cristiano, then you have to build situations that suit him. Instead, Portugal kept circulating possession without purpose. They had one of the greatest penalty-box finishers football has ever seen, yet they hardly gave him the service he lives on. That’s not on Ronaldo. That’s on the team around him. Spain deserve enormous credit. They played with a clear identity from the first minute until the last. Every player knew his role. Every movement had purpose. Portugal, on the other hand, looked like eleven talented footballers trying to solve the game individually rather than collectively. That’s why Spain are still in this World Cup. And that’s why Portugal are going home. Not because they had worse players… But because they never played like a better team.”
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Thierry Henry did not make these comments and has instead criticized Ronaldo's play, saying "The team needs to score, not you." espn.com/soccer/story/_… bleacherreport.com/articles/25442…
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$MU 的财报好其实不太能解决市场注意力因为资金成本上升转移到大云厂商还烧不烧的起 token 这个问题上来. 这个主要问题如果没解决, 感觉 spx 再创新高还挺难的. $MU 财报越好, 说明 token 成本会越高, 这对前端的 app 端, 其实并不是利好. 长期协议确实是个保险, 但是不要忘记 $orcl 和 OAI 也有长期协议, 当 gpt 5.4 表现垃圾, 不如 opus 4.6 的那段时间, 市场觉得 OAI 出不起钱的时候, 一样会通过它的股价和它的债券收益率表达担忧. 这段 tokenmaxxing 冷却的波段我会看2个方向: 1. app 端有没有个什么新闻证明 token 盈利能力, 这个有 hard fact data 证明, 直接看几个头部模型的 token 月使用量, 贵了增长速度就下降, 用户都是用脚投票. 2. FED 因为经济数据也好, 还是其他原因也好, 重新转鸽, 资金成本下来. 如果要靠单个公司的财报打消这个疑虑, 我感觉也要看 msft, aapl, googl, amzn 这4家, 它们其实才是直接用 token 从终端用户手里掏钱出来的地方.
$MU: “LP5 to LP6, DDR5 to DDR6 and newer generations of HBM all come with rising bit costs. This trend... is projected to cause the DRAM cost per bit to rise from current levels.” “Industry data center DRAM & NAND bit shipments in CY26 [are] expected to more than double from 2Yrs ago.”
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THE PLAY THAT PUT THE KNICKS UP 3-1.
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Michael Saylor
@saylorJun 7
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Esports but DWF is in god mode
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SWAP IS LIVE NO FEE USE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Your dedicated alt.fun on-chain scanner is live! altfunquant.com I spent the whole night reverse-engineering the entire launchpad contract with AI, and finally managed to decode all the data. Tool overview: 0️⃣ The dashboard is split into two sections: top and bottom. 1️⃣ Top section: Left: real-time trade feed Top right: internal market cap leaderboard Bottom right: external market cap leaderboard 2️⃣ Bottom section: Internal and external trades are grouped by token. How to use: 1️⃣ The original frontend is basically unusable right now because the RPC is overloaded. 2️⃣ My dashboard also can’t afford some insanely powerful RPC yet. 3️⃣ So you’ll need to get your own RPC from somewhere like Alchemy and plug it in. Format example: hyperliquid-mainnet.g.alchem…<key> Happy trading! @altdotfun @HyperliquidX @tradexyz
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上线swap了!我们冲!!! altfunquant.com 你只需要在一个地方交易 @altdotfun 你自己的RPC,你自己的数据,所有都是你自己的 0手续费,官网什么样这里就是什么样 USE at OWN RISK!
你的专属 alt.fun 扫链工具上线了! altfunquant.com 花了一晚上和AI一起逆向了整个launchpad的合约,终于解析出来了所有的信息。 工具介绍 0️⃣整个面板分为上下两部分: 1️⃣上半部分: 左侧是实时的交易流 右上是内盘市值排行榜 右下是外盘市值排行榜 2️⃣下半部分: 内盘和外盘的交易按照token分类 使用说明: 1️⃣原版前端因为RPC过载什么东西都加载不出来 2️⃣我的面板现在也没有钱买超级屌的RPC(有老板看到欢迎赞助) 3️⃣所以你需要去alchemy等地方获取你自己的RPC填入 格式类似:hyperliquid-mainnet.g.alchem…<key> Happy Trading! @altdotfun @HyperliquidX @tradexyz
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If you're wondering why you only received around 5-35 tokens per point in EdgeX, here's a list of wallets (all no more than 10 days old) that have collectively claimed around $16M - roughly 32 million $EDGE. Looks like their point price is clearly much higher. Yep, @edgeX_exchange? 0xe7f74d18eb2d75c75dc1eae63e26ec98018824e1 8,690,455.34 EDGE 0x084b319f4c2af70787c47bf0ebb3ee72834f8306 6,128,108.5 EDGE 0x21502aa6a6d2379dbea31dbb943fad69a8c9556b 6,063,201.86 EDGE 0xeab5625e63a16abead97f2bd08aa2aefeeec4a50 4,310,372.39 EDGE 0xe56c330f1a8f53ad6af28b9461573fe8b280a938 1,146,492.2 EDGE 0xb51113321b5c0569a11421134a92456626248f96 1,135,291.31 EDGE 0x57c60fc2676b79bae256877676ac5023a0dff736 1,034,266.1600 EDGE 0xbc95f71a333d7e843e560522bfa181a7b9be972c 773,552.13 EDGE 0x08289a4b179e0cf2172edb9cae2c0abcefe79ac4 746,293.2100 EDGE 0xc1273335cd8aaeddbd1a9c05db0c4be4bcd95b1d 731,665.3200 EDGE 0xc3063bab4480c5cab5ac2f842f5418dc54ddc5a5 647,693.6200 EDGE 0x717b43fa5550945dd72de241d275d72f952fa9c9 567,998.6300 EDGE 0xf600542384470f6bd4a8cdbf9fba5a9eb5926eda 482,732.9900 EDGE It's obvious that the teams are just handing out airdrops to themselves, so don't be surprised when your point ends up cheaper than everyone else's. muar.app
EdgeX (@edgeX_exchange) airdrop claim is now open Contract address $EDGE: 0xb0076de78dc50581770bba1d211ddc0ad4f2a241 With my stats I received 9.8k $EDGE in total, which is valued at ~$5.4k on pre-market. Looks like they allocated 23.11 tokens per 1 point - $12.71 at pre-market. For 1 XP - 2.91 tokens ($1.60 pre-market). It's strange, considering that my airdrop allocation on the pre-market came out higher, but apparently some multipliers cut it down. Still, I'm happy with this too. 30% of the total supply is allocated to the airdrop. 21% of allocation goes to points holders 3% of allocation goes to $MARU memecoin holders 1% of allocation goes to NFT holders 5% of allocation goes to XP holders Great March for Perp Dexs - @paradex, @avantisfi, @Backpack, @BasedOneX, @edgeX_exchange. A special thanks to Based and EdgeX for such generous airdrop distributions, especially considering the bear market we're in right now. Paradex and Backpack, well, thanks to you for finally stopping milking your users with those long point seasons. My current tier list of perp dexs - muar.app
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$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting. There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute. I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why: Assembly: -> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints -> then sell the transceiver. $FN (Asia) -> ~$20B MC. ~$4B projected revenue, 12.4% gross margins. Design + Assembly: - Buys lasers from $LITE / $COHR, design the 800G and 1.6T -> then sells the transceiver. Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~ 46.2% gross margins, ~$11B projected revenue Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B projected revenue Lasers: - Creates the Lasers to sell to Innolight + Eoptolink or creates the lasers + design to give to $FN to assemble for them/. $LITE, $55B MC: FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B (~40% margin) (they also do more than lasers, eg. $LITE with Cloudlite does design -> $FN to assemble based on blueprints too, but not the entire process end-to-end). ( $COHR and $AVGO do this too) _ _ _ _ _ _ Entire supply chain (laser chips, design, and assembly) $AAOI $7.5B MC: Midpoint 2027 est. ~4.5B ARR (40% margin) - $AAOI makes the laser (like $LITE), designs it from ground up (like Innolight), then assembles it like ( $FN ): And it's primarily made in the USA. -> $AAOI does the $LITE / $COHR lasers in-house -> $AAOI does Innolight/Eoptolink transceiver design. -> $AAOI does $FN's assembly. This is possible margin expansion/optimization across the board. Best of all they're projected to leapfrogging $LITE's FY2026 projected ~$2.91B revenue... By doing: ~4.5B ARR mid-year 2027 When you look at $AAOI's $7.5B Marketcap. And you look at each part of the photonics supply chain from $LITE at $55B to Eoptolink at $55B. Anyone can see the raw, unadulterated upside if they execute.
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跟了鸽子一手,他止损我止损😁。
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0xWizard
@0xcryptowizardJan 30
我不希望 bn 倒掉,也不希望一家独大。 从20年老韭菜就在开玩笑,玩币归赵,真实现了谁也笑不出来了。 我希望 bn 以及新的竞争者,能互相制衡,良性竞争发展,这样对大家都好。 只剩一个节点的区块链,总归让人扫兴。
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People have underestimated the impact of 10/10. The incident caused real and lasting damage to the industry. An industry-leading company should focus on strengthening core infrastructure, building trust with global users and regulators, and protecting the long-term interests of the majority of crypto users, setting an example for others to follow. Instead, some chose to pursue short-term gains—repeatedly launching Ponzi-like schemes, amplifying a handful of “get-rich-quick” narratives, and directly or indirectly manipulating the prices of low-quality tokens, drawing millions of users into assets closely tied to them. This has become their shortcut for attracting traffic and user attention. Legitimate criticism is then drowned out—not through facts or accountability, but via aggressive narrative control and coordinated influencer campaigns. This approach does not build an industry. It erodes trust—and ultimately, everyone pays the price.
CATHIE WOOD: THE WORST IS LIKELY OVER FOR BITCOIN Cathie just laid it out pretty clearly and says the last 2–3 months were basically the aftershock from the Oct 10 flash crash -- a Binance software glitch that forced ~$28B of deleveraging across crypto. Bitcoin took the hardest hit because it’s the most liquid asset. That unwind is mostly done & now the debate has shifted to the 4-year cycle. Are we still in the downside phase? Cathie’s answer: probably not. She sees $BTC likely basing in the ~$80K–$90K range, then moving higher once that consolidation does its job. Institutions aren’t questioning if #Bitcoin belongs anymore -- they’re figuring out how to size it as a new asset class with low correlation. The forced selling looks behind us. What comes next is positioning. 👀
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推特最近傻逼真多 踏空的,喊单的,FUD的 你他妈都没买,没上车,没赚到钱,你分析你妈呢? 时间线条,信息流越来越垃圾,这也是我最近不想发推的原因,真正能讨论的可能就wx几个很好的朋友和小群。 建议散户还是自己提高学习能力,少看傻逼发文。 你他妈都没买,没上车,没赚到钱,你分析你妈呢,分析你妈呢???
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记录一下一姐见面会: 直观感受是一姐读了很多书,语言水平很高;币安已经是很成熟的企业,不会主动创造热点,核心是做好用户服务,拥抱技术变革~ 核心哲学:敢为天下后。 1. 币安内部治理结构自下而上。 2. Palu是员工主导的,不反对内部试错。 3. 给出去的返佣不会撤回,主推币安广场,希望广场KOL能沉淀对人有用的内容,会继续发展内容模块,做垂类和干货。 4. 多次强调用户为王。用户只要在都行,产品只是为了用户做服务,做不做第一个不重要,会根据用户需求拥抱新东西。 5. 业务做不做根据ROI决定,欢迎提反馈,大量化机构的需求都能满足。 6. 调侃了1011币安在PR上的失误。 7. 负重前行,做CEO之后希望培养人才和合伙人。 8. Alpha是被6小时直播骂出来的,目前Alpha会升级,根据行业变化做策略变化。 9. 山寨的价值为0是AI翻译的错误,客服新手,持仓在币安广场公开。只有BNB和BTC,小币都是空投。上币在底线上(项目/Founder/产品是真的),其他根据市场情绪。投资有风险。 10. 买卖壳欢迎举报,遇到直接下架,Alpha的底线项目是真的,搞空投就能上。 11. 美股是钱包的用户需求,产品形态不成熟在找更优解。 12. 保险基金被妖币攻击失血了,很不喜欢这种行为,接下来会管的很严。 13. 币安嫡系创业,会主动去私信用户发现人才,会希望帮助别人成功。 14. 接下来没项目怎么办,币安不引领叙事(多次强调),只观察发现市场上的财富效应,帮用户吃到VC红利,找小而美的项目,有商业模式吃成长红利,对大VC币恐惧,对叙事不感冒。 15. 周期理论还是存在,节奏和比例不一定,还是会有外面的钱买BTC。在平稳期钱不好赚了的过程也是周期的一部分。
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说实话这zama比infinex 更出生一点😅一个好歹设置了fdv,只是卖的贵了一点。这个直接无上限荷兰拍了,所谓的隐私出价,你也看不到别人出价,只能尽可能出高价,直接榨干了二级市场的利润,也算是直接把最贵的筹码卖给社区了。
Announcing the Zama Public Auction. We’re selling 10% of the $ZAMA supply via a sealed-bid Dutch auction on Ethereum, using the Zama Protocol itself to keep bids confidential with FHE. Why this matters: ◼️ Fair distribution & real price discovery ◼️ No bot sniping or gas wars ◼️ Tokens are unlocked immediately 🗓️ Auction: Jan 12–15 🗓️ Claim: Jan 20 $ZAMA is the utility token of the Zama Protocol, a confidentiality layer for existing L1s/L2s: ◼️ Pay encryption & decryption fees ◼️ Stake or delegate to operators ◼️ Help secure FHE coprocessors & KMS nodes Mainnet is expected to launch by year-end, with $ZAMA fully functional before the auction. Get notified at launch: auction.zama.org
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