@finphysnerd

Physics grad, value investing zoomer, reality tv star, pole dancer, 'best hair on fintwit'. 🏳️‍🌈🇦🇺.

 Sydney, New South Wales
valuezoomer.substack.com/
Joined December 2015
  • Tweets9.9K
  • Following389
  • Followers7.1K
660Media
New writeup on the other site (link in bio) Focusing on Focus Point $FOCUSP: Malaysia's largest optical retail chain. 20% market share as the lowest cost franchise option amongst a fragmented industry. Consistent low double digits grower at a 9x earnings multiple.
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If you're naturally bearish like me I think it pays to push long when positioning gets washed out like it is now even if fundamentals are bad. Retail has been selling, hedge fund net leverage is low, $RSP and $QQQ have been smashed. You are going to be right 60-80% of the time,
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And if you are like me your conservatism will protect your downside even if you're wrong, and you'll be wrong with everyone else. More importantly if you're right the Rip's are aggressive and you'll be kicking yourself for missing them.
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Overall hedge fund net positioning according to Goldman has dropped to levels we haven’t seen outside of liberation day in the past five years. While US Long/Short Fund gross leverage is at the 56th percentile one-year (and the 90th five-year percentile), US net leverage saw “the largest weekly decline since Apr ’25 (week of Liberation Day) and the 4th largest weekly decline in the past five years to 43.7%” which is the 0 percentile for both the one and five-year lookbacks. The US Fundamental long/short ratio (MV) remained at the 0 percentile one-year (and now also five-year). So hedge funds decreased longs and increased shorts last week, likely in a move to preserve what has been a good year, but leaving a huge amount of room for them to eventually reengage with the market.
Neil Sethi NEW account
@neilsethinewOct 18
The Week Ahead – The Rotation Continues AI worries are pressuring Tech and sending yields lower as we embark on a heavy earnings week including several names in the cross-hairs. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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Checked out Parkson retail $O9E.si today, both the store and the stock. Department store trading at 3x earnings with 2 large dividends recently. Net cash is a bit deceptive as it offsets payables and other liabilities, but revenue and earnings seem to have stabilised a bit.
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I hate buying terminally declining stocks, but at 3x earnings if they keep paying out solid dividends this is very very cheap.
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Closing my $QQQ and $SMH shorts here and lowering my $IWM exposure. I think we're bottoming here so keeping net long exposure, but the Q's and tech have really lagged over the last 2 weeks. Very happy with this trade.
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French stocks being absolutely pummelled. $VIL getting pummeled with them despite being a Swiss company with no consumer exposure and positive exposure to interest rates and oil volatility. For anyone looking to dumpster dive French stocks it's an obvious candidate. I continue to
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Steadily buy, but it's already my second largest position at 7%ish.
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We're so back (in hell).
Kacper Piotr Kaminski
@CerlogicFounder12h
Tech up, everything else down. $SPY $XLK $RSP
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First of the biotech basket to pop off🥳🥳
AnotherBioInvestor
@AnotherBio14h
$SLN whoop whoop 20$ takeout
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Somebody is absolutely puking $CTOS here. Down 14% on no news today and 8% in the last hour. The cybersecurity breach is clearly a concern, but realistically I don't see it affecting long term earnings significantly. I'm steadily buying the dip.
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There’s a real ‘pain trade is up’ setup brewing here
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Hot take, I think valuation shorts are totally fine, and in some cases are more attractive than other forms of shorts. A few of my biggest winners this year have been valuation shorts. The big issue is valuation short against a strong narrative (eg Palantir 2025) or valuation
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Shorts that aren't actually that overvalued (a 10+15% grower trading at 30x earnings can be overvalued, but still easily trade to 40-50x). Sizing is very important. Stuff like $CBA, $WDFC, $WMT, $WING have been some of my biggest winners this year with no catalyst.
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The Nasdaq 100 fell every trading day this week, marking only the 19th 5-day losing week since $QQQ began trading. QQQ rebounded within 4 trading days in 17 of the previous 18 cases. Odds favor the bulls for next week.
Bluekurtic Market Insights chart showing QQQ price history since 1999, highlighting 19 instances when the Nasdaq 100 ETF declined on all five trading days of a week. A historical forward returns table shows QQQ gained four trading days later in 17 of 18 prior cases (94.4%), with an average return of 1.8%. The latest signal occurred on October 16, 2026.

ALT Bluekurtic Market Insights chart showing QQQ price history since 1999, highlighting 19 instances when the Nasdaq 100 ETF declined on all five trading days of a week. A historical forward returns table shows QQQ gained four trading days later in 17 of 18 prior cases (94.4%), with an average return of 1.8%. The latest signal occurred on October 16, 2026.

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Myles retweeted
Myles@finphysnerdOct 17
Replying to @janeo1934
I've actively told my friends to give me every thought they have or thing they read, they know I fade it a lot of the time. I have a friend who gets pump and dump stock promotion tiktoks and sends them to me. I've found multiple new shorts that way.
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I'm probably going to reduce my $QQQ short here significantly. Yesterday felt like a puke, seasonality is in its favour from here, rumours of $20b pods blowing up and most importantly: non finance friends asking me about the possibility of a crash.
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Seeing a lot of glasses stores in KL. Chatted to a tour guide and his thoughts were this. Competition has increased, especially in large cities. However, Focus Point has huge brand value and reputation, and still dominates in more regional areas. The era of double digit growth
Myles@finphysnerdJun 3
New writeup on the other site (link in bio) Focusing on Focus Point $FOCUSP: Malaysia's largest optical retail chain. 20% market share as the lowest cost franchise option amongst a fragmented industry. Consistent low double digits grower at a 9x earnings multiple.
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might be over, but I think they are still in a reasonable competitive position and nothing negative has shown up in the numbers so far. Single digit, low cyclicality growth at an 8x multiple and 7% dividend yield is very attractive here.
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Myles retweeted
Franny
@Franny8Oct 16
Brother you just might be that someone.
aubrey martin
@QQQ275SoonOct 16
Down 20% today. Someone is blowing up.
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