We've added new shadings for each party in all our maps, here you can see where our Nowcast thinks the NI parties will get their votes in May. SF, DUP, AP, UUP

And at the UK level. The big variations for the Lib Dems are particularly stark.

Our Scottish Westminster projection based on the latest @moreincommonuk poll 🎗️ SNP — 25 🌹 Lab — 20 🌳 Con — 7 🔶 LD — 5 The SNP would retake the lead in seats but not by as big a margin as Labour's vote holds up in the central belt. devolvedelections.co.uk/west…

Under our new Westminster model this works out as: 🎗️ SNP — 46 seats 🔶 LD — 5 🌳 Con — 3 🌹 Lab — 3 The SNP are swamping Labour as they did in 2015, 2017 and 2019

What if the UK used STV? On today's polling we think it be around: 🌹 Labour — 188 ➡️ Reform — 155 🌳 Con — 136 🌱 Green — 53 🐤 Lib Dem — 52 🎗️ SNP — 25 ⚫ Inds — 10 🌼 PC — 10 ☘️ SF — 5 🦁 DUP — 4 🔷 UUP — 3 🌹 SDLP — 3 ✊ Workers — 3 🤝 Alliance — 2 Ⓣ TUV — 1

Here's how the transfer estimate in some of our old haunts, starting with Fermanagh, Armagh & Tyrone