El hilo original en inglés, para quien quiera verlo:
xitter.cf/gurgavin/status/210939…
Me inspiré en el formato de @JavierMtzMorodo y su hilo del súper peso.
@JavierMtzMorodo @cometaolea ¿qué opinan? ¿Too good to be true? ¿Demasiado simplista para ganarle al índice?
I ran this backtest myself, 30 yrs of data
same rule, 35% stop, $100 in 1997: I get $246K, not $1.5M
biggest gap: the post uses SanDisk as 2025's #1. it spun off in Feb 2025, so it's not a full year. use Western Digital and that alone is ~3x less 🧵
don't go tight tho. 5-15% stops kick you out of the big winners
TSLA dropped 20% in 2021 and ended +50%. APP dropped 32% in 2025 and ended +108%
25-35% works best. 50%+ is too late
what I'd actually do: 70% index, 30% last year's #1 with a 30% stop. rebalance every Jan
backtest: 17.4%/yr vs 9.9% for the S&P
no taxes, fees or gaps in there. not advice












