AZ Early Ballot facts:
85% of households that turn in an early ballot, do so on the same day.
If your housemate already returned on an earlier day, your daily return odds go up 1.4×
Mixed-party households don’t just vote less they return separately:
67% same-day vs 88%
Expect a big drop of early ballot returns early next week.
So far we are only seeing UOCAVA returns.
🗳️ AZ 2026 GENERAL - Early Ballot Tracker
Want to know who's actually voting?
Follow Arizona's early ballot returns yourself, any time you want.
Statewide down to county, CD, LD and precinct.
Party split at every level.
Returns measured against registration.
2022 alongside it, at the same days before election day.
stealth-analytics.com/early-…
Derek Weech retweeted
🗳️ AZ 2026 GENERAL - Early Ballot Tracker
Want to know who's actually voting?
Follow Arizona's early ballot returns yourself, any time you want.
Statewide down to county, CD, LD and precinct.
Party split at every level.
Returns measured against registration.
2022 alongside it, at the same days before election day.
stealth-analytics.com/early-… – at Arizona, USA
Derek Weech retweeted
We are disappointed with the decision of some members of the late Senator John McCain’s family to support Governor Katie Hobbs. The Governor does not share the values we know the McCain family holds dear and which Senator McCain advanced so often early in his long service to this nation. We urge them to rethink their support for Governor Hobbs who has served her cronies and NOT the people of Arizona.
We agree with @MeghanMcCain that life is short and these disagreements are not worth losing relationships or wasting time over. Time is wasting and we have a Republican governor to elect! Let's go!
Going to address something because there's quite a bit of negative online chatter directed at me over this:
My mother, siblings and I love and support each other despite our political differences and affiliations. I am still a very conservative republican, it is okay that they are not. If there is one big thing I've taken from Lindseys passing last week it's that life is short and it is not worth losing relationships or family over politics.
I know a lot of you want drama and ugliness but it simply isn't there.
Derek Weech retweeted
AZ statewide primary early ballot returns (7/14):
One week to go.
Republicans have overtaken Democrats statewide - erasing a Democratic lead that stood above 9,000 ballots a week ago.
🔴 Reps 260,595 (45.2%)
🔵 Dems 259,274 (45.0%)
⚪ Ind/Other 56,239 (9.8%)
Reps lead by 1,321 ballots (+0.2 pp) of 576,108 in.
Of independents who've voted:
🔵23,562 pulled a Dem ballot
🔴20,117 Rep
⚪12,560 Other
D 54 / R 46 on the partisan split.
Derek Weech retweeted
AZ 2026 PRIMARY EARLY BALLOT FINAL PROJECTIONS - 6 DAYS OUT
632,603 ballots in.
🔴 Reps 288,089 (45.5%)
🔵 Dems 282,602 (44.7%)
⚪ Ind/Other 61,912 (9.8%)
Reps lead by 5,487 (+0.9 pp) so far.
1. TURNOUT IS TRACKING UNDER 2022
2022 final early vote: 1,214,631
2026 so far: 632,603 - 52% of it
To tie 2022: 97,005/day ballots needed for 6 straight days
Best day all cycle so far: 75,024 ballots
Projected finish at current pace: ~971,000 ballots = 80% of 2022
2. REPUBLICANS ARE BACK-LOADING INTO THE LEAD
Daily returns have flipped:
🔴 Reps +27,494/day
🔵 Dems +23,328/day
Maricopa margin:
7/9 - D+238 ballots (Then)
7/15 - R+9,287 ballots (Now)
Share of each party's 2022 early-vote total already banked:
🔵 Dems 57%
🔴 Reps 50%
⚪ Inds 44%
3. FAR FEWER INDEPENDENTS OPTED INTO THIS PRIMARY THAN 2022
61,912 independent ballots - 44% of their 2022 total
Share of electorate: 9.8% (2022: 11.6%)
Would need 2.3x their daily pace to match 2022
And the ones voting flipped:
2022 - R 60 / D 40
2026 - D 54 / R 46
