Engineer PD

🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran denies agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling the report that led Trump to cancel a strike "false," per Times of Israel. An Iranian military source adds the strait remains closed to any ship that does not coordinate with Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

LIVE: The FOMC and two tech giants worth a combined $4.4T could decide whether markets rally or the AI selloff gets even worse. The first major catalyst arrives at 2PM ET, when the Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%. With the decision largely priced in, attention will quickly shift to Kevin Warsh’s press conference 30 minutes later. Markets will be listening for 3 things: -whether inflation remains too high -how divided Fed officials are and -whether rate cuts are moving closer or further away A HAWKISH message would likely push the dollar and Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on stocks and crypto. While a SOFTER message could trigger a broad relief rally. Attention will then shift to Microsoft $MSFT and Meta $META, which both report after the closing bell. Microsoft reports fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results, with Wall Street expecting roughly $87.6B in revenue and $4.24 in EPS. But Azure growth, Copilot adoption and AI monetization will likely matter more than the headline numbers. The biggest focus will be its AI spending, with fiscal 2026 capex expected to reach roughly $145B. Meta reports shortly afterward, with Wall Street expecting $60.2B in revenue and $7.19 in EPS. Investors will focus on advertising growth, profit margins and whether its $125B–$145B capex plan is still rising. Strong cloud and advertising growth, combined with disciplined spending, could reignite the AI trade. But another major capex increase could pressure both stocks, even if they beat earnings expectations. Ahead of the reports, $MSFT is up ~1.1% in premarket trading near $393, while $META is almost flat near $593. Meanwhile, $BTC is back above $64k. US GDP and PCE inflation both arrive Thursday, giving markets another major test less than 24 hours later. Are you ready?

JUST IN: The Senate has NOTHING scheduled for the CLARITY Act this week. The bill is still waiting on a deal over new crypto ethics rules, which the White House supports but Senate Democrats have not accepted. Once an agreement is reached, Senate leaders can file a motion to proceed and open debate ahead of a final vote. With recess approaching, lawmakers have less than two weeks to pass the bill.

JUST IN: Trump's $1.4 BILLION in crypto earnings is complicating CLARITY Act negotiations. Senate Majority Leader Thune says he no longer expects the bill to pass before the August recess. Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year have dropped to roughly 1 in 3.

🚨ALERT: Centralized crypto exchange BitMart announces it will shut down, following BitMEX. New registrations, deposits and trading orders were suspended on July 26, with all trading set to end on August 26. BitMart’s BMX token plunged roughly 63% in 24 hours.