Politics Postdoc, Polling London at the Mile End Institute. School governor. Co-founder of https://xitter.cf/t.co/7DDBixuZh6. He/Him
Belfast
Joined June 2011
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Eoghan Kelly retweeted
Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali (@Sagal_AW) is a fairly strong favourite for the Holborn & St Pancras by-election but @ZackPolanski isn't out of it,' says @eoghankll, postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at @MileEndInst @QMUL standard.co.uk/news/london/g…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
'This is good news for Burnham as a quarter of Green and Lib Dem voters stated that they were now more likely to vote Labour,' says @eoghankll, postdoctoral researcher in British politics at @QMUL standard.co.uk/news/politics…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
When results entered in DevolvedElections.co.uk, run by @eoghankll, it suggested Labour could remain on 11 of 25 London Assembly seats, Tories losing half their eight seats, Reform up three seat to four, Greens up one to four, and Lib-Dems retain two
standard.co.uk/news/politics…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals standard.co.uk/news/politics…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: Labour hits new record low in London with Tories pushed into fourth place behind Greens and Reform, new @Savanta_UK poll for @MileEndInst @QMUL finds standard.co.uk/news/politics…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
When simulated 1000x the closest constituencies are:
Dumfriesshire,
Edinburgh Central,
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs,
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire,
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and,
Argyll and Bute
devolvedelections.co.uk/scot…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
Our latest Nowcast projection for Scottish Parliament election 2026:
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scot…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
A Donegal man was this morning charged with 28 counts of sexual assault against 3 little girls.
They're wrecking Dublin, not Donegal, because none of this mob care how many thousands of women or girls are sexually assaulted if a foreigner isn't involved.
Pathetic bullies.
We provide seat ranges for Unionists, Nationalists and Others to see which bloc is likely to come out ahead.
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
Most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that parties win their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-p…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated.
Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win!
Presets will be added once polls come in.
irishelections.ie/presidenti…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidenti…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/nort…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
going to need someone to paint the UDA as supporters of Palestine Action so the PSNI will act
A UDA gang is warning that it plans to force every immigrant out of the Rathcoole estate in Newtownabbey. belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunda…
STV makes it a but unnecessary but there could be a slight benefit at Westminster level.
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog…
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for
@Independent_ie
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Ind — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Ind Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
From irishelections.ie
Our first ever Nowcast:
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2
From @irish_election
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection.
It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year. 🧵
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
Women's Aid Statement following the news of the murders of Vanessa, Sara and James Whyte.
For information on support visit: womensaidni.org – at Belfast, Northern Ireland
ALT Women’s Aid NI wishes to express our deepest sympathies and heartfelt sorrow to the loved ones of Vanessa Whyte and her two children, Sara and James, following the news of their murders in Maguiresbridge. To the wider Fermanagh community, please know we are thinking of you all at this time of unimaginable grief. While we cannot begin to comprehend your pain, please know that we stand with you. Vanessa is the 28th adult woman to be murdered in Northern Ireland since 2020, the vast majority of whom were killed in their own homes. Her daughter, Sara, was just 13 years old. Her son, James, was only 14. If you have any information that may assist the police with their investigation, please contact the PSNI by dialing 101. You can also contact Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111 or submit information via their website: crimestoppers-uk.org
Eoghan Kelly retweeted
Farewell to Belleek's Voice: SDLP stalwart Tommy Gallagher dies
impartialreporter.com/news/2…
