Transnistria has officially requested Russia's assistance due to "economic pressure" from Moldova. The appeal to Russia specifically highlights the need to "protect" over 200,000 "citizens of the Russian Federation" residing in the region. "The appeal claims that Moldova is imposing an almost genocidal economic blockade on Transnistria. However, the document does not mention the 2006 referendum where citizens voted in favor of independence with later entry into Russia. Although this omission is noteworthy, it is not a request for acceptance into Russia. This move is logical for both the elites of the Transnistria and the Kremlin", – explained a UIF expert Igar Tyshkevich. Tyshkevich also suggests that Moscow is escalating the situation with a "request to protect" document, which provides many options for the Kremlin's actions. 📍If Moscow mentions 200, 000 "Russian citizens," it automatically implies a threat of possible use of force and legitimizes this option as the protection of "our citizens." 📍The threat is always stronger than the action itself and could be a way for the Kremlin to raise the stakes for EU and US politicians to negotiate. 📍With the presidential elections coming up in Moldova in 2024, Maia Sandu may have a chance to retain her seat or lose to a "pro-Russian" candidate. Any reaction from the president carries risks, as pro-Russian parties will use the Transnistrian issue to announce the threat of the country's collapse. This could lead to the participation of residents of the "PMR" in elections and several hundred thousand votes for the "pro-Russian" candidate. 📍The threat of destabilizing Moldova will become Romania's No. 1 problem in the region and reduce attention to the Ukrainian issue. 📍Kremlin gets the opportunity to play "swing" without obligations, using tactics like the "there is no money but you hold on" statement addressed to the separatists from the "PMR" and ending with the real preparation of annexation or threats of military force. Putin's circle may not be in consensus yet, but they understand the need for blackmail and raising stakes; however, the answer to the question "what will happen to the PMR" is still unknown.