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枯れた技術の水平思考

Joined July 2020
Photo by Jim Miraflor (@futilityfunc)Photo by Jim Miraflor (@futilityfunc)Photo by Jim Miraflor (@futilityfunc)Photo by Jim Miraflor (@futilityfunc)Photo by Jim Miraflor (@futilityfunc)Photo by Jim Miraflor (@futilityfunc)
CICERO + GPT-4 + KAIROS + AlphaStar ≈ Skynet
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Meta had an internal PR plan to try and discredit Jon Haidt because he was a critic of social media. Meta was going to recruit academics, like Andrew Gelman, to write take down pieces. They were trying to turn academics against one another through a "whisper strategy". This is a very serious problem for open academic debate. If academics who share negative evidence about a platform are targeted by campaigns to smear our credibility, we are in deep, deep trouble. This creates a very serious conflict of interest for anyone who is paid to do this. law360.com/articles/2542517/…
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Jim Miraflor retweeted
We're about to enter a period where not reading or writing becomes as ubiquitous as smoking once was. We can hope people will eventually realize this is bad for them, as they did with smoking. But this is far from certain; the cost may not be as obvious.
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The best, most comprehensive take on AI I’ve read. After a year of confusion and fear about the future, I finished it feeling like a weight had physically lifted. It’s long. Make the time. @vgr is undefeated. contraptions.venkateshrao.co…
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Jim Miraflor retweeted
list of 15 best AI researchers on X: 1. @karpathy — Andrej Karpathy 2. @rasbt — Sebastian Raschka 3. @AndrewYNg — Andrew Ng 4. @drfeifei — Fei-Fei Li 5. @demishassabis — Demis Hassabis 6. @GaryMarcus — Gary Marcus 7. @ai_explorer25 — AI Explorer 8. @maximelabonne — Maxime Labonne 9. @chipro— Chip Huyen 10. @ilyasut— Ilya Sutskever 11. @thsottiaux — Thibault "Tibo" Sottiaux 12. @bcherny — Boris Cherny 13. @geoffreyhinton — Geoffrey Hinton 14. @JeffDean — Jeff Dean 15. @fchollet — François Chollet
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Replying to @BRICSinfo
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Replying to @BRICSinfo
FATALITY
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This is an urgent issue for mathematics academia to sort out. Since that will probably not happen soon, I'm just going to make some obvious observations in case they are helpful to junior researchers. 1. Publication and hiring have always been driven by individual views. Even if the community reached consensus on "official standards", the issue of AI usage would clearly remain divisive at an individual level. 2. Thus, no matter what the "consensus" is, the market for mathematics will effectively divide along a new axis, "level of AI adoption". There will be buyers and sellers all along this axis, and people should pick the point where they find intellectual fulfillment, which has always been the main reason to pursue mathematics academia. 3. People don't agree about AI, but everybody agrees that dishonesty is unacceptable. Lying about AI use will probably be considered a blacklist-level offense, like plagiarism. 4. Nobody is going to hire you for doing something that AI can do better, faster, and cheaper. Maybe in the past, someone could get tenure just for writing up a paper with a big result. That time is obviously over; proofs are cheap now. People will be looking for different things going forwards, so don't tunnel on results.
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So let met get that straight: paying a wealth tax is impossible (“billionaires have no liquidity”, “it would be taxing unrealized gains”, “their wealth is virtual”) but paying half a billion to influence elections is possible. Did I understand well?
Elon Musk has cemented his record as the largest individual political donor in modern American history. Musk poured $446 million of his own money into this year’s midterm elections, mostly aimed at preserving the Republican Party’s control of Congress. wapo.st/4igb5Kq
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Seeing the tsunami of comments, I realize the irony: You are right that I was admitting to puzzlement at the fact that (many, not all) centi-billionaires act like the homo economicus of the basic economic textbook😀: They maximize utility (or at least wealth), try to keep as much as they can, and the hell with other motives. And, indeed, this is what puzzles me. I would have thought (but this is the left wing me…) that they would care about more, including the welfare of others less lucky, and would be willing to pay the tax. That they might even volunteer to help (a few of them actually do). I hear from the comments (although I suspect none comes from a centibillionaire…) is that maybe they care (although some of the comments are : Why should they?). But, even if they do, they do not trust the government not to come back with another “one time tax”. And that money given to the government is a waste of money. This may indeed be the reason, and I should not have been surprised. I am afraid that there is not much the CA state can do in terms of credible commitments not to come back for more. But on the waste argument. The centibillionaires could have come back and offered public private partnerships to fund specific projects that they find worth funding. (Or maybe the state could have offered them)
What amazes me is the attitude of so many of the centibillionaires. A 5% tax will not make any difference to the way they live. Their spending may be extravagant, but it is still much less than their (correctly measured) income. They know that, as gifted as some of them indeed are, they have benefited from extreme luck (and the help of the state, and, to speak like an economist, monopoly rents). They know that their effective tax rate is low, relative to what many others pay. They know that extreme inequality is extremely unpopular, and can lead to political unrest, backlash, or worse. They must admit that, morally, it is hard to argue for a society in which some become obscenely wealthy, while so many are poor and see their income stagnate. They typically have not indicated that they are building their wealth to eventually make the world a better place. But they are still willing to fight the tax, spending hundreds of millions in California to avoid paying the tax. Why? They simply think what is theirs is theirs, end of story. They believe in the slippery slope, and if they do not take a stand on this levy, the government will come back for more. They hate the state and the notion that their money will be misused? Or?
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What amazes me is the attitude of so many of the centibillionaires. A 5% tax will not make any difference to the way they live. Their spending may be extravagant, but it is still much less than their (correctly measured) income. They know that, as gifted as some of them indeed are, they have benefited from extreme luck (and the help of the state, and, to speak like an economist, monopoly rents). They know that their effective tax rate is low, relative to what many others pay. They know that extreme inequality is extremely unpopular, and can lead to political unrest, backlash, or worse. They must admit that, morally, it is hard to argue for a society in which some become obscenely wealthy, while so many are poor and see their income stagnate. They typically have not indicated that they are building their wealth to eventually make the world a better place. But they are still willing to fight the tax, spending hundreds of millions in California to avoid paying the tax. Why? They simply think what is theirs is theirs, end of story. They believe in the slippery slope, and if they do not take a stand on this levy, the government will come back for more. They hate the state and the notion that their money will be misused? Or?
This is huge. A just-released SEC filing makes an extraordinary revelation: Mark Zuckerberg is getting ready to pay California’s 5% billionaire wealth tax and has signed an agreement to remain in California for 8 years. We are witnessing a global turning point unfold before our eyes. 🧵
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This is huge. A just-released SEC filing makes an extraordinary revelation: Mark Zuckerberg is getting ready to pay California’s 5% billionaire wealth tax and has signed an agreement to remain in California for 8 years. We are witnessing a global turning point unfold before our eyes. 🧵
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If billionaires will threaten to leave with a 5% tax, perhaps the United States can explore a "Jack Ma Tax" that will impose 100% tax and temporarily deprive a billionaire certain liberties like mobility.
This Hoover Institution study, which has fueled the deluge of ads (more than $200 million spent by billionaires so far) to defeat the California billionaire tax, is spectacularly misleading. Let me explain its crucial flaw. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Zucman argues that the tax will raise his projected revenue because billionaires who leave CA after 1/1/26 will be taxed anyway. At least $542B of net worth (Page, Brin, Thiel) departed the state by 12/31/25. The entire thread is a misleading denial of this fact. ft.com/content/d66976… nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/… forbes.com/sites/forbeswe…
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Wake up. Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.
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所谓优雅的数学结构,本质上是人类为了迁就自己那点可怜的脑容量,被迫发明出来的拐杖。 一个顶尖人类数学家的工作内存,撑死也就同时追踪五六个变量的交互。 当你在算一个偏微分方程或者组合不等式时,一旦展开到三阶以上,几十个交叉项涌出来,人脑就直接宕机了。 所以人类数学家极其厌恶展开高阶项,一旦看到高阶项发散,人类的本能反应是此路不通,赶紧退回来找对称性、找不变量、搞同调代数或者几何直观,试图不展开式子就把问题绕过去。 但 AI 没有这个生理缺陷。 对于上万个并发的 Agent 来说,同时追踪一万个五阶交叉项的系数变化,跟我们算 1+1 一样轻松。 在它的视野里,根本不需要什么几何直观,它直接站在高维的代数展开式里往下看,人类觉得像乱麻一样的百项高阶余项,在它眼里就是一张明明白白的线性方程组。 既然把式子硬展开到第七阶,再凑几个待定系数就能让所有讨厌的发散项精准归零,它为什么要费劲去帮你发明一个人类能看懂的新概念? 这 700 个结果背后最无奈的黑色幽默:我们终于拿到了上帝账本里的答案,却发现上帝算账根本不用微积分,他老人家是直接拿计算器硬按出来的。
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Jim Miraflor retweeted
所谓优雅的数学结构,本质上是人类为了迁就自己那点可怜的脑容量,被迫发明出来的拐杖。 一个顶尖人类数学家的工作内存,撑死也就同时追踪五六个变量的交互。 当你在算一个偏微分方程或者组合不等式时,一旦展开到三阶以上,几十个交叉项涌出来,人脑就直接宕机了。 所以人类数学家极其厌恶展开高阶项,一旦看到高阶项发散,人类的本能反应是此路不通,赶紧退回来找对称性、找不变量、搞同调代数或者几何直观,试图不展开式子就把问题绕过去。 但 AI 没有这个生理缺陷。 对于上万个并发的 Agent 来说,同时追踪一万个五阶交叉项的系数变化,跟我们算 1+1 一样轻松。 在它的视野里,根本不需要什么几何直观,它直接站在高维的代数展开式里往下看,人类觉得像乱麻一样的百项高阶余项,在它眼里就是一张明明白白的线性方程组。 既然把式子硬展开到第七阶,再凑几个待定系数就能让所有讨厌的发散项精准归零,它为什么要费劲去帮你发明一个人类能看懂的新概念? 这 700 个结果背后最无奈的黑色幽默:我们终于拿到了上帝账本里的答案,却发现上帝算账根本不用微积分,他老人家是直接拿计算器硬按出来的。
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A possible way forward for mathematics in the age of superintelligence can be gleaned from ancient and contemporary history: a retreat to the shadows. Note the examples of the cult-like Pythagorean Brotherhood and the modern, pseudonymous Nicolas Bourbaki collective. 1/
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Results should either be shared among peers under conditions of extreme secrecy with harsh hidden punishment for violators, or sporadically shared to the public under untraceable group aliases. 2/2
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This is perhaps one of the great ironies of our time: China is increasingly shaping the future of AI, yet very few people in the West have the faintest idea how its key thinkers see it - its philosophers, sociologists or ethicists. As is too often the case, we - much like the frog in the well - assume our own AI debate covers every possible view, when much of it springs from the same cultural soil, built on assumptions about what defines us that we don’t even know we’re making. Take for instance the assumption that intelligence is a key part of what makes us human. It’s so intuitively obvious to us that we literally named our species after it - Homo sapiens (Latin for "wise man"). If you think about it, just this assumption explains a large share of the anxiety: if intelligence is what makes us human, then artificial intelligence - or super intelligence - threatens the very thing that makes us us: we’re about to compete with artificial or super “us”. No wonder this feels existential. But China has a tradition of thought as old as ours, if not older, and every bit as rich and sophisticated, which never placed intelligence at the core of what makes us human, and so meets the thinking machine from a completely different starting point. Have you, for instance, ever heard of Zhao Tingyang? Probably not, and yet he may be the most original thinker on AI you’ve never read. He’s one of China’s most prominent philosophers, at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. While Silicon Valley spends billions trying to make AI share our values, he for one argues that doing so “may very well be a suicidal mistake”. Sounds pretty important to hear him out, don’t you think? Or take Liu Yongmou, a philosopher of technology at Renmin University in Beijing. His thinking is almost the opposite of ours. Where we fear machines that become more and more like us, he says that “humanity’s biggest problem is the machinization of humans, not the humanization of machines.” You could even go back to antiquity, when, in many ways, we started asking questions about AI. Did you know, for instance, that Aristotle, in the Politics, imagined a world where “the shuttle would weave and the plectrum touch the lyre without a hand to guide them”, and wondered about the social order consequences of this (mostly whether slaves would still be needed)? There are Chinese equivalents to this. For instance, in the Zhuangzi, a foundational Taoist classic, you’ll find a similar thought experiment, with a completely different worry attached. An old gardener is watering his vegetables by hand, hauling water out of a well jar by jar. A visitor shows him a labor-saving device, and the gardener turns it down for the reason that whoever uses machines ends up with 机心 (jīxīn), a “machine-heart” - a mind that schemes, calculates and loses its simplicity. “It is not that I do not know [the machine],” he says, “but I should be ashamed to use it.” Two labor-saving machines, two very different questions: where Aristotle wondered what automation would do to the social order, the Zhuangzi wondered what it would do to us, on the inside. Which, you’ll notice, is exactly Liu Yongmou’s worry, more than two thousand years earlier. In fact, as we’ll see, 心 (xīn), the heart, is a motif that runs deep through the Chinese AI debate. It appears both in the fear, from Zhuangzi to Liu Yongmou, that machines could give us a “machine-heart” and its mirror image: the ambition to give machines a heart of their own. Zhu Songchun, who heads the Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence, wants “to set a heart for machines” (为机器立心, wèi jīqì lì xīn). “Heart” in the Chinese sense, that is, which differs totally from the Valentine's Day fluff we’ve reduced it to. 心 (xīn) means heart and mind at once: it’s where we feel but also where we think, tell right from wrong and care for others. And, crucially, it’s in the heart that the quality Confucianism sees as the very definition of a human being takes root: 仁 (rén). We need two words to translate it, “benevolence” and “humaneness”, but in Chinese they’re one and the same: to be benevolent is to be human. It’s not about intelligence. This is the entire point of my new article: to step out of our well for a moment and peer over the edge of China's. What you’ll find there will, I think, surprise you, with questions you’d never thought to ask: from Zhao Tingyang warning that AI’s bad consequences can at least be fought, but that “humanity may die of all the good things AI creates”, to whether the fear that AI will make us “useless” rests on the false premise that a person is worth what they’re useful for. A premise that a 2,300-year-old Taoist tree, which survived precisely because it was useless, demolished long ago. Could our predicted uselessness turn out, much like that tree’s, to be our saving grace? Chinese thinkers’ answers to these questions are, I think, among the most interesting anyone has given to the defining question of our time. Whether or not you agree with them, they’re the intellectual backdrop of a country shaping much of AI, and with it our future: you might as well know what they think. Enjoy the read here: arnaudbertrand.substack.com/…
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there’s a lot of people who say they are interested in economics but what they really are interested in is playing dolls with people and ideas that don’t matter anymore
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Jim Miraflor retweeted
"Controlling complexity is the essence of computer programming." — Brian Kernighan
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