@genemaIIF

Head of China Research & APAC Chief Rep @iif; Formerly Tudor Investment, Evercore ISI, and Citics.

 Singapore
iif.com/people/gene-ma
Joined February 2017
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240Media
The weakness of CNY in 2022-25 was mostly market-driven. PBoC has been trying to support and stabilize CNY at around 7.1-7.2.
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FX receipts were not brought home or settled into CNY until 2H2025.
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The rising FX settlements into CNY in the past year helped lift the CNY exchange rate.
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Chinese bonds, equities, and the currency held up well during the Iran shock, especially compared with many Asian peers. CGB yields fell, Chinese equities outperformed most regional markets, and the CNY was among the more stable major currencies.
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More importantly, Chinese financial assets have exhibited relatively low correlation with major global markets over the past decade.
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But foreign investors were still net sellers of Chinese bonds and equities in March-April. Chinese assets can be good candidates for hedging and diversifying risks. However, they have not become safe-haven assets in the eyes of global investors.
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China’s goods surplus has become the focal point of the global trade debate, but the more interesting change may now be occurring in services. Why China’s services trade matters for global imbalances weforum.org/stories/2026/05/… via @wef

Why China’s services trade shift is reshaping global macroeconomics | World Economic Forum

China’s services trade is undergoing a major shift, with a narrowing services deficit quietly reshaping global macroeconomics and reinforcing the country's massive external surplus.

weforum.org
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Though it runs the world's largest goods trade surplus, China runs the largest services trade deficit.
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However, China's service trades have been growing at twice the pace of goods trade.
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For years, China’s large services deficit helped absorb some of the pressure generated by its manufacturing surplus. That offset, however, is becoming less reliable as China's service exports are likely to expand and the service deficit is likely to narrow.
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Commentary: How China and Europe Should Manage Their Trade Tensions caixinglobal.com/2026-03-13/…

Commentary: How China and Europe Should Manage Their Trade Tensions

China and Europe should anchor their rivalry within clearer, more transparent, and more reciprocal rules, a path that does not eliminate conflict — but makes it manageable

caixinglobal.com
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China consumes 80% more energy than the US and more than twice as much as the EU.
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Its sources of oil and gas imports are very diversified.
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Therefore, Hormuz's impact on China is much smaller than on its Asian neighbors.
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Did the weak Chinese household consumption channel excess output to the global market? Well, retail sales of consumer discretionary items were quite robust ytd, thanks to trade-in subsidies. Except for cars, the export growth of these consumer goods was modest in 2025.
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Three examples of weak domestic sales but strong exports are rebar and cement, which suffered from plummeting construction and investment, and ICE cars, which domestic consumers are abandoning.
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The strong export of copper, EVs, and batteries cannot be attributed to weak domestic demand. Their domestic sales have been strong over the past two years.
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