(1/5) 🗳️ AZ EARLY BALLOTS - 2026 LOOKS LIKE 2022 as of Oct 15 | 19 days out No data/evidence to support a blue wave so far. Every party is returning ballots at almost exactly the rate they did at this point in 2022. – at Arizona, USA

(2/5) Democrats lead returns by 7.0 points. In 2022 on this exact day they led by 7.1. Independents are 22.2% of returns, against 22.5% in 2022. Historically this is the Democrats' stretch of the calendar. It was in 2022 too. – at Arizona, USA

Political maps can be deceiving. Flat color ≠ turnout. So we built a terrain view: height is votes, color is who won them. Every Arizona race since 2022, down to the precinct. Plus live early-ballot returns, updated daily. See which precincts actually carry the votes, not just which ones are wide. Switch to any candidate and see their share at the same scale as the winner’s. Elections: stealth-analytics.com/electi… Early Ballots: stealth-analytics.com/early-… – at Arizona, USA

🗳️ AZ 2026 GENERAL - EARLY BALLOT TRACKER Statewide | as of Oct 13, 2026 More than 17,000 early ballots are back, of 3,239,727 issued. 21 days to Election Day. Returns so far, by party: 🔴R 31.5% 🔵D 46.0% ⚪Other 22.5% Against each party's share of registration: 🔴R −4.1 🔵D +17.9 ⚪Other −13.8 Too early for the map to take shape. 2026's first big mail batch hasn't landed yet; in 2022 returns quadrupled in a single day right about here. Daily: stealth-analytics.com/early-… – at Arizona, USA

🗳️ AZ 2026 GENERAL - Early Ballot Tracker Want to know who's actually voting? Follow Arizona's early ballot returns yourself, any time you want. Statewide down to county, CD, LD and precinct. Party split at every level. Returns measured against registration. 2022 alongside it, at the same days before election day. stealth-analytics.com/early-… – at Arizona, USA

🗳️ AZ 2026 GENERAL - Early Ballots Election season in Arizona has arrived. Early voting opens today. Maricopa County alone will account for a majority of votes cast in AZ come November; and an overwhelming majority of those votes will be cast by mail. Over 1,977,030 Maricopa voters are set to receive an early ballot. Requested, by party (GEN 2026): 🔴 R 34.9% 🔵 D 31.6% ⚪️ Other 33.5% Maricopa in 2022, for scale: 60.3% of every vote cast in Arizona 83.9% of its own vote came early Early returns 🔴 R 38.5% / 🔵 D 35.1% / ⚪️ Other 26.4%

AZ voters are telling us something very specific about November. Several polls of the Arizona general have landed in the last two weeks. Depending on the analysis, the Governor's race is anywhere from a dead heat to Hobbs by a couple. Ours has Hobbs +4.7. The story underneath is identical in all of them. Work down the ballot and the Democratic advantage disappears. By the offices nobody covers - Treasurer, Superintendent, Mine Inspector, Corp Comm - Republicans are winning outright. Independents open at D+19 for Governor and decay to even by Corporation Commission. Once independents go neutral, the race is decided by base composition, which Republicans win. Same pattern on the measures. Every one referred by the Republican legislature is leading, several by 30 or more, including the ones you'd expect to be a fight. These measures lead by 30 and 50 while the Republicans on the same ballot lead by 4 and 7. The agenda is running well ahead of the ticket. Republicans have until November to tie the two together. Trump's job approval in our sample is 40/47. That's the tell. The environment is taxing Republicans at the top of the ticket - and the tax runs out before voters finish the ballot. Which makes both plays simple: Democrats: The front-runner's job is to keep the ballot a referendum on the environment. Don't feed the fire. No debates, no free name ID for the other side. The atmosphere is doing the work for them. Stay disciplined and run it out to November. Republicans: Force the contrast. Focus on the relief the Republican Legislature passed, relief Hobbs blocked. Removing her removes that block. The ballot is doing the work for them. Stay on it and run it at Hobbs through November.