대머리 일런 retweeted
Bear market or not, we won't see ATH for a long time.
I’ve been through two bear markets and survived both, so listen.
Price-based capitulation is not the danger; the most dangerous thing is time-based capitulation.
It's designed to burn you, slowly.
Survive.
대머리 일런 retweeted
I personally need to let a few more days of price action unfold before taking any trades.
Things aren't so clear to me on 12H/1D after such a wild event.
In the past I'd find myself dropping to the 1H to try and take advantage of the volatility and it never works well for me.
It's important to know yourself as a trader and have the patience to let the trades come to you.
대머리 일런 retweeted
Adaptability is one of the most important things for a successful investor/trader
Often, people see lots of signs telling them otherwise than what they want to see and choose to ignore those signs or look for reasons so it fits their bias instead
Successful ones are looking to challenge their bias and adjust probabilities to each scenario. They see the market for what it is not what they want it to be
This skill can be learned over time
대머리 일런 retweeted
"The larger the group, the easier to deceive." @RobertGreene
대머리 일런 retweeted
방향만 다를 뿐 극단적 탐욕 구간과 공포 구간의 심리는 동일합니다.
지금은 극단적 공포 구간입니다. 가격이 올라도 기대보다는 의심부터, 조금만 떨어져도 부정적인 생각부터 듭니다.
그래서 현시점의 구간은 사실상 고래의 영역이고, 고래가 원하는대로 가격을 만들기 너무 좋은 구간입니다. 그리고 여전히 저는 이 구간을 탈출이 아닌 더 큰 상승을 위한 청소 구간이라고 생각하고 있습니다.
다시 한번 말씀드리지만, 준비가 끝났다면 하락 움직임처럼 상승 움직임도 극단적으로 움직일 수 있다고 생각하고, 이미 가격은 다시 대응할 수 없는 구간에 도달했을 겁니다.
그래서 비트코인이 아닌 초보 투자자들이 알트코인을 투자하게됩니다.
막상 까놓고 보면 돈을 버는 사람은 많지가 않고, 풀매수를 하지 못하기 때문에 수익률(%)를 자랑하는 글이 많습니다. 그래서 이런 글들을 부러워 할 필요가 없습니다.
1. 아직 추세 관점에서의 반등을 얘기하기에는 이릅니다.
2. 이제 사람들은 조금만 하락해도 실망할 것입니다.
3. 그래서 추세 전환은 하락과 마찬가지로 극단적으로 상승할 가능성이 높습니다. 작년 횡보 조정 구간과는 다른 패턴입니다.
4. 이렇게 되면 결국 94k 아래의 구간은 고래의 영역이 되고, 사람들이 다시 관심을 가지게 되는 것은 결국 최고점을 돌파하고 나서입니다.
5. 비트코인은 본인만의 움직임을 계속해서 만들고 있으며, 점점 윤곽이 뚜렷해집니다. 다음은 비트코인입니다.
6. 정답은 없습니다. 본인이 결정하면 됩니다. 이랬다저랬다 노이즈에 흔들리지 않고 본인만의 기준을 잡아야 합니다.
대머리 일런 retweeted
The best investors in the world are really good at doing nothing for long periods of time.
대머리 일런 retweeted
Great thread
As governments increasingly get involved with Bitcoin/ crypto we should think critically about what's happening & why
Always
I've been thinking about the US Strategic Bitcoin/Crypto Reserve and there are two possible outcomes:
1⃣ The reserve is $BTC and none of the mentioned altcoins actually make it in
2⃣ We're going to accelerate into degeneracy unlike anything seen before
Long thread time. 🧵👇
대머리 일런 retweeted
One reason why the US is a major financial center is because there is rule of law and guidelines for how things are done - things generally make sense.
That's why people from around the world feel safe investing into #Bitcoin ETFs and securities in the US.
If Trump can somehow just unilaterally pick random shitcoins to put into a national reserve, well, that is just very bad for the US. Things stop making sense. It's now a free-for-all.
That sets us down Path #2: accelerating into degeneracy. The impact is far greater than just "crypto" but could potentially undermine the US financial system - even moreso than the fiscal mismanagement of the past few decades.
대머리 일런 retweeted
BREAKING: President Trump announced that he is doubling tariffs on China from 10% to 20%
대머리 일런 retweeted
Tariffs are likely bad for the US economy, but good for cryptocurrency.
Why are they bad for the US economy?
Because production can't go up overnight, but prices can. Because returning production to a country is even harder than building it in the first place. And because the US makes far more from its money-printing business than its manufacturing business.
Why are they good for cryptocurrency?
Because internationalist capitalism will move onchain, even as nationalism and socialism gain ground offline. Because the only truly binding cross-border contracts will soon be smart contracts. And because you might not be able to trust a country's economic promises, but you can trust cryptography's mathematical guarantees.